Kyle Orton Profile picture
May 12 30 tweets 20 min read
Thread: 12 May 2022: Day 78 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz knows from experience of living in a country ravaged by #Russia that #Ukraine will have to deal with scattered unexploded munitions for a long time, and his message on stopping the evasion of the sanctions is good, too.
#Finland's President and Prime Minister sign a joint statement: "Finland must apply for #NATO membership without delay"
These half-measures from the #US continue to baffle: why provide #Ukraine intelligence to wage the war and kill #Russians, but somehow try to restrict Kiev's ability to launch retaliatory strikes against the invader or kill Russians of a certain rank?
Thread. Notable: even #Russia's overnight airstrikes on #Ukraine are now confined to the south-east. Ukrainian forces being encircled in Donetsk, Russia pushing on Popasna (Luhansk), consolidating in Kherson, and nibbling at Mykolaiv. But Kharkiv is lost.
#Russia now losing tanks deep within territories occupied in #Ukraine in 2014. Kiev's access to drones and other advanced weapons mean the "control" maps are in need of qualification, if Russian-held territories can be destabilised remotely like this.
"If #Ukraine had been part of #NATO before the war, there would have been no war", said President Zelensky in a speech to students at the French University Sciences Po. reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Pivoting from "#Ukraine will collapse quickly and welcome us", #Russia's propagandists explain the trouble in terms of an American-controlled Ukrainian army with a Nazified officer corps and - the real strength! - a rank-and-file that is really Russian
This is from two months ago ... As it turned out, the #Ukrainians on the ground were correct about the #Russian army they were facing
#Russia's invasion has erased all the space in #Ukraine where identity, culture, and even allegiance was quite fluid: all this Russian "soft power" existed only in addition to the Ukrainian identity; as soon as they made it binary, they lost everything.
#Japan confirmed its unified view with #Finland on how to deal with #Russia, and statements were made about a common approach to #China, too. japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/gener…
A #Russian Spetsnaz officer involved in the theft of Crimea and in the missions to #Syria and #Libya has been killed in #Ukraine
Not totally surprising since the overlap between QAnon and Russian state messaging might not be as coincidental as all that
The #Russian advance in Luhansk is of exactly the nature one would expect
#Britain's intelligence report: Despite #Russia making minor headway in Donbas, #Ukraine gaining ground around Kharkiv, a "tacit recognition of Russia's inability to capture Ukrainian cities where they expected limited resistance from the population"
Map via @ua_industrial showing the concentration of #Russian mobile telephones in #Ukraine.
"Siemens to withdraw from Russia after 170 years" standard.co.uk/business/sieme…
Short-termism again from the Kremlin: severing energy links between #Russia and #Finland will force a change on the Finns that would otherwise have taken ages and may never have happened. Now, after a brief disruption, the Russians will never come back.
"If this president of #Russia was a normal person, then it would be possible to make predictions": Mustafa Dzhemilev, the leader of the Crimean #Tatar Muslims, speaks about the situation of his people in #Ukraine after the Russian invasion. newlinesmag.com/essays/the-suf…
.@NetGulagu reports that out of 30,000 #Russians asked the question, "Do the policies of Vladimir Putin's government, and the actions of his army and special services, protect your rights and interests?", a decisive 88% said, "No".
Really not sure #Russia wants to get any further into this game of trying to put conditionality on recognising borders and independent states, with #Lithuania or anyone else: it is playing a very bad hand whether the metrics chosen are historical or moral
Turkey tried to negotiate the surrender of Azovstal, the last Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol, and a prisoner exchange to get the Russians back some of their thousands of POWs, but Moscow refuses because it wants Zelensky to order the surrender
#Finland has a way of dealing with #Russia that is a little different from the "leading" EU states, France and Germany

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More from @KyleWOrton

May 13
One of the defensive responses to #Germany's policy on #Ukraine has been: "Look at how many refugees we have taken". God bless those who shelter refugees. The problem with this as a policy metric, though, is that it doesn't register success, but very nearly the opposite.
Should say: in conversation with someone from #Britain, this is usually a not-so-subtle counter-attack on our policy in this area, and there is a point. But it doesn't alter the fact: taking refugees from #Ukraine is not a measure of how this is going.
Taking in refugees is something that has to be done when a country has been devastated - or during the process of that happening. Most people who flee would like to go home; many #Syrians certainly would, and the fact so many cannot is a measure of our failure since 2011.
Read 5 tweets
May 13
Thread: 13 May 2022: Day 79 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
The BBC doing in #Russia the kind of journalism its "impartiality" doctrine often keeps it from doing at home
- Russian airstrikes in the south, inc Mariupol, but hesitant beyond that in bad weather
- Ukrainian airstrikes on Russian-held zones
- Russian force around Izyum showing signs of strain
- Ukraine pushing back in Mykolaiv
- Some explosions north of Kherson
Read 10 tweets
May 12
Protais Mpiranya, the most-wanted war criminal in Africa, leader of #Rwanda's presidential guard during the genocide, has been found, buried in Zimbabwe under a false name. He has been there since 2006 courtesy of a tuberculosis-induced heart attack. ft.com/content/1cbe90…
Protais Mpiranya fled into Cameroon and then the Congo, where he fought against Kagame's Rwanda after it invaded in 1996 to uproot the genocidaire encampments like Goma, and fought under Mugabe's sponsorship during the African World War (1998-2003).
With Mpiranya's death confirmed, there are now five of #Rwanda's genocidaires who are wanted by the UN Tribunal, though their prosecutions would take place in Rwanda itself:

1) Fulgence Kayishema, a Judicial Police Inspector from Kibuye
Read 6 tweets
May 11
Thread: 11 May 2022: Day 77 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Croatia alarmed by #Hungary's irredentist noises. Have been similar problems with #Ukraine.
The equivalent of the whole population of Estonia has been deported from Ukraine to Russia.
Read 34 tweets
May 10
Thread: 10 May 2022: Day 76 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Grim that #Russia's messaging has such a hold over the émigrés, who do not have to make the horrible calculations those inside the country do about personal safety when deciding how far they will or won't deviate from the state narrative.
#US on the electronic warfare capacities it has supplied to #Ukraine
Read 27 tweets
May 4
Thread: 4 May 2022: Day 70 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Belarus is to stage a "combat-readiness check" with its whole army, though assures one and all they mean no harm, despite the state being virtually annexed by #Russia several months ago and being the launchpad for the attack on #Ukraine's capital
Read 43 tweets

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