1. Many analysts are now fully convinced that a large #escalation of #Russia's #war against #Ukraine is imminent. However, we should not discount the possibilty that the #Kremlin is still playing a #gameofchicken. A major war would be a sharp break with #Putin's past behaviour. 
2. The prospect of an imminent large war dictates negotiations and deescalation - possibly involving even concessions by Kyiv and the West. In contrast, a #chickengame demands calm, firmness, and composure. The apt strategy is then to not blink rather than to quickly compromise.
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