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Oct 10 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Anti-regime #protests occurred in at least 18 cities in 15 different provinces in #Iran on October 9. 1/4 #مهسا_امینی

criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…
Iranian leadership may have ordered the IRGC Ground Forces to support the protest crackdown directly. The IRGC Ground Forces would likely use extreme force. Its deployment would indicate that the regime is alarmed by the protests and considers them a serious security threat. 2/4
Iran has built a multilayered security apparatus of different military and paramilitary institutions to impose social control. The IRGC Ground Forces is the regime’s last line of defense against internal unrest and the most prominent security layer after the LEC and Basij. 3/4
You can read more about Iran's internal security apparatus and the regime’s counter-protest strategy in this @criticalthreats report by @NicholasACarl. 4/4

criticalthreats.org/analysis/whate…

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More from @criticalthreats

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Oct 11
#IranProtests highlight how the regime has prepared itself to brutally crack down on its people. These protests also highlight the cracks in the regime’s security apparatus. A thread: 1/7 #مهسا_امینی #سنندج
The regime has optimized its internal security apparatus to preempt and violently suppress protests. The regime uses a three-pronged counter-protest strategy to achieve this effect. 2/7 Image
The regime relies most heavily on force to suppress protests. It uses a cohesive and ideological network of military and paramilitary units to do so. This approach is currently on display in the regime’s brutal crackdown in #Sanandaj. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Oct 11
NEW | #Russian forces conducted massive, coordinated missile strikes on over 20 #Ukrainian cities. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar:

criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Russian forces continued to conduct ground assaults in #Donetsk Oblast on October 9 and 10. Image
#Ukrainian military officials noted that Russian forces have already committed mobilized men to #Kharkiv Oblast who have since told the Ukrainian forces that they did not receive any training prior to their deployment around September 15. Image
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Oct 11
#Iranian security forces are brutally suppressing protestors in #Sanandaj, #Kurdistan Province. Here's what else you need to know today from CTP and @TheStudyofWar's Iran Crisis Update:

criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…

#سنندج #مهسا_امینی Image
Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 16 cities in 11 different provinces on October 10. Iranian security forces are using significantly violent and lethal means to suppress protests in #Sanandaj.
Protests in the Iranian heartland may be approaching the threshold identified in US military doctrine for “latent and incipient” insurgency. CTP has not yet observed clear indicators that the protest movement has crossed the threshold and isn't prepared to forecast that it will.
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Oct 10
NEW | The attack on the #Kerch Strait Bridge is generating direct criticism of #Russian President Vladimir Putin and the #Kremlin from the Russian pro-war nationalist community. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Ukrainian forces continued to advance east of the #Oskil River in the direction of #Luhansk Oblast and have entered #Stel’makhivka. Russian forces launched unsuccessful assaults on #Burdaka on the #Kharkiv Oblast-Russian border, and #Terny northeast of #Lyman. Image
#Russian sources reported that Russian forces attempted to attack in the direction of #Ternovi Pody. #Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces continued to target newly liberated settlements in northern #Kherson Oblast with artillery, MLRS, and aviation. Image
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Oct 9
A large-scale explosion seriously damaged the #Kerch Strait Bridge that links occupied #Crimea with #Russia. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… 1/4
#Russian sources claimed that #Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in #Kharkiv and #Luhansk Oblasts. 2/4
Russian forces continued establishing defensive positions in northern #Kherson Oblast. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Oct 6
NEW #Africa File | #BurkinaFaso’s latest coup on Sep. 30 indicates that the governance and security crisis in West Africa’s #Sahel region continues to deepen. @liam_karr @brian_cartr @EmilyCEstelle criticalthreats.org/briefs/africa-… 1/5 Image
Salafi-jihadi groups linked to #alQaeda and the #IslamicState have exploited cyclical violence and anti-government grievances to root themselves in local communities and steadily expand in the Sahel over the past decade. 2/5 Image
The fallout from the Burkina Faso coup, like the 2020 and 2021 coups in Mali, will likely further reduce counterterrorism pressure and worsen the conditions that lead to Salafi-jihadi expansion. 3/5
Read 5 tweets

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