Gonzalo Varela Profile picture
Apr 25 9 tweets 10 min read
Fast #import growth has overshadowed some very good news in #Pakistan. The latest release of disaggregated #trade data by @StateBank_Pak reveals that the first nine months of FY22 showed #record high #exports in real terms, since there's statistics.
Short 🧵👇 w/ more results.
1\ #exports grew by 24.8% in the first 9 months of FY22 w.r.t. same period of FY21, reaching 23.7 bn for goods and 5.2 bn for services.

#Pakistan #trade
2\ All top destinations show fast #export growth. Shipments to the #USA and to #China in particular.
3\ #textile #exports and #vegetable exports continue driving the growth, and pointing to the need of #diversification efforts
4\ In #services the transformation continues, with telecom and business services #exports growing fast. #knowledge intensive #exports keep scaling up. Maintaining this momentum is crucial. Keeping access to #inputs, investing in #connectivity will be crucial.
5\ Challenge, from an #external sustainability point of view is that #imports have grown even faster, at 39.9% w.r.t. first 9 months of FY21.
6\ Oil/mineral #imports driving the growth...
8\ while #imports of #machinery continue to support the expansion of #production capacity, particularly for the #export-oriented #textile sector.
9\9 Sustaining the growth of #exports will require being careful about the way #imports are contained. Resorting to #import #duty increases will most likely backfire as they will hurt #exports. After all, #import duties are #export taxes in disguise. \end.

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More from @gonwei

Jan 27
With @StateBank_Pak releasing dissaggregated #trade data for December, we have a picture of the full 2021, which, despite #supply #chain disruptions worldwide, was 'good' for #Pakistan. Short thread below:
1\ #exports grew by 30.1% in 2021 w.r.t. 2020, with a strong pick up in merchandise, but also substantive in services.

#trade #Pakistan
2\ To be sure, in #real terms, #Pakistan's #exports remain below its local max in 2011. So, no 'record exports' if we talk real terms and not values.
Read 9 tweets
May 28, 2021
On May 26th @StateBank_Pak released #Pakistan's disaggregated #trade statistics for April '21. We now have 10 months of the FY21. Some analysis in #thread below. 👇👇👇
#Pakistan #exports of #goods & #services grew by 6.2%., surpassing the US$25 billion mark. (2/n) Pakistan exports of goods and services, first 10 months of F
By #destination: substantial increases of shipments to #China and the #USA. Stability with #Afghanistan, and contractions in shipments to #UAE.

[#export growth to China and USA is confirmed by mirror data analysis] (3/n) Pakistan exports by destination, in million USD. (source SBP
Read 10 tweets
May 26, 2021
In the context of #Africa Day 2021, what's #Pakistan's untapped #export potential with that region? #thread 👇👇👇
We have recently estimated #Pakistan's export potential at about US$88 billion. The untapped portion of that is close to US$61 billion.

thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/884b60a… 2/n
The largest untapped #export potentials for #Pakistan are with #China, and with its own region, #SouthAsia, for about 13 and 12.5 billion respectively, stressing the importance #regional #integration initiatives. 3/n
Read 5 tweets
Nov 16, 2020
Wanted to analyze #Pakistan's #export performance, benchmarking with structural and aspirational countries, along 4 dimensions - #growth, #diversification, #quality, #survival. Thread below: 👇👇👇
1/n Since the turn of the century, #Pakistan has become a more inward oriented economy, with exports/GDP falling from 16 to 10%.
2/n As a result, #Pakistan's share of world markets fell from 16USD to 12USD out of every 1000USD traded between 1990 and 2019. #Bangladesh moved from 5 to 18USD in the same period. #Vietnam from 14 to 113USD!!!
Read 13 tweets
Nov 24, 2019
Nice article by @AliKhizar. To add to the dialogue, I'd like to share a few thoughts:
Pakistan moved into a current account surplus after years of a deficit. There seems to be a debate on whether that’s a good or a bad thing. Are CAD “bad”? As with everything in economics, the answer is ‘it depends’. #PakThink 1/n
To understand why, let’s look at what is it that the CA balance shows. I wrote this a few years ago and can help clarify – Essentially composition of the CA balance and financing matter. #PakThink 2/n
Read 11 tweets

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