By all accounts, the NRF have launched a major offensive against the #Taliban across #Panjshir today -- taking multiple districts.

No doubt the #Taliban can respond in force, but it's yet another sign (beyond #ISKP) that #Afghanistan's new rulers are far from unchallenged.
NEW - x7 rockets fired into #Tajikistan from #Afghanistan.

In one month, #Pakistan, #Uzbekistan & #Tajikistan have all been hit by cross-border attacks, and #Iran affected by border clashes.

Tajik incident comes amid NRF (long associated with #Dushanbe) offensive in #Panjshir.
#ISKP have claimed today’s cross-border rocket attack on #Tajikistan.

This comes weeks after a similar volley was fired into #Uzbekistan & amid #TTP cross-border attacks into #Pakistan & clashes along the #Iran border.

#Taliban coming under mounting pressure.
Remember, the US-#Taliban deal stipulated that the #Taliban would prevent #Afghanistan from becoming a launching pad for attacks into foreign soil.

In 2 months, attacks have hit (1) #Pakistan, (2) #Uzbekistan, (3) #Tajikistan & threatened (4) #Iran.

Not good.

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More from @Charles_Lister

May 3
NEW - @USAmbUN says that while U.S. chairs UNSC in May, @SecBlinken will chair a UNSC meeting on the intersection between food insecurity & conflict.

The U.S. will also chair x3 meetings on #Syria:

- Humanitarian on 20th
- Chemical weapons on 23rd
- Political situation on 31st
@USAmbUN @SecBlinken .@USAmbUN also announces that on May 18, the U.S. will convene & @SecBlinken will chair a Ministerial meeting at the UN, focused on food insecurity & conflict, amid #Russia's war in #Ukraine.

Vitally important, as food crises worsen by the week in #Africa & the #MiddleEast.
@USAmbUN @SecBlinken .@USAmbUN on the upcoming UNSC July vote on cross-border access into #Syria:

"It's important that we do everything in our power to keep cross-border assistance flowing into #Syria.. cross-line is clearly not enough.. I will do everything I can do expand the [existing] mandate."
Read 4 tweets
May 3
#Russia's invasion of #Ukraine catalyzed a massive U.S. & #NATO pressure campaign -- sanctions, weapons etc.

Good.

For years in #Syria, #Russia bombed hospitals, IDP camps & schools; besieged 100,000s; covered for CW use & more.

The response? Nothing. Not even x1 sanction.
I know it's been said before, but I still find it hard to wrap my head around just how cold & risk averse the U.S. & allies were over #Russia's role in Syria.

And the costs are just staggering -- not just to #Syria & its neighborhood, but to the world at large. What an error.
In #Syria, the US line was it didn't matter & *any* push-back would risk WW3 with #Russia.

The risk in #Ukraine was infinitely higher, yet our action was swift & firm -- & effective.

The distinction is hard to swallow, especially w. 500,000 dead & 12 million displaced 11yrs on.
Read 4 tweets
May 2
U.S. & NATO assistance to #Ukraine has had an extraordinary effect so far -- but triumphant talk of 'winning' is premature & dangerous.

Yes #Russia is on the backfoot, but it's got room to adapt & drag this out into more favorable dynamics.

My warning:

politico.com/news/magazine/…
Amid optimism over #Ukraine, let's also remember the invasion still happened -- 11 million civilians have been displaced; towns/cities turned to rubble; & 10,000s civilians killed.

#Putin rode a wave of impunity we paved for years prior -- it'll take a long time to redraw norms.
For #Russia, this war didn't begin 2 months ago -- it began in 2014. This is the latest phase in a long war.

Like #Syria, a nationwide campaign has proven untenable, but pivoting to a piecemeal campaign can create more sustainable conditions in which #Ukraine faces the pressure.
Read 7 tweets
May 2
In 2021, #Assad's regime produced & exported ~$30 billion worth of #Captagon -- roughly 35x #Syria's legal exports.

That *enormous* operation cemented #Syria's status as a narco state of international significance.

My latest, for @MiddleEastInst:

mei.edu/publications/w…
@MiddleEastInst The regime's integral role in #Syria's #Captagon industry is well known -- and Maher al-#Assad is *the* central figure.

Drugs are literally the lifeblood of #Assad's regime & it's destabilizing the #MiddleEast. Dozens have died in #Jordan in recent months in border clashes.
@MiddleEastInst Despite how much is known & although #Assad's regime remains the most infamous perpetrator of war crimes in the C21st, the world is clearly ignoring the #Captagon threat.

In #Jordan, where it's turned deadly, authorities continue to engage with the very regime behind the threat.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 18
After 11yrs of sustained, brutal war crimes & crimes against humanity -- and 48hrs after the @nytimes published evidence of #Assad's mass graves, concealing 10,000s of murdered prisoners.

We have more evidence against #Assad than we had against #Hitler at #Nuremberg.
@nytimes From late-'21 to early-'22, a sustained pressure campaign from the U.S put a big obstacle in the way of regional normalization with #Assad -- & the "Small Group" was restructured accordingly.

#Russia & #Ukraine appears to have dissolved that delay altogether -- full speed ahead.
@nytimes To millions of Syrians, having #Assad visit the #UAE on March 18 -- the anniversary for many of the uprising -- is a gut punch of a the highest order.

The timing just cannot be a coincidence.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 14
NEW -- #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine has killed #Syria diplomacy & will trigger an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.

To adapt to this challenge, I propose a bold new approach -- "Freeze and Build" -- focusing more strategically on aid/stabilization:

mei.edu/publications/f… Image
The war in #Ukraine has severed all meaningful U.S.-#Russia diplomatic contact, & the same for #Europe.

#Moscow is more likely than ever to veto cross-border aid at the UNSC in July & #Syria's wheat supplies are lower than ever -- a famine in 2022 is now very much on the cards. ImageImage
Amid a severing of diplomatic contact w. #Russia (except for #JCPOA talks), x2 officials tell me #Moscow has stopped answering the #Syria deconfliction line -- and x1 U.S. DOD official confirmed #Russia has resumed "unsafe and unprofessional" actions around U.S. forces in the NE. Image
Read 9 tweets

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