Thread by @IHME_UW

What's going on with #China and #COVID-19?

Model 📈 covid19.healthdata.org
Blog 🗨️ bit.ly/IHME-Episodes
Briefings 📊 healthdata.org/covid/updates

Here's the breakdown: a thread 🧵

What we're expecting in #China:
- Major #omicron epidemic in coming months
- According to our reference scenario, we expect 323,000 total deaths by 4/1/23
- Infections to peak around 4/1, but we expect number of susceptible individuals to sustain transmission months after April

What about #vaccines?

Although there is a high #vaccination rate, there's comparatively low effectiveness of the vaccines used in #China against Omicron & the large gap since vaccination for many individuals means that 80% of the population is susceptible to #Omicron infection.

What project with the lift of zero-COVID policy:

MAJOR DEATH toll among 80+ population.

Why?
1. Low vaccination rates in #China
2. Less effective vaccines than other countries
3. No widespread availability of #antivirals

Our director, Dr. Christopher Murray explains👇

China + Omicron rumors: Fact vs. Fiction:

🔴Fiction: Omicron is mild
🟢FACT: Omicron is NOT mild

🔴Fiction: Zero-COVID strategy will not have a high death toll.
🟢FACT: The experience in #HongKong, where 10,000 died in the first months of Omicron wave, would suggest otherwise

80% of #China is susceptible. The death toll could arguably reach well over 1 MILLION during 2023.

healthdata.org/sites/default/…

Is there anything to be done to minimize the death toll?
- Increase vaccination rates among the elderly population
- Increase the availability of antivirals
- Including the use of effective vaccines

Until now, China has avoided major outbreaks, leaving the population largely susceptible to new infections. Higher rates of infection increase probability of new variants developing.

Here's the projected order of operations we foresee in China:

Relaxed zero-COVID strategy👉 massive wave of infection 👉 hospitals overwhelmed 👉 considerable death toll

So what could be done? Is there ANY strategy to reduce deaths?

Effective interventions that reduce the death toll are available but no major effort has been made to use them in China:
- switching to effective mRNA vaccines
- providing #Paxlovid to support vulnerable population

According to our models, the epidemic takes off in mid-January.

Local governments will have to take measures to support hospitals as the affected individuals will be extraordinary, reimplement social distancing and mask mandates, and gathering restrictions to slow transmission.

The Chinese government faces hard choices in the coming months balancing economic/schooling outcomes against the prospect of substantial
death, particularly in the 80+ population.

Read more ⤵️

📈covid19.healthdata.org
🗨️ bit.ly/IHME-Episodes
📊 healthdata.org/covid/updates

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