Thread by @HannaNotte

The imperative that we must not waver in supporting #Ukraine is reinforced by a factor we often overlook in our #West-centric bubble:

#Russia is not isolated globally.

Pushing back against Russia thus 1) takes extra effort & 2) is of strategic importance beyond #Ukraine (1/11)

For proof that #Russia is not isolated, look toward big parts of Asia, LatAm, Africa, Middle East. Voting patterns at #UNGA. Who hasn’t joint sanctions against #Russia. How media beyond the "West" reports on the war in #Ukraine. And most of all: Look at #China and #India. (2/11)

Let’s take #MiddleEast: Sure, there’s few staunch supporters of #Russia (Syria). Most "sit on the fence": Reluctant to join sanctions; Saudis/UAE won't pump more oil; Even #NATO ally (!) #Turkey & closest US ally #Israel tread cautiously due to security concerns vis Russia (3/11)

I recently testified to US House Foreign Affairs Committee on this, laying out perceptions of #RussiaUkraineWar across #MENA & arguing why states will likely continue “fence-sitting”, even as the war creates food security threats to them directly! (4/11) foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearings?ID=4B…

Though it may go unnoticed in our #West-centric bubble, #Russia is now highly active diplomatically to ensure the “non-West” continues this “fence-sitting”.

Just look at who #Lavrov & RUS diplomats meet with these days.

Scroll though @mfa_russia website to get a sense. (5/11)

Again, in #MiddleEast, #Lavrov just went to Algeria & Oman. He’s headed to Bahrain & Saudi (!) in coming days. Most Arab FMs visited Moscow post- Feb 24.

Doesn’t look like full isolation to me, though Western officials like to imply it's happening: state.gov/the-administra… (6/11)

This is not to argue that Western sanctions against #Russia & current aid to #Ukraine are inconsequential. Far from it

But it does suggest we need to be extra staunch in supporting #Ukraine & making sure it doesn’t gradually slip off the agenda because our societies tire, (7/11)

...because we feel the economic impact of sanctions at home, etc.

Especially since Russia's non-isolation might further amplify a feeling in Moscow - however cautious it may be at this time - that one could “win this thing” after all:

https://twitter.com/SabFis3/status/1530496336814039041

(8/11)

First, #Russia has alternatives: Since it can turn to #China et al for econ. interaction (with limits, but still!), decimating its ability to wage war will be harder.

Hence a need for perseverance in supporting #Ukraine defense needs. Or in case of #Germany, to get going! (9/11)

Second, perceptions matter: if feeling of Western societies tiring—only 3 months into this war—seeps in and dominates narrative across "non-West", conclusions drawn will include: Russia “hangs in there” vs. West is “decadent and weak”.

Plus, “aggressors can get away”. (10/11)

The implications for #Ukraine – and for global order – would be far-reaching and, I would submit, not pretty. (11/11)