_GTTG-Trades_ Profile picture
Sep 25 19 tweets 15 min read
Did someone warn you of the current #inflation, #recession, and #bearmarket in equities? Did you get out or reallocate in time? Breaking even? Maybe even profit?
Did you pay a subscription for those warnings late last year?
I started warning friends about it in 2016.

Read on🧵
When I said that I was warning my friends about it in 2016, I did so because it was clear that #Trump would not be a good president for the US & world #economy long-term, and would increase the odds of #inflation and rising #interestrates.

Late 2016 DMs in Norwegian to a friend: Image
But why am I not linking Twitter screenshots? Well, I haven't been on here for even two years yet, so my oldest conversations are in private FB chats with friends and family, as those were the only people I tried to warn.

2018 chats about #Euribor annual hedging puts re #ECB: Image
While I was trying to convince friends that rates could rise far faster than bankers were willing to admit (or even warn about), I was often met with skepticism.

Usually from friends with Adjustable-Rate Mortgages.

2018 chats about the infallibility 🙄of central bankers: Image
April 11th, 2018:
Laying out my theory of what would unfold over the coming years.

Getting the catalyst wrong (pandemic ended up being the match), I perfectly predicted everything we are currently experiencing with #bearmarket in #bonds, #USA then #ECB raising #interestrates: Image
June 11, 2018:
"Then the question becomes - is the #ECB wrong? Will #inflation surpass 2%? What if they fail?"

Talking about buying ridiculously cheap #Euribor puts. Image
March 18th, 2020:
Reentering a small #eurodollar puts position due to #COVID, seeing it as a potential catalyst to unleash the long-anticipated chaos. Image
June 14th, 2020:

"Positioning to be lucky, not to be right", needing patience before #inflation/#bond #bearmarket will move after a slow creep in #yield, 2nd and 3rd order consequences of #covid stims, #FederalReserve balance sheet bloat, unprofitable tech cos, debt levels, etc: ImageImage
Finally got myself a Twitter account in early 2021, and started occasionally posting a little on #inflation, rising #yields, #bondmarket hiccups, and the coming explosion in #interestrates where #Centralbanks are not to be trusted when they speak.

Archive of relevant tweets:
Feb 25th, 2021:

"#Eurodollar & #Euribor long-dated ATM puts until 2022-23."

I've rolled over expirations, but the Dec 2023 Eurodollar put is up almost 7000% since then.

With 1000% realized, I'm up 2900% as of today, June 2024 expiry.
March 13th, 2021:

"Like *absolutely everyone else*, I'm 100% certain it will stop exactly at 2% - no risk at all of it going above."

Were you still worshipping at the altar of #JPow?

I've seen the writing on the wall since we responded to 08 with the historical anomaly of artificially suppressed low-interest rates, globally.

Stein's Law: "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop."

Did I sit on the sidelines for a decade? No.

Scroll on.
Before anyone accuses me, I did not skip out on the biggest bull market in history.

I just acknowledged it for what it was all along, a bubble caused by unrealistically low-interest rates.

Meanwhile, I told my friends about #uranium and pre-meme #gme back in April, 2020: Image
Now, I'm the guy that will be wrong 80% of the time.

But I'm also the guy that will make 10x, 100x, 1000x my money back when I'm right.

In other words, I suffer no delusions that I will be correct about every prediction I make. Hell, most of the time, they are "what ifs". Image
The future has an infinite amount of possible outcomes, so to believe you can somehow predict it consistently is a major mistake.

Thus, I don't trade with the intention of being right, but to be lucky.

Like Seneca said,
“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”
If you like the "what if", the mean reversion, the psychology of crowds, the folly of experts, the wild gambles, and constantly bleeding funds chasing that wild dragon...

Well, I could be wrong (probably am), but you might want to hit follow if so.

Thanks for reading! 🫳🎤
Started warning about the multi-decade bull market in #bonds entering truly dodgy territory 6 years ago, AND only missed the top by a mere 15 days when I moved against it. 😎👍

I don't even charge a fee. I'll make my money in the markets instead. 😉

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More from @GttgTrades

Sep 28
USA Timeline
'46-'70: Trust us, we're stable. No corruption here. We can be the trusted currency.
'71: Aaactually...
'72-'20: Hah, we can just erode EVERY OTHER NATION'S buying power, no consequences for us! PRIIIIIIIINT!
'21: Buy our debt or we all suff-.. oh, you already are.😱
Part of the underlying mentality of Bretton-Woods in 1946, when the #USD became the world's reserve #currency, was an acknowledgment of the lessons learned during the inter-war years.
One of the key areas weighted was the concept of economic security to ensure post-war peace.
A quote by Cordell Hull (U.S. Secretary of State, '33-'44) reflects his belief that the fundamental causes of the two world wars lay in economic discrimination and trade warfare:

Unhampered trade dovetailed with peace; high tariffs, trade barriers, and unfair economic...
Read 6 tweets
Sep 27
In a complex financial world where everybody needs to have a Masters/PhD in math, economics, engineering, physics (or similar) to be taken seriously - what are the odds that market cycles, a result of the human psyche (@HowardMarksBook), become quantified into risky simplicity?
Yes, of course, fundamentals matter. Of course, statistics matter.

But the main reason we have cycles, the main reason we have excess fear and excess greed isn't because of the numbers - it's because of the psychological reaction humans have to the numbers.

That matters.
We have broken down everything in the markets to fit into nifty little spreadsheets and mathematical formulas, claiming the system is more robust, can take more leverage, and that there's nothing to fear because we'll see it coming in our gaussian distribution sims.

Read 4 tweets

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