Thread by @guy_laron

1. Most interesting presentation by a prominent Russian academic of the economic and geopolitical rationale behind a #ChinaRussia strategic alliance. This is a key piece of the puzzle of "how we got #Putin wrong when we thought he wouldn't invade."
globalaffairs.ru/articles/rossi…

2. All evidence coming from Russian independent journalists and American intelligence sources point to the same story: In Putin's mind #UkraineInvasion remained a possibility rather than a certainty until his summit with #XiJinping
Xi was key!
theintercept.com/2022/03/11/rus…

3. The meeting 4 February #Beijing summit was a turning point in Chinese-Russian relations and also a milestone in the development of post-Soviet Russian foreign policy.
That's the thing I got wrong here:
prospect.org/world/ukraine-…

4. I, and others, assumed that invading Ukraine would be an act of folly because that would close off the European energy market to Russian exports. #EU being Russia's no. 1 trade partner, that looked like a good reason to believe Putin was bluffing.

5. What we got wrong was that Putin was making two decisions at once: 1. Accepting a junior status in the alliance with China & 2. Taking Ukraine.
According to American intelligence sources, the invasion of Ukraine was discussed during the Beijing summit.
irishtimes.com/news/world/chi…

6. The Russians wanted the invasion to begin on 16 Feb. The Chinese asked that date to be pushed forward (as indeed happened).
As importantly, the summit was an occasion for the conclusion of two major deals on energy:
reuters.com/world/asia-pac…

7. and wheat:
edition.cnn.com/2022/02/25/bus…

8. Following the summit, the two leaders released a 5000-word communique in which Russia and China made clear their intention to challenge the unipolar world order reigning since the end of the Cold War in 1991.
scmp.com/comment/opinio…

9. Putin started setting things in motion only in the 1st week of Feb. after his return from the Beijing summit.
He ordered the Chechen militia to prepare for war:
bbcrussian.com/russian/featur…

10. requested a stress test to Russian banks to see whether they can withstand sanctions:
thebell.io/v-pravitelstve…

11. and Putin also instructed the Russian intelligence service, the FSB, to gather information on the level of trust in the government among the Ukrainian population:
rusi.org/explore-our-re…

12. Future historians will probably see a lot of parallels between the 2022 4 Feb. summit & the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact which also had a very important economic component:
jstor.org/stable/1432205…

13. And if the R-M pact led to the dismemberment of #Poland the 4 Feb. Xi-Putin pact led to the war in #Ukraine
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What are the key findings from the article from "Russia in Global Affairs" that began this thread?

14. This article is the Russian version of the "Pivot to #Asia " Thesis.

Argument 1: EU indeed is still trade partner no. 1 of Russia and China 'only' no. 2, but... the balance is shifting fast. The China trade is on the rise, while trade with EU is declining:

15. Argument 1a: Current Western sanctions will merely accelerate this trend. Even better, trade with China is safer than trade with the EU because China isn't expected to sanction Russia:

16. Implication 1: Yuanization of the Russian economy. This will be the clearest expression of a separate Russian-Chinese trade bloc and one of the clearest disruptions of post-1991 globalization :

17. Implication 2: a full reorientation of Russian infrastructure from West to East; from the EU to China.
Chinese companies will rebuild Russian infrastructure to suit China's needs.
Russia would become fully integrated into the #BeltandRoad scheme.

18. Example 1: The "speedy construction of the Soyuz Vostok gas pipeline (a continuation of Power of Siberia - 2)."

19. According to the writer, China'ss gains from the trade with Russia would be numerous: 1. secure supply of much-needed raw materials. 2. Safety from Western sanctions. 3. Turning the #yuan into an international reserve currency.

20. Chinese companies can fully replace Western ones and supply the same kind of deep and varied industrial base that exists in the West.
one area of vulnerability is the aviation industry. Here both countries are dependent on imported technology.

21. Therefore, "Strengthening cooperation in replacing Western civil aircraft is an urgent issue."

22. Wait! There's more. In fact, this is the juicer part.
Economic cooperation will have geopolitical.
In exchange for Chinese support for the war #Ukraine, China would get Russian cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.

23. As a result, "Russia will be forced to act in line with China's policy in Asia, not only to contain the United States, but also to confront the US allies, led by Japan."!

24. Even worse, Russia would be willing to give a "nuclear umbrella" to China in a situation in which it would confront the U.S.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how world wars begin...