ExTrac Profile picture
May 2, 2022 11 tweets 11 min read Read on X
1. Since last week, there have been a number of signs that #Russia may be planning to invade #Moldova.

In the last few days, there have been several likely false flag attacks in #Transnistria, events that have been amplified massively by a simultaneous influence campaign.
2. To track this, we analysed 169,000 posts shared across pro-war, #Kremlin-aligned communities on Telegram last week.

We sifted through this data for any mentions of #Transnistria, #Moldova, and #Tiraspol.

Here’s what it looks like.
3. The main claims are strikingly similar to those that emerged in the run-up to #Russia’s invasion of #Ukraine in February.

They revolve around pre-emptive justifications for war based on #Transnistria|n ‘insecurity’ and talk of #Ukraine’s ‘looming threat.’
4. On 25 April, there was a surge in pro-#Kremlin rhetoric around #Transnistria as supporters of #Moscow began to share news of a string of explosions in #Tiraspol.

#Transnistria was purportedly 'under attack.’
5. A day later on 26 April, #Kremlin supporters doubled down on this rhetoric, citing a video showing local security forces at high alert on the lookout for 'terrorist infiltrators.'

#Transnistria was 'in need of protection.’
6. Things came to a head later that day when new footage emerged showing ‘unknown gunmen’ who had ‘crossed illegally’ from #Ukraine shooting three RPGs at the MGB HQ in #Tiraspol.

There was now ‘evidence’ of Ukrainian involvement.
7. In the days since, pro-war communities have also been sharing a video clip of a Moldovan woman saying ‘#Russia|n soldiers will be greeted with bread, salt and wine’ when they come to #Moldova.

Per this line, #Moldova|ns ‘want’ #Moscow to invade.
8. They’ve also been reiterating their claims of #Ukraine’s 'looming threat.'

Here’s a poster they recently attributed to #Ukraine. Text reads 'liberate #Transnistria’ in Ukrainian and Moldovan.

On closer inspection, it's a remake of a Soviet poster from WWII.
9. In any case, so far, this is almost exactly the same military/info playbook that #Moscow deployed immediately before its invasion of #Ukraine.

That said, it’s much smaller in scale, and there hasn’t (yet) been a large spike in comms akin to that which we saw in February.
10. What seems clear on the back of all this is that #Transnistria has indeed been tabled as an option for #Moscow.

The justification narrative has been set out clearly, with both ‘threats’ from #Ukraine and ‘invitations’ from #Moldova.
11. We’ll be continuing to follow this closely in the coming days.

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More from @Ex_Trac

Nov 17, 2022
1. In recent months, we’ve been tracking chatter about the World Cup in #Qatar across #IS, #AQ, and Shi'a militant group (#SMG) networks online.
2. Interest has been fairly limited in #AQ & #SMG ecosystems but #IS|ers have been calling for attacks, with momentum for these calls spiking in recent days.

Graphs show incidence of posts with “Qatar” (yellow), “World Cup” (blue), and “football” (red).

1: #SMG; 2: #AQ; 3: #IS
3. One #IS call-to-arms singles out teams / supporters of Coalition member states, above all #US and #France.

There have also been multiple assertions that attacks needn’t happen only in #Qatar, the logic being that an attack anywhere during the WC will be maximally disruptive.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 10, 2022
1. Time for a status update on #IS.

We’ve been collecting and analysing #IS comms and chatter continuously for the last few years.

This is what the short- (50-day) and long-term (200-day) rolling averages look like for #IS attacks as of 10 October 2022.
2. In #Syria, after a three-fold decline across 2020/21, #IS’s reported activities have been hovering at roughly the same level since last summer.

Note that there was a fleeting surge after the #Ghwayran prison-break, but nothing sustained.

See tweet #12 for caveat.
3. In #Iraq, #IS’s network is seemingly in a similar place.

These days, less than half as many attacks are being reported on average compared with this time in 2020 and 2021.

See tweet #12 for caveat.
Read 13 tweets
Sep 20, 2022
1. In his latest statement, #IS spokesman Abu ‘Umar al-Muhajir spoke at length about #IS’s targeting of Christian communities in #Africa.

This continent-wide campaign is likely to intensify across #Mozambique, #DRC, and #Nigeria in the next few months, peaking in December.
2. As part of this, Muhajir spoke about recent developments in #Mozambique.

September has seen #IS’s cells penetrating further south there than ever before, razing "Christian villages" to the ground as they go.

L: #IS-related violence in 2021
R: #IS-related violence in 2022
3. At the beginning of this month, about 20 #IS fighters from #CaboDelgado crossed the #Lurio river and entered #Nampula province.

Up until that point, #Nampula state had seen just one attack claimed by #IS. As of today, that number is at eight and counting.
Read 7 tweets
Aug 11, 2022
1. Following the explosions at #Saky airbase on Tuesday, satellite imagery (from @Planet) of their aftermath has emerged.

Multiple buildings and aircraft were destroyed – with at least three distinct craters clearly apparent.

L: 9 Aug
R: 10 Aug
2. Several aircraft housed in 3-sided berms were destroyed, while others closer to the apparent impact craters seemed to survive.

There are a few possible explanations for this (for e.g., some aircraft may have been carrying munitions while others were not).

L: 9 Aug
R: 10 Aug
3. In videos shared across pro-#Kremlin Telegram that had reportedly been shot immediately after the first 'strike,' smoke can be seen billowing before a large explosion at the site.
Read 9 tweets
Jul 29, 2022
1. The attack on #Kabul Cricket Stadium is as yet unclaimed, but it’s worth noting that, as of today, #ISKP has been inactive for 13 days in a row.

That’s the longest period since September 2021, when it was gearing up to launch the most intensive campaign in its recent history.
2. This summer’s slump has seen #ISKP become somewhat sidelined as an issue in #Afghanistan.

This graph shows mentions of the keyword “Daesh” on #Taliban social media since mid-2020.

Note how things peaked in Q4 2021 when #ISKP was at its most virulent.
3. We’ve also seen a slump in official #ISKP media releases (as in, those published through #IS’s Central Media Diwan).

Importantly, this lull hasn’t been reflected in the activities of #ISKP’s less globally prominent Pashtu and Dari media offices.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 25, 2022
1. Over the last few days, we’ve been tracking a major new influence campaign being deployed by the #Taliban in #Afghanistan.

On 22 July, its networks on Twitter and Telegram were three times more active than usual – more active than they've been across all of 2022 to date.
2. This surge was the result of a defensive comms campaign aimed at legitimising the #Taliban, sparked when @Meta banned its media agencies, Bakhtar/RTA, last week.

In the wake of that, thousands started tweeting #BanTaliban in the hope that @Twitter would follow suit.
3. Responding to this, the #Taliban launched its own campaign, #AfghansSupportTaliban, on 22 July.

Within three days, it was shared more than twice as many times as the initial anti-#Taliban hashtag (200k+).

Here’s where it all started.
Read 10 tweets

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