NEW #Africa File | #BurkinaFaso’s latest coup on Sep. 30 indicates that the governance and security crisis in West Africa’s #Sahel region continues to deepen. @liam_karr @brian_cartr @EmilyCEstelle… 1/5 Image
Salafi-jihadi groups linked to #alQaeda and the #IslamicState have exploited cyclical violence and anti-government grievances to root themselves in local communities and steadily expand in the Sahel over the past decade. 2/5 Image
The fallout from the Burkina Faso coup, like the 2020 and 2021 coups in Mali, will likely further reduce counterterrorism pressure and worsen the conditions that lead to Salafi-jihadi expansion. 3/5
Instability in #BurkinaFaso may aid ongoing #JNIM campaigns to consolidate its control of peripheral areas in Burkina Faso. 4/5 ImageImage
ISGS is strengthening and could benefit from instability that causes decreased counterterrorism coordination in the tri-border region. 5/5 Image

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More from @criticalthreats

Oct 6
NEW | Increasing domestic critiques of #Russia’s “partial mobilization” are likely driving Putin to scapegoat the Russian Ministry of Defense and specifically Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar:…
The #Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in #Kharkiv Oblast has not yet culminated and is actively pushing into #Luhansk Oblast.
#Ukrainian troops likely consolidated positions and regrouped in northern #Kherson Oblast after making major gains over in the last 48 hours.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 5
Anti-regime protests in #Iran may have occurred in at least four cities in four provinces—a significant decrease from the previous day’s protest activity. Read the latest update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar.… 1/4
Anti-regime outlet Iran International reported that #Iran is using orbit jamming to block the network’s satellite signal into Iran. 2/4
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (#IRGC) conducted an artillery strike on Sidekan in Iraqi Kurdistan for the tenth consecutive day. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Oct 5
#Ukrainian forces continued to make significant gains in #Kherson Oblast while simultaneously continuing advances in #Kharkiv and #Luhansk Oblast. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar.… 1/4
#Ukrainian forces continued to make gains in eastern #Kharkiv Oblast west of #Svatove on October 4, pushing past the Oskil River and increasingly threatening #Russian positions in #Luhansk Oblast. 2/4
#Ukrainian forces continued to make substantial gains in northern #Kherson Oblast on October 4, beginning to collapse the sparsely-manned Russian lines in that area. 3/4
Read 6 tweets
Oct 4
Anti-regime protests in #Iran occurred in at least 17 cities in 14 provinces on October 4, primarily around universities and high schools. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar.… 1/4
Senior #Iranian political and security officials overwhelmingly echoed Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei’s hard line on the protests. 2/4
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (#IRGC) continued attacking anti-regime Kurdish militant positions in Iraqi Kurdistan for the ninth consecutive day. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Oct 2
The continued public absence of #Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei may be hindering regime officials’ efforts to develop a coherent response to the ongoing, anti-regime protests. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar.… 1/7
Anti-regime protests decreased in number across Iran but were significantly more violent in #Tehran. Regime security forces brutally suppressed anti-regime protests at the #SharifUniversity of Technology in Tehran on October 2. 2/7
Social media rumors claimed that state security services are facing significant bandwidth constraints in West Azerbaijan and Kurdistan provinces. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Oct 2
#Iranian security forces brutally cracked down on anti-regime protests at #SharifUniversity in #Tehran on October 2. Here's what you can expect from CTP's #IranProtests update later today: 1/5
Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei remains absent and did not make a public appearance or statement on October 2. 2/5
#Sharif University students reported that #Iranian security forces barricaded, shot, and arrested student protestors in #Tehran on October 2. 3/5
Read 5 tweets

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