Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Mar 29 20 tweets 18 min read
#Chechens in Ukraine: "They have their own little war in there" @vera_mironov tells @TheSoufanCenter webinar on #Ukraine-#foreignfighters

Says Chechen contingent fighting for #Russia includes prisoners, drug addicts, others who say they take orders only from Ramzan Kadyrov
MORE: Chechen units taking orders from Kadyrov "kind of settling their previous scores" but also being kept far from #Ukraine held territory so they don't defect, per @vera_mironov

There's also a group of #Chechens fighting for #Ukraine, she says
.@dbyman tells @TheSoufanCenter he's "worried there is an intersection" between white supremacist movement & foreign fighters in #Ukraine even if the numbers right now appear to be small
Those who return are better train, better networked - "the sort of thing violent extremist groups can take advantage of" per @dbyman

#Russia-#Ukraine war-#foreignfighters
"We do not see this as the same issue" as #Syria-#ISIS,
@NaureenCFink tells @TheSoufanCenter about #Russia-#Ukraine and #foreignfighters

BUT "The risk is that we start seeing a lot of changing motives...overlap..." in terms of Ukraine foreign fighter actions
"Things get messy...the biggest challenge is what to do upon their return" per @NaureenCFink

Battle-hardened individuals could be problematic, possibly more likely to advocate violence
"One constant is #antisemistism...horrible rhetoric" among all the supremacist groups & the far-right, per @TheSoufanCenter's Stephanie Foggett

#Putin "certainly learned how to court the far-right & he's really been able to tap into the real disdain they have" for the West
While America's far-right shares common enemies w/#Russia's #Putin, Putin is "trying to ensure they also share a common language" per @TheSoufanCenter's Foggett

"I worry that the far-right really represents a proxy..."
Experienced #foreignfighters - 3 battalions of #Georgians & some #Belarusians now fighting in #Ukraine FOR Ukraine on the front lines, per @vera_mironov

Ukraine not putting the lots of inexperienced #foreignfighters on front lines, she says
There are divisions among #foreignfighters - Americans who are pro-vaccine [#COVID19] go through #Poland while anti-vaxxers go through #Hungary, per @vera_mironov
#Ukraine not facing a shortage of fighters for its front lines vs #Russia, per @vera_mironov, so impacts of #foreignfighters having minimal impact

Some have already been sent home due to mental health issues, she adds
"Lots of anecdotes, a lot of smoke" when it comes to #Russia|n links to far-right & #foreignfighters but hard to confirm data, per @dbyman

#Russia|ns give funding/training to far-right groups across #Europe, he says

BUT #Russia also placing bets on some far-left figures
#Estonia|n intelligence was warning of #Russia cultivating ties to far-right, far-left in 2018...
voanews.com/a/networks-of-…
#ForeignFighters in #Ukraine often NOT being armed -"It's safer not to give them weapons" per @vera_mironov
#Russia's #Wagner Group has better units, more specialized units, experience in urban warfare, which is why #Putin is relocating them to #Ukraine, per @dbyman

"I'm skeptical this is going to make a substantial difference" overall, he says
"The step of establishing an official registration process...creating an official foreign legion" was a key mitigation measure by #Ukraine w/limiting potential harm from #foreignfighters, per @NaureenCFink
"We have to be careful in how we divide the pro-#Russia|n, pro-#Ukraine sides" per @NaureenCFink, saying some may this more in anti or pro Western terms
#ForeignFighters stuck in western #Ukraine -"They're all absolutely...frustrated" by being held back from the frontlines, per @vera_mironov

But unlikely they will be able to leave and join extremist groups to take part in the fight, she says
#Foreignfighters in #Ukraine - "It's not the sort of thing where individuals are able to float around" per @dbyman, on dangers frustrated fighters might present
#Foreignfighters in #Ukraine - "Many of them are fundamentally unfit to be in a war zone" per @dbyman "You have to worry about the ones that stick around and kind of get twisted by he whole thing"

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More from @jseldin

Mar 30
NEW: #Russia has repositioned a small number of troops arrayed vs #Kyiv over last 24 hours - some heading to #Belarus, per @PentagonPresSec

"None of them have repositioned to their home garrison" he adds
.@DeptofDefense believes #Russia likely to refit the moved troops and send them elsewhere in #Ukraine

Repositioning affects less than 20% of the troops arrayed vs #Kyiv - "They're leaving Kyiv & heading more to the north...away from the city" per @PentagonPresSec
NEW: "We would concur w/the conclusion that Mr. Putin has not been fully informed by his Ministry of Defense at every turn" per @PentagonPresSec
Read 10 tweets
Mar 30
Happening now - @US_EUCOM @SHAPE_NATO Commander Gen Tod Wolters testifies before the House Armed Services Committee

Ranking member @RepMikeRogersAL: "The #Russia|n offensive [in #Ukraine] appears to be stalled. If Russian casualties don't exceed 10,000, they soon will" Image
"The global response to #Russia's aggression has been remarkable..." per @DeptofDefense Asst Sec for Int'l Security Affairs Celeste Wallander

"Simply out, Russia's attempts to divide the #UnitedStates from its allies & partners have failed miserably" Image
HASC Chair @RepAdamSmith asks how shud US balance risk between supply #Ukraine w/weapons & not further provoking #Russia

@US_EUCOM's Gen Wolters: "My 1st answer is constantly. The conditions change second by second, day by day, week by week" Image
Read 12 tweets
Mar 30
NEW: Ahead of testimony before lawmakers later Wednesday, @CrowdStrike IDs new #Russia-linked #cyber group EMBER BEAR

EMBER BEAR "has operated against government and military organizations in eastern #Europe since early 2021, likely to collect intelligence from target networks" Image
"EMBER BEAR appears primarily motivated to weaponize the access &data obtained during their intrusions to support information operations (IO) aimed at creating public mistrust in targeted institutions & degrading gvt ability to counter #Russia|n cyber operations" per @CrowdStrike
.@CrowdStrike has "moderate confidence" EMBER BEAR targeted #Ukraine in January, February using the #whispergate wiper

EMBER BEAR not yet linked to any specific #Russia|n organization though its ops appear "consistent with other GRU cyber operations"
Read 4 tweets
Mar 29
HAPPENING NOW: @US_EUCOM @SHAPE_NATO Commander Gen Tod Wolters testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee
"This is a pivotal moment in #Europe w/generational implications" per @US_EUCOM's Gen Wolters

"#Russia's unprovoked & premeditated attack on #Ukraine has galvanized our allies & global partners," he adds
"As we face the largest conflict in #Europe in 3 generations our TransAtlantic alliance has responded in all warfighting domains" per @US_EUCOM's Gen Wolters

Cites air defense contributions from 11 allies, forward deployment from #Talinn to #Sophia
Read 8 tweets
Mar 28
JUST IN: @DeptofDefense releases 2-page fact sheet on 2022 National Defense Strategy

Top 4 priorities:
-Growing multi-domain threat posed by #China
-Deterring strategic attacks vs US, Allies, & partners
-Deterring aggression
-Building a resilient Joint Force/defense ecosystem
MORE: on priority #3 - deterring aggression, @DeptofDefense says it must be done "while being prepared to prevail in conflict when necessary, prioritizing the PRC [#China] challenge in the #IndoPacific, then the #Russia challenge in #Europe"
MORE: "The Department will remain capable of managing other persistent threats, including those from #NorthKorea, #Iran & violent extremist organizations" per @DeptofDefense fact sheet
Read 4 tweets
Mar 28
JUST IN: #Russia's #Wagner Group "has deployed to eastern #Ukraine" per #Britain's military intelligence, says @MickSmeathUK

“They are expected to deploy more than 1,000 mercenaries, including senior leaders of the organization, to undertake combat operations..."
MORE: #Britain's military intelligence assesses "#Russia has highly likely been forced to reprioritize #Wagner personnel for #Ukraine at the expense of operations in #Africa & #Syria" per @MickSmeathUK
#Britain's assessment is in line w/assessments by senior US defense officials

US said last week #Wagner Group mercs were in the #Donbas
Read 5 tweets

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