Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Mar 11 31 tweets 18 min read
NEW: NO progress for #Russia advance elements NW of #Kyiv - still about 15km from city center, per senior US defense official

BUT official says support elements are moving closer
#Chernihiv "is isolated & under increasing pressure" per senior US defense official
#Russia forces getting closer to #Kyiv from the east - now about 20-30km away, per senior US defense official
#Russia forces "closing in' on #Kharkiv, per senior US defense official

"We're seeing more reports of internet outages there" per official, "Lot's of fighting"

#Ukraine putting up stiff resistance
#Mariupol - "We continue to see heavy bombardment there" per senior US defense official

#Ukraine, "they're fighting back" per official
#Russia forces have not yet taken #Mykolayiv, per senior US defense official

#Russia has taken #Kherson, official adds
US confirms #Russia targeted airfields in #Lutsk & #IvanoFrankovsk in western #Ukraine with long-range fires, per senior US defense official

"Obviously they anted to eliminate the ability of the Ukrainians to use these airfields...don't know what the damage is" per official
Now up to almost 810 #Russia missile launches vs #Ukraine since start of conflict, per senior US defense official

Nearly 400 "have been fired from inside Ukraine" per official

Almost 400 from inside #Russia

80 from #Belarus

6 from #BlackSea
#Russia convoy to #Kyiv - "We do not blv the convoy has made any progress in linking up with other elements" per senior US defense official

Some vehicles have moved off the road and into the treelines "to try to better disguise the vehicles"
US aware of #Russia recruiting efforts in #Syria - "We haven't seen any indications their recruiting efforts have borne fruit" & led to the arrival of any forces, per senior US defense official
#Russia not moving in Russian reinforcements to #Ukraine - "We have not seen any indications, any tangible indications that they are trying to plus up their manpower from elsewhere [in Russia]" per senior US defense official
NEW: #Russia displaying a "general risk aversion" and not all of Russia's 200 sorties are flying into #Ukraine, per senior US defense official says

Some are avoiding Ukraine air space, firing cruise missiles into Ukraine Russian airspace
#Russia challenges in #Ukraine due to Ukraine's stiff, determined & creative resistance-"They are being adaptive & nimble...almost a hit & run kind of a style here" per senior US defense official
#Russia intel also failed on anticipating #Ukraine's will to fight

"We don't believe they figured that out" per senior US defense official
#Russia-"This is not a military that has great expeditionary capability & experience" per sr US defense officials "Nothing on this scale"

Russian air/ground ops still struggling w/coordination

Official adds even amphibious landings took place where no one would shoot back
#Ukraine making good use of #drones vs #Russia

"They're using them w/terrific effect, especially against Russian ground movements" per senior US defense official
#Ukraine air defenses - "They are making the caution of the #Russia|n pilots warranted" per senior US defense official

Notes #Kyiv only flying 10-15 sorties per day, relying on other tools/weapons
CORRECTION-#Ukraine flying 5-10 sorties a day, per US official
US cannot confirm any effort by #Russia to recruit mercenaries from #Africa to fight in #Ukraine, per senior US defense official
#Ukraine's air force - has about 56 fighter jets still operational, per senior US defense official

Notes Ukrainian forces flying only 5-10 sorties a day and have been relying on other weapon systems
US volunteers, vets wanting to go to #Ukraine - "You shouldn't be going" per senior US defense official

"There are other ways to help"
#Russia's repeated allegations abt a bio/chemical weapons attack - "This harping ... could be building some sort of pretext for a false flag event" per senior US defense official

"We think it possible this is the play their going to try to make...we don't have more details"
Potential for #Belarus to be drawn into war in #Ukraine

"They just haven't been drawn in" per senior US defense official "We just haven't seen it"
"We continue to urge Americans not to go to #Ukraine for any reason" per senior US defense official

Any Americans in #Ukraine should leave, official says
"We continue to flow security assistance to #Ukraine...as fast & as much as we can" per senior US defense official

Says another shipment on its way in nxt 24 hours
US helping to coordinate supply efforts to #Ukraine by 14 other countries, too, "for as along as we possibly can" per senior US defense official

Says efforts focused on air defense & anti-armor as far as munitions, as well as ammo, etc
"We're not vetoing" another nation giving aircraft to #Ukraine, per senior US defense official re #Poland-#Mig29s

"Given the SAM coverage [Russia] have over the country...It makes little sense to us that additional fixed-wing aircraft are gong to solve all these problems"
No indications any security assistance meant for #Ukraine has fallen into #Russia|n hands, per senior US defense official

No signs of Russia targeting weapons shipment so far
"No indications" #Russia-#China collaborating on disinformation campaigns "at least nothing organized" per senior US defense official

re: #Beijing repeating #Moscow's claims, "parroting the Russian line" on bio/chem weapons

#Ukraine
#Ukraine using drones for surveillance/recon & delivery of munitions, per senior US defense official
#Russia|n forces are in the NW suburbs of #Kyiv, per senior US defense official

From NE towards Kyiv, Russians "still bogged down in #Chenihiv", per official

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More from @jseldin

Mar 11
#ISIS names new leader, sounds a lot like the old leader

More on how the terror group is repeating some familiar patterns as it tries to recover from the death last month in NW #Syria of Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi...& the death of his top spokesman
voanews.com/a/islamic-stat…
NEW: @Reuters reporting the new #ISIS -announced by the nom-de-guerre Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi- is actually Juma Awad al-Badri

al-Badri is reportedly the brother of slain ISIS caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
reuters.com/world/middle-e…
MORE: The campaign to solidify support behind new #ISIS leader Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi getting underway

Pledges of bay'ah coming now, and being disseminated online, from ISIS fighters in #Kirkuk #Iraq

courtesy of @JihadoScope
Read 7 tweets
Mar 10
ICYMI: Pentagon says #NorthKorea ballistic missile tests on Feb 26 & March 4 " involved a new Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) system that the #DPRK is developing, which was originally unveiled...October 10, 2020" per @PentagonPresSec
MORE: "The purpose of these [#DPRK] tests, which did not demonstrate ICBM range, was likely to evaluate this new system before conducting a test at full range in the future, potentially disguised as a space launch" per @PentagonPresSec
MORE: US revealing info on #NorthKorea|n #ICBM tests "because we believe that the international community must speak in a united voice to oppose the further development and proliferation of such weapons by the #DPRK" per @PentagonPresSec
Read 4 tweets
Mar 10
BREAKING: #ISIS announces new leader-Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi

Per @siteintelgroup, new ISIS spox Abu Umar al-Muhajir, made the announcement in a speech posted online, acknowledging the deaths of the former leader & former spox Abu Hamza

photo via via @JihadoScope
Per @hxhassan & @Charles_Lister, appears speech was recorded within days of the death of former leader Hajji Abdallah (aka al-Mawla &other names) but just released now

@hxhassan says speech indicates new leader was selected by Abdallah prior to his death
#ISIS claiming its new leader has been in place since February

"The Islamic State's Shura Council did not delay...pledged allegiance to the great mujahid w/the refined sword Abu al-Hasan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi" per new spox Abu Umar al-Muhajir, via @siteintelgroup translation
Read 4 tweets
Mar 10
HAPPENING NOW - Senate Intelligence Committee holds open hearing on Worldwide Threats

Testimony coming from:

@ODNIgov Dir Avril Haines

@CIA Dir Bill Burns

@DefenseIntel Dir LtGen Scott Berrier

@NSAGov Dir Gen Paul Nakasone

@FBI Dir Christopher Wray Image
Senate Intel Comm Chair @MarkWarner starts w/praise for the US intelligence community for being candid w/intel on #Russia, #Putin's plans for #Ukraine & "throwing Putin off-guard"
"Democracy is sometimes messy" per @MarkWarner "I believe with all my heart the ppl of #Ukraine are voting with their lives, embracing the values that we take for granted every day"

"With all our flaws, our system is still the best in the world"
Read 41 tweets
Mar 9
NEW: @StateDept joining the push back vs #Russia|n claims of US funded bio & chem weapon labs in #Ukraine

"The Kremlin is intentionally spreading outright lies" per @StateDeptSpox "This Russian disinformation is total nonsense..."
MORE: @StateDept also says it has seen #China officials "echo these conspiracy theories" about biological & chemical weapon labs

"These claims have been debunked conclusively and repeatedly over many years" per @StateDeptSpox
"The #UnitedStates does not own or operate any chemical or biological laboratories in #Ukraine" per @StateDeptSpox

"#Russia is inventing false pretexts in an attempt to justify its own horrific actions in Ukraine"

Full statement:
Read 5 tweets
Mar 9
NEW: US readout of call between @SecDef Lloyd Austin and #Poland's Minister of National Defense Mariusz Błaszczak re #Ukraine

No specific mention of #MiGs but they discussed "how the United States and Poland could effectively provide assistance to the Ukrainian Armed Forces"
Earlier @PentagonPresSec said @SecDef told #Poland's Błaszczak, "We do not support the transfer of additional fighter aircraft to the Ukrainian Air Force at this time & therefore have no desire to see them in our custody either"

re #MiG29s
"We believe the best way to support #Ukrainian defense is by providing them the weapons & the systems that they need most to defeat #Russia|n aggression, in particular anti armor & air defense" per @PentagonPresSec, adding such systems being used by #Ukraine to "great effect"
Read 6 tweets

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