Thread by @anasalhajji

Thread on the risks of Europ's increased dependence on US LNG
1- Among the pillars of energy security:
a- Diversification of energy sources
b- Diversification of energy imports
c- Low volatility of energy prices
d- Affordability and reliability
#Russia #Natgas #LNG #EU

2- Answer the following:
a- Who benefited the most from stopping Nordstearm 2?
b- Who was the Marketing-in-Cheif of US LNG?
c- Who took advantage of Russian invasion of Ukraine to secure US LNG market share in Europe?
d- Which country is the largest gas exporter to Europe now?

3- Europe has not learned its lesson... yet!

- All they are doing now is shifting dependence from the "mined" fossil fuels to the "mined" minerals needed for the "claimed" carbon neutrality.
and most importantly: shifting Europe's dependence from Russian gas to US gas!
#Russia

4- The risks of depending on US LNG imports are too many. There will be a time when Europeans will regret such a move. 9 risks are listed below.

- First: Increased dependence on the spot market means higher volatility & prices
#LNG #Russia #USA

5- LNG
Second: LNG is costlier than piped gas. Competition among European countries & between Europe & Asia will increase the cost further. As Europe implements additional climate policies, its dependence on imported LNG will increase, adding additional cost to energy transition

6- US LNG
Third: US LNG plants on the shores of the Gulf of Mexico and shipped to Europe from the Gulf of Mexico. What will happen in Europe when hurricanes hit the Gulf of Mexico? What if they were destructive hurricanes?
What about floods?
Remember #Katrina and #Rita?

7- US Natural gas prices
Fourth: Most LNG prices outside the US are linked to oil in one way or the other. What will happen in Europe if oil prices decline & US LNG cannot compete in Europe? What will Europeans do when they see non-US LNG cheaper than US LNG?
#LNG #China #India

8- US Politics
Fifth: US policies & politics change quickly, especially with the short election cycles. Remember how Trump withdrew the US from various international organizations & agreements?
As nat. gas prices increase, US politicians will ask for lower LNG exports to Europe.

9- Global Competition
Sixth: In a tight global LNG market, US LNG supplies will go to the highest bidder. Europeans have no choice but to pay the highest price, suffer shortages, or find a way to get Russian natural gas! It will take years to replace Russian gas supplies. #LNG

10- LNG Maintenance
Seventh: LNG plants on both sides require longer downtime for maintenance than pipelines. For now, such maintenance means lower supply. It will take Europe time to build additional gas storage to compensate for a decline in supplies due to this time difference

11- Shipping Cost
Eighth: Shipping via tankers is one of the reasons why LNG is more expensive than piped gas. In a tight market, with LNG tankers changing destinations, shipping rates increase. With sanctions on Russian LNG tankers, rates will go even higher.
#LNG #China #India

12- Cyber Attacks on LNG facilities
Ninth: Putin supporters might resort to cyberattacks on LNG facilities. The LNG market is so tight to the extent the world cannot afford to lose one facility.
Attacks on various targets have failed in recent weeks, but what if?
#CyberSecurity

13- Conclusion
Looking at Europe from an energy security point of view, it is clear that shifting dependence from Russia to the US does not solve Europe's problem. In fact, it will most likely make the situation worse given the number of risks and vulnerabilities.