Thread by @jseldin

HAPPENING NOW - Senate Intelligence Committee holds open hearing on Worldwide Threats

Testimony coming from:

@ODNIgov Dir Avril Haines

@CIA Dir Bill Burns

@DefenseIntel Dir LtGen Scott Berrier

@NSAGov Dir Gen Paul Nakasone

@FBI Dir Christopher Wray

Senate Intel Comm Chair @MarkWarner starts w/praise for the US intelligence community for being candid w/intel on #Russia, #Putin's plans for #Ukraine & "throwing Putin off-guard"

"Democracy is sometimes messy" per @MarkWarner "I believe with all my heart the ppl of #Ukraine are voting with their lives, embracing the values that we take for granted every day"

"With all our flaws, our system is still the best in the world"

"I don't we can take our eyes off one of the other great challenges that our country & the world face...that is the strategic competitiveness of the Chinese communist party" per @MarkWarner

"#China is unlike any adversary that we've faced since the 2nd world war"

"This is probably the most important, I imagine watched worldwide threats hearing in my time in the US Senate" per Intel Comm Vice Chair @marcorubio

"The last 30 years were but a brief respite from the rhythms of human history bcs while much has changed abt humanity & our species, there is 1 thing that will never change-human nature" per @marcorubio

"#Putin's invasion of #Ukraine has especially horrified the Western world bcs we have grown accustomed to war&brutality being what happens in other regions, troubled regions far away..." per @marcorubio "But now the victims are ppl who are familiar to us"

"We may not be at war with #Russia but we most certainly in conflict w/#Putin" per @marcorubio

Praises work of US intelligence in accurately calling out Putin's plans "often days & weeks before the storm"

"This is a monster you cannot make a deal with. This is a monster that has to be defeated" per @marcorubio on #authoritarianism

Speaking now, @ODNIgov Dir Avril Haines

Repeating a warning from Tuesday's hearing in the House, @ODNIgov's Haines says,"Our analysts assess that #Russia, that #Putin is unlikely to be deterred...& instead may escalate the conflict"

re Invasion of #Ukraine

"#Putin probably still remains confident that #Russia can militarily defeat #Ukraine & wants to prevent Western support from tipping the balance & forcing a conflict w/@NATO" per @ODNIgov's Haines

.@MarkWarner asks, what happened to #Russia's #cyber ops during invasion of #Ukraine?

"We are watching every single day for any type of unusual activity" per @CYBERCOM_DIRNSA, noting concerns of #malware spillover, broad use of #ransomware attacks, attacks by cyber proxies

"We're 15 days into this. We've seen 3-4 attacks" per @CYBERCOM_DIRNSA "In terms of why there haven't been more, this is part of #Russia's own strategic calculus. But... a tremendous amount of work was done prior to the invasion" in #Ukraine, eslewhere

"Nothing is going to matter more to the future of @CIA & the intelligence community more broadly than our ability to compete technologically. It's the main area for competition w/#China" per @CIA Dir William Burns

HAPPENING NOW: @marcorubio asking about #Russia #disinfo on bioweapon labs, asking about difference between biological research facilities & bioweapon facilities

"Let me be clear. We do not assess that #Ukraine is pursuing either biological weapons or nuclear weapons...the propaganda that #Russia is putting out" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"#Ukraine operates about a little over dozen essentially biolabs & what they're involved in is Ukraine's biodefense & their public health response" per @ODNIgov's Haines "The US gvt provides assistance, or at least has in the past, really in the context of biosafety..."

"...which is something that we've done globally w/a variety of different countries" per @ODNIgov's Haines

#biodefense is "medical countermeasures" per @ODNIgov's Haines "Things that will help you to address a pandemic...things that prevent spreading of pandemics"

US help would be to make sure proper safety measures, she says

"This influence campaign is completely consistent w/longstanding #Russia|n efforts to accuse the #UnitedStates of sponsoring bioweapons work in the former #SovietUnion" per @ODNIgov's Haines

Facilities like #Ukraine biolabs "all have equipment or pathogens or other things that you have to have restrictions...you want to make sure they're being treated appropriately" per DNI Haines "We have to be concerned the same way we have to be concerned abt a nuclear powerplant"

#Russia|n allegation abt #Ukraine bio/chem weapons attack-"I think it underscores the concern that all of us need to focus on those kinds of issues, whether its the potential for the use of chemical weapons as a #falseflag operation or against #Ukrainians" per @CIA's Burns

"This is something...that's very much a part of the #Russia's playbook' per @CIA's Burns re chemical weapons

"They've used those weapons against their own citizens. They've at least encouraged the use in #Syria & elsewhere so its something that e take very seriously..."

US disclosure of intelligence preemptively-"We have had a great deal of effect in disrupting their tactics & their calculation, & demonstrating to the entire world that this is a premeditated & unprovoked aggression built on a body of lies" per @CIA's Burns

#Russia-#Ukraine

"This is one information war that I feel #Putin is losing" per @CIA's Burns

#Chernobyl - "We should be concerned" per @ODNIgov's Haines "But we haven't yet seen anything that brings us from concern to this is a complete crisis"

#Russia-#Ukraine

#Russia tactical nuclear weapons in #Ukraine - "We're very concerned...but...we have not yet seen posture changes that are beyond what we've seen previously during moments of tension" in #Crimea #Syria, per @ODNIgov's Haines

NEW: @FBI Dir Christopher Wray says #Russia, #Putin likely "overestimated" their ability to get around sanctions w/#cryptocurrency

#Russia propaganda efforts in Russia - "I don't believe that he's going to be able to seal Russians off entirely from the truth" per @CIA's Burns

"There are lots of Russians who have VPN account, who have access to YouTube, who have access to information"

Asked by @SenTomCotton abt assessment #Russia would view transferring #Poland's #MiGs to #Ukraine as "escalatory", @ODNIgov's Haines offers to provide the senator "w/a written product that will give you the basis..."

"Here's my opinion" per @SenTomCotton "We don't have new intelligence. This is opinion & in many cases this is policy makers looking to the intelligence community to provide them cover for their hesitancy"

#Russia #Ukraine #Poland #MiGs

"I don't think it's an issue of whether they're [#Russia] more likely to want a conflict. It's whether or not they perceive us as being in that conflict w/the" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"We're in a very challenging position where we are obviously providing enormous amts of support to the #Ukrainians, as we should & need to do, but at the same time trying not to escalate the conflict into a full-on @NATO or US war w/#Russia" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"Unlike #Russia, which does have chemical weapons & has used them & has done biological research & has for years, #Ukraine has neither" per @CIA's Burns

"In any public health system around the world there's going to be work done in the interests of wider public health to ensure that we have a grip on issues like, but that's in no way threatening" per @CIA's Burns

"... "That's not something that can be weaponized in the way the #Russia|ns have clearly demonstrated by their own actions against their citizens & ppl outside their country, their willingness to use" per @CIA's Burns

re Russia-#Ukraine-biolabs

"The danger here is the capacity the #Russia|ns have developed & that they've used in the past & their interest in trying to create false narratives" per @CIA's Burns

Threat from bio research facilities "in no way akin to the kind of threats that would be posed by weapons research & development" pr @CIA's Burns

#Rusia-#Ukraine

NEW: "President #Putin does not have a sustainable endgame in #Ukraine right now" per @CIA's Burns "So the question is he simply going to double down & grind down the Ukrainian military & the Ukrainian ppltn or..."

"...or at some pt does he recognize that reality that he doesn't have a sustainable endgame & look for ways to end the bloodshed & cut his losses" per @CIA's Burns

"Given #Putin's track record...that's probably a longshot"