Thread by @thomasdggeddes

How is the #UkraineRussiaWar affecting the #EU's prospects? Its economy? Its place in the world?

▫️ Zhang Jian (张健): "It will further weaken the 🇪🇺's strength and int. influence and accelerate its marginalisation in the global geopolitical landscape."

sinification.substack.com/p/the-future-o…

🔹The author: Zhang Jian (张健) is the director of the Institute of European Studies at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) – an influential think tank linked to China’s Ministry of State Security.

cicir.ac.cn/NEW/expert.htm…

🔹Some context: Zhang’s assessment is more pessimistic than some in China, but several of his arguments are in line with those made by other Chinese analysts: e.g. the negative impact that the #war has had on the EU’s quest for #StrategicAutonomy. This is bad news for #China.

🔹Summary of Zhang's views:

1⃣ On the #EU's economy:

▫️ Prospects are bleak, de-industrialisation is set to continue and protectionist policies are expected to increase.

▫️ #Germany’s economic woes and their potential spill-over effect on the #eurozone are particularly worrying.

▫️ #Debt levels within the EU are rising and are becoming increasingly unsustainable.

2⃣ On the EU’s #StrategicAutonomy:

▫️ Dependence on the #UnitedStates (militarily, economically and with regards to energy) has increased and will probably continue to increase for the foreseeable future.

▫️ “Strategic autonomy” is no longer a buzzword in #Brussels.

▫️ The emergence of a third pole within the #EuropeanUnion consisting of pro-#USA countries from eastern and northern Europe will continue to hamper the EU’s quest for strategic autonomy.

3⃣ On #EU integration:

▫️ Economic tensions between northern and southern European countries combined with political tensions between eastern and western European countries are set to increase.

▫️ Such rifts, economic difficulties, rising #populism and a weakened Franco-German tandem are weakening cohesion among member states and hindering further integration.

▫️ With a weaker economy, #Germany is expected to become more focused on its own national interests and less willing to support #France in its efforts to reform the EU.

4⃣ On the #EU internationally:

▫️ The EU’s image and influence are declining.

▫️ The EU is losing its balancing role in international affairs and risks becoming a mere follower of #US policies.

▫️ Geopolitically, the #EU and its member states are set to remain focused on their neighbourhood and their ability to project power globally will continue to decline. This also applies to the #IndoPacific which is increasingly becoming a mere “bargaining chip” with the US.

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