The shrinking of the middle class is accompanied by an increase in the share of adults in the upper-income tier from 14% in 1971 to 21% in 2021. At the same time, there was an increase in the share who are in the lower-income tier, from 25% to 29%. realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i…
Most importantly, and what is often not included in the analysis, is the standard of living gets “paid for” on an “after-tax” basis. When we include taxation, it becomes clear that roughly 80% of America is failing to support the “middle-class” lifestyle. realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i…
“When broken down by generation, younger adults, or Gen Zers, are more likely to experience ‘#recession fatigue’ than millennials, Gen Xers, and baby boomers. " realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i…
Between 1959 and 1990, individuals could sustain their inflation-adjusted standard of living with only #incomes and #savings. Since 2008, it requires an increasing level of debt to “fill the gap” to afford and the cost of the current living standard. realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i…
The share of annual incomes between the bottom 80% and the top 5% is evidence of that wealth transfer from the middle class. realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i…
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Moving forward, YoY comparisons become more challenging at 0.9%, 0.7%, 0.6%, 0.6%, 0.8%, and 1.2% through March 2023. In August, #inflation will drop to 7.9% from 9% in June. Assuming an avg. 0.2% MoM increase, CPI hits the Fed’s 2% target in June 2023. realinvestmentadvice.com/market-rally-s…
Despite Friday's rout, the #market did finish the week in positive territory. The deeply oversold indicators turned up and are close to triggering “buy signals.” The market is trading 2-standard deviations below the 50- WEEK moving average. realinvestmentadvice.com/market-rally-s…
At 2-standard deviations above the 50-dma, and the 200-dma acting as resistance, the #market pullback, as discussed last week, was expected. Support levels reside just below between 4000 and 4160. realinvestmentadvice.com/fomc-minutes-e…
Great note from BofA this weekend.
“Applying a 20th century PE of 15x gets you to an S&P500 index of 3300, applying a 21st century PE of 20x gets you to an S&P500 of 4400; there’s your range."
Problem: The drivers of the 21st century range are reversing. realinvestmentadvice.com/fomc-minutes-e…
Furthermore, the Government ran no deficit, and household debt to net worth was about 60%. So, while #inflation increased and interest #rates rose, the average household could sustain their living standard. realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an…
In Dec 2018, we wrote why Jeff Gundlach was likely incorrect about 6% yields.
“Rates are at levels that historically led to some sort of event either economic, financial, or both, When that occurs, rates will go to 1.5% and closer to Zero.“
We got to 0.5% realinvestmentadvice.com/surge-in-bond-…
The surge in 2-year #bond#yields is unprecedented. Historically, such a surge in short-term yields coincides with either #recessions or #market events. With yields now 4-std deviations above its 52-week moving average, such has denoted peaks previously. realinvestmentadvice.com/surge-in-bond-…