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Andreas Umland Profile picture
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Mar 13 • 3 tweets • 4 min read
1. A suspected self-therapeutic narrative of #Russians & foreign #Putinists: If the #Russian state is doing such bad things to #Ukrainians, they surely must have done something even worse than that. #Putin would not openly behave with such #brutality out of sheer whim, would he?
PICTURE: An apartment building in Moscow in September 1999, after it was blown up, most probably by the Russian security service FSB. #Putin was then #Russia's new Prime-Minister and hoping to become the second #Russian President.
CC: @DavidSatter @YFelshtinsky @Marina_LondonUK
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More from @UmlandAndreas

Andreas Umland Profile picture
Mar 14
WHERE ON EARTH IS UKRAINE? A BRIEF REFLECTION ON RECENT GERMAN TALK SHOWS
1. No paradigm shift has yet happened in public German perceptions of the "#RussianWar:" For most politicians and commentators, #Ukraine keeps being far away. @UKRinDEU @GermanyinUA Image
2. Many #Germans subconsciously picture the war the following way. Of course, we are aware that formally #Ukraine is close. But, deep in our souls, we know that Ukraine lies between #Tibet and #Bhutan. Our #Germany, in contrast, is here, close, safe, and warm.
3. We want to keep it that way. Ukraine will have no choice but to stay behind the Himalayas while we will continue living in our old home, the #EU-#NATO continent. Such is life... Sure, we have lots of interest, empathy, and respect for #Ukrainians.
Read 5 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Mar 10
1. The #Ukrainians' short-term expectations of a defeat of Russia may be overly optimistic. Yet, the mid-term implications of the fundamental changes in the international images of #Russia and #Ukraine during the last two weeks may indeed lead to some sort of Ukrainian victory.
2. Russia's foreign ambitions were already before 2022 overstretched & disproportionate to the capacity of the Russian economy. Now the ambitions have become even more extravagant while the Russian economy is seemingly entering not a recession but a more or less deep depression.
3. On top of the currently imposed & forthcoming sanctions, there will be mounting further problems for Russia's economy resulting from (a) the gradual disengagement of risk-averse as well as ethically woke trade, research and investment partners, not least of the EU, and from...
Read 10 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Mar 7
1. Teile die Grundannahmen von @JohannesVarwick @ig_powi_halle @UniHalle in @RuhrNachrichten nicht. Die #EU zahlt weiter tagtäglich hunderte Millionen Euro für russisches #Pipelineöl und -gas an #Moskau. Sie stützt damit #Russland|s Staat sowie Wirtschaft. ruhrnachrichten.de/ueberregionale…
2. Die riesigen #Energierlieferungen sind durch eine riesige, immobile und schwer ersetzbare Exportinfrastruktur möglich. Daher ist dieser apodiktische Satz eine Spekulation: #Putin|s "Entschluss steht fest und ist aus meiner Sicht durch keine #Sanktion der Welt zu beeinflussen."
3. Solche Bewertungen unterstellen einen russischen #Fanatismus, ja #Fatalismus, den ich nicht sehe. Auch die Warnung vor einem möglichen russischen #Atomwaffeneinsatz gegen die #NATO bedient das kühl kalkulierte russische #Pokerspiel. @AtomwaffenAbisZ
Read 7 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Mar 4
How to create a non-NATO #NoFlyZone over #Ukraine, in five steps:
1. Secure a couple of West Ukrainian airports with enough anti-aircraft installations to make them usable.
@Konflikt_Sicher @UkrVerstehen @H__Ukraine @GSPSipo @ukraineoffice @PromoteUkraine @Global_Mil_Info
2. Present Ukraine several dozen decommissioned Western fighter planes (F-14, F-15, F-16, F-18...), and bring them to these West Ukrainian airports.
@intercourier_ua @CPD_UA @HorizonDefence @defence_centre @DefenceExpress
3. Find several Western dozen volunteer airforce veterans, and give them Ukrainian citizenship.
@AirForceTimes @AirForceMag @AirForceAssoc @MilitaryTimes
Read 8 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Mar 1
1. Allegedly, Poland may be ready to provide its airfields for EU-delivered Soviet-era fighter planes of Ukraine flying attacks against Russian troops over Ukrainian state territory.
2. This would fundamentally change the dimension of the war, as a NATO and EU member starts indirectly supporting #Ukraine's defense efforts. If it materializes, it partly answers Ukraine's request for a #NoFlyZone over Ukraine.
3. In case this becomes indeed possible, the remaining question would be how many able pilots and functioning planes Ukraine and its partners can bring together on Polish airports.
Read 8 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Feb 28
Somebody is unhappy & has complained to #Facebook/#Meta about my many shares concerning #Russia's #war against #Ukraine. @Facebook has blocked me til 6 March 2022. I complained on 27 February to @Meta that the block has plain political reasons. So far, the block remains in place.
It is not that my posts are exceptionally important. Yet, note that Russia wages an explicitly anti-Western #war in #Ukraine. I am the Western political scientist who has spent most time in Ukraine during the last 20 years (17). I am thus one, among many other, obvious targets.
UPD: Several colleagues kindly sent additional complaints to Facebook during the last half hour. As a result, I seem to have been just unblocked again. Thanks for the empathy and support! That was fast.
Read 5 tweets

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