What factors are 𝘯𝘰𝘵 included in most crop models?
⚠️Among many other things
-declines in pollinating insects
-nutrient reductions in staple crops
-changes in air quality
-land degradation and salinisation
-even *increasing extreme weather*
"What does all of this mean to policy makers? We must be very cautious in interpreting projections of food production or food security because they rely on models that omit many important biophysical changes & include other variables with profound, irreducible uncertainties"
4/4
🧵Extreme weather is already dramatically impacting major growing regions around the world-
Given the above noted model limitations, it is incumbent upon world leaders to implement deep emission cuts to protect world food supplies
"People were fleeing to higher, cooler ground. Subway stations were blacked out...buildings were darkened... important arteries for shipping & transportation became unnavigable...Chickens died or struggled to lay eggs"
'According to data from NASA ... the North China Plain’s groundwater reserves are even more overdrawn than those of the Ogallala Aquifer under the Great Plains of the United States, one of the world’s most imperiled critical agricultural water sources' 3/4 foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-g…
"I think what it reinforces is that, even though a lot of us are sort of sitting in sort of Western countries, where we might think we're a bit more insulated from some of these threats, actually we are not necessarily"
I tweet a great deal about climate change impacts on agriculture because it is clear that reducing emissions is the single most important need to ensure food system resilience, but ...
'Parts of the European Union could face 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀 of warmer and drier conditions as Europe weathers a major drought that has fueled forest fires, dried up rivers and devastated crops'
The climate crisis is *already* impacting food supplies in wealthy countries- & look at what is being ignored in Somalia:
'Crops are failing while millions of livestock die, as the drought cripples the main source of income for 80% of the population...' time.com/6205717/somali…
'Corn isn’t the only US crop suffering under hot and dry conditions in the Great Plains. Sorghum and millet, which are grown in areas currently hit by drought, look set to be hurt as well.'
'The drought pressing Texas’ agriculture industry ...is pushing farmers and ranchers to the brink. The state’s 247,000 farms & ranches covering 127 million acres haven’t had a whole year of rain since 2017'