While there is still considerable uncertainty over the forecast for #inflation, we think both Core #CPI and #PCE inflation peaked in March and February, respectively, and should move appreciably lower by the end of 2022. 
Throughout the pandemic, strong disposable #income and limited services spending fueled consumer #spending on goods and high goods volumes created #bottlenecks and extreme #inflation.
Eventually, excessively easy #MonetaryPolicy caused this robust #inflation to broaden into less disrupted categories.
And while we think this excessive #inflation is likely to moderate in the next several months, in part due to the massive #BaseEffects at play in the data, above target inflation is likely to continue to be an issue for the #Fed well into 2023.
That’s at least partly because #SupplyChains will take time to improve, and we may well be past peak #globalization, as measured by trade’s share of global #GDP.
In our view, the right-tail #risks of persistent #inflation are greater than the potential for sub-2% inflation anytime in the near future, as war in Ukraine and #deglobalization potential present dramatically changed prospects for prices in the years ahead.
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