Fast #import growth has overshadowed some very good news in #Pakistan. The latest release of disaggregated #trade data by @StateBank_Pak reveals that the first nine months of FY22 showed #record high #exports in real terms, since there's statistics.
Short 🧵👇 w/ more results.
1\ #exports grew by 24.8% in the first 9 months of FY22 w.r.t. same period of FY21, reaching 23.7 bn for goods and 5.2 bn for services.
4\ In #services the transformation continues, with telecom and business services #exports growing fast. #knowledge intensive #exports keep scaling up. Maintaining this momentum is crucial. Keeping access to #inputs, investing in #connectivity will be crucial.
5\ Challenge, from an #external sustainability point of view is that #imports have grown even faster, at 39.9% w.r.t. first 9 months of FY21.
9\9 Sustaining the growth of #exports will require being careful about the way #imports are contained. Resorting to #import#duty increases will most likely backfire as they will hurt #exports. After all, #import duties are #export taxes in disguise. \end.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
With @StateBank_Pak releasing dissaggregated #trade data for December, we have a picture of the full 2021, which, despite #supply#chain disruptions worldwide, was 'good' for #Pakistan. Short thread below:
1\ #exports grew by 30.1% in 2021 w.r.t. 2020, with a strong pick up in merchandise, but also substantive in services.
On May 26th @StateBank_Pak released #Pakistan's disaggregated #trade statistics for April '21. We now have 10 months of the FY21. Some analysis in #thread below. 👇👇👇
The largest untapped #export potentials for #Pakistan are with #China, and with its own region, #SouthAsia, for about 13 and 12.5 billion respectively, stressing the importance #regional#integration initiatives. 3/n
1/n Since the turn of the century, #Pakistan has become a more inward oriented economy, with exports/GDP falling from 16 to 10%.
2/n As a result, #Pakistan's share of world markets fell from 16USD to 12USD out of every 1000USD traded between 1990 and 2019. #Bangladesh moved from 5 to 18USD in the same period. #Vietnam from 14 to 113USD!!!
Pakistan moved into a current account surplus after years of a deficit. There seems to be a debate on whether that’s a good or a bad thing. Are CAD “bad”? As with everything in economics, the answer is ‘it depends’. #PakThink 1/n
To understand why, let’s look at what is it that the CA balance shows. I wrote this a few years ago and can help clarify – Essentially composition of the CA balance and financing matter. #PakThink 2/n