Lance Roberts Profile picture
Nov 8 6 tweets 5 min read
For an #economy to flourish, and create #prosperity for the majority of participants, there must be a strong and vibrant #middleclass. Today's #blog digs into the disappearance of the economic engine.
realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i…
The shrinking of the middle class is accompanied by an increase in the share of adults in the upper-income tier from 14% in 1971 to 21% in 2021. At the same time, there was an increase in the share who are in the lower-income tier, from 25% to 29%.
realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i… Image
Most importantly, and what is often not included in the analysis, is the standard of living gets “paid for” on an “after-tax” basis. When we include taxation, it becomes clear that roughly 80% of America is failing to support the “middle-class” lifestyle.
realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i… Image
“When broken down by generation, younger adults, or Gen Zers, are more likely to experience ‘#recession fatigue’ than millennials, Gen Xers, and baby boomers. "
realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i… ImageImage
Between 1959 and 1990, individuals could sustain their inflation-adjusted standard of living with only #incomes and #savings. Since 2008, it requires an increasing level of debt to “fill the gap” to afford and the cost of the current living standard.
realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i… ImageImage
The share of annual incomes between the bottom 80% and the top 5% is evidence of that wealth transfer from the middle class.
realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i… Image

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More from @LanceRoberts

Oct 11
Today's #blogpost discusses #Grantham's recent comments on the #SuperBubble's final act. Is that the case, or is this time different?
realinvestmentadvice.com/superbubbles-t…
We find ourselves at the crossroads where #markets and #fundamental realities meet. From this point, the outlook for equities over the next 9-12 months is more #bearish than #bullish.
realinvestmentadvice.com/superbubbles-t… Image
Notably, the “difference this time” is the #Fed is aggressively tightening #monetary #policy to slow economic growth and reduce demand-driven inflation. The consequence is negative concerning both #economic and #earnings growth.
realinvestmentadvice.com/superbubbles-t… Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 8
The #BullBearReport is out.
The #market started with a strong #rally, then #stumbled into week's end. With #oversold conditions still intact and CPI next week, the #bulls have a shot at a rally if #inflation shows some signs of cooling.
realinvestmentadvice.com/market-rally-s…
Moving forward, YoY comparisons become more challenging at 0.9%, 0.7%, 0.6%, 0.6%, 0.8%, and 1.2% through March 2023. In August, #inflation will drop to 7.9% from 9% in June. Assuming an avg. 0.2% MoM increase, CPI hits the Fed’s 2% target in June 2023.
realinvestmentadvice.com/market-rally-s… Image
Despite Friday's rout, the #market did finish the week in positive territory. The deeply oversold indicators turned up and are close to triggering “buy signals.” The market is trading 2-standard deviations below the 50- WEEK moving average.
realinvestmentadvice.com/market-rally-s… Image
Read 6 tweets
Aug 20
The #BullBearReport is out.
The #rally runs into resistance and backtracks as #overbought conditions slow the #bulls. Is the run over, or just resting? We review the #FOMC minutes, what it means for #investors, the #technical backdrop and #allocations.
realinvestmentadvice.com/fomc-minutes-e…
At 2-standard deviations above the 50-dma, and the 200-dma acting as resistance, the #market pullback, as discussed last week, was expected. Support levels reside just below between 4000 and 4160.
realinvestmentadvice.com/fomc-minutes-e…
Great note from BofA this weekend.
“Applying a 20th century PE of 15x gets you to an S&P500 index of 3300, applying a 21st century PE of 20x gets you to an S&P500 of 4400; there’s your range."
Problem: The drivers of the 21st century range are reversing.
realinvestmentadvice.com/fomc-minutes-e…
Read 5 tweets
Aug 19
Today's #MacroView is out. Why today isn't 1982 and Jerome Powell isn't Paul Volker.
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an…
The road to 1982 didn’t start in 1980. The buildup of #inflation started long before the #ArabOil Embargo. Economic growth, wages, and savings rates catalyzed “demand push” inflation.
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an… Image
Furthermore, the Government ran no deficit, and household debt to net worth was about 60%. So, while #inflation increased and interest #rates rose, the average household could sustain their living standard.
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an… Image
Read 5 tweets
Jun 11
The #RealInvestmentReport is out!
The #rally that started 3-weeks ago ended abruptly as concerns of #inflation, the #Fed and rising #recession risk spooked #investors. With the Fed set to hike #rates next week, we increased hedges and cash last week.
realinvestmentadvice.com/rally-fails-as…
After struggling at the 38.2% resistance level, #inflation, #recession risks, and the #Fed spooked #investors last week. #Market now retesting previous lows. Now back to short-term oversold, looking for a small bounce next week to add to #short #hedges.
realinvestmentadvice.com/rally-fails-as… Image
With the #Fed tightening their #balance sheet and hiking #rates, the 10-year yield is starting to top. Much like we saw in 2018, when the Fed breaks something, yields will fall quickly on the long-end (#yieldcurve inversion and #recession.)
realinvestmentadvice.com/rally-fails-as… Image
Read 7 tweets
Mar 25
A significant #bond #buying opportunity is approaching.
As bond yields surge, history and #techncial analysis suggest that we should look at bonds for both #capital appreciation and a #risk hedge.
realinvestmentadvice.com/surge-in-bond-…
In Dec 2018, we wrote why Jeff Gundlach was likely incorrect about 6% yields.
“Rates are at levels that historically led to some sort of event either economic, financial, or both, When that occurs, rates will go to 1.5% and closer to Zero.“
We got to 0.5%
realinvestmentadvice.com/surge-in-bond-…
The surge in 2-year #bond #yields is unprecedented. Historically, such a surge in short-term yields coincides with either #recessions or #market events. With yields now 4-std deviations above its 52-week moving average, such has denoted peaks previously.
realinvestmentadvice.com/surge-in-bond-…
Read 6 tweets

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