Thread by @IndoPac_Info

#THREAD: 1) It seems to me that #China has chosen a phased approach of limited military measures to squeeze #Taiwan here & there, on & off, pressure & release tactics, coupled with long term economic retaliation.

Southern Okinawa Japanese islands are also in China's crosshairs.

2) Here, the Global Times talks about #PLA military drill areas becoming a threat to #Taiwan's ports & shipping lanes, forming a blockade as a step to achieve reunification by force in the future.

Also a good way to test a US response.

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1554712334685261824?s=20&t=AdzXUUpeAkISIQPT1VdtMw

3) This would be a calibrated approach, designed to hurt enough, but not too much that can trigger a war or US intervention.

But...... If Taiwan fires on Chinese forces to stop the blockade, then China has the excuse to go with full force, or could take small Taiwanese islands.

4) China could take small Taiwanese islands next to China's coast + Pratas & Itu Aba islands in the #SouthChinaSea which are indefensible.

These are low risk actions that are unlikely to bring US intervention, but would allow Xi to declare an easy victory.

5) The end game of the phased approach could very well be a full invasion of Taiwan.

If that's the case, October is the month to watch, since that's when the Taiwan Strait waters are calm, which facilitates amphibious operations. Such conditions won't happen again until April.

6) Taking #Taiwan would be a massive undertaking and preparations would take months, but some sources say that the decision was taken earlier this year and preparations have been quietly going on for months.

The leak of a meeting in May provided details.
indianarrative.com/world-news/exp…