Salafi-jihadi groups linked to #alQaeda and the #IslamicState have exploited cyclical violence and anti-government grievances to root themselves in local communities and steadily expand in the Sahel over the past decade. 2/5
The fallout from the Burkina Faso coup, like the 2020 and 2021 coups in Mali, will likely further reduce counterterrorism pressure and worsen the conditions that lead to Salafi-jihadi expansion. 3/5
Instability in #BurkinaFaso may aid ongoing #JNIM campaigns to consolidate its control of peripheral areas in Burkina Faso. 4/5
ISGS is strengthening and could benefit from instability that causes decreased counterterrorism coordination in the tri-border region. 5/5
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NEW | Increasing domestic critiques of #Russia’s “partial mobilization” are likely driving Putin to scapegoat the Russian Ministry of Defense and specifically Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
The #Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in #Kharkiv Oblast has not yet culminated and is actively pushing into #Luhansk Oblast.
#Ukrainian troops likely consolidated positions and regrouped in northern #Kherson Oblast after making major gains over in the last 48 hours.
#Ukrainian forces continued to make gains in eastern #Kharkiv Oblast west of #Svatove on October 4, pushing past the Oskil River and increasingly threatening #Russian positions in #Luhansk Oblast. 2/4
#Ukrainian forces continued to make substantial gains in northern #Kherson Oblast on October 4, beginning to collapse the sparsely-manned Russian lines in that area. 3/4
Senior #Iranian political and security officials overwhelmingly echoed Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei’s hard line on the protests. 2/4
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (#IRGC) continued attacking anti-regime Kurdish militant positions in Iraqi Kurdistan for the ninth consecutive day. 3/4
Anti-regime protests decreased in number across Iran but were significantly more violent in #Tehran. Regime security forces brutally suppressed anti-regime protests at the #SharifUniversity of Technology in Tehran on October 2. 2/7
Social media rumors claimed that state security services are facing significant bandwidth constraints in West Azerbaijan and Kurdistan provinces. 3/7
#Iranian security forces brutally cracked down on anti-regime protests at #SharifUniversity in #Tehran on October 2. Here's what you can expect from CTP's #IranProtests update later today: 1/5
Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei remains absent and did not make a public appearance or statement on October 2. 2/5
#Sharif University students reported that #Iranian security forces barricaded, shot, and arrested student protestors in #Tehran on October 2. 3/5