Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Mar 27 4 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1. If #Ukraine can figure out a way to put a mechanized force across the #Dnipro at #Kherson, #NATO supplied armor force that has arrived could be used for a lightning strike on #Mariupol from #Vuhledar while a second force moves from #Kherson to cut Russian escape at #Armiansk.
2. With only the #Crimean bridges at #Chongar and #Henichesk available to withdraw the dilemma created by possible loss of #Mariupol could start a rout that will see #Russians abandoning more equipment to be able to escape into Crimea or in the east towards #Donetsk or #Rostov.
3. #Zalenskyy's visit to #Zaporizhia may suggest this is the plan. But guessing the #Ukrainian moves has proven a fool's errand. Just making the #Kremlin contemplate the capture of 50,000 Russian soldiers might be enough to get #Putin to withdraw especially
4. after his chef told him he can't hold out for long at #Bahkmut.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Tim Hogan 浩勤

Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TimInHonolulu

Mar 28
1. @POTUS @JoeBiden can order under his emergency national security powers that all production and stocks of 5.56 and 7.62 ammo in stock and as that is produced is US govt property to prepare for war with Russia and China. Don't tip it and make the first that the industry
2. learns of it when it is already in effect. Any NFA licensee that violates the order will lose their license and face additional sanctions including criminal charges. That will make any AR-15 purchased likely incapable of being fired without the help of current owner.
3. Then work on EO that cuts off the ability of non-NFA sellers to transfer ammo. Make any cache larger than 1,000 rounds a military cache and under the POTUS authority to command the militia subject to seizure with just compensation to the former owner.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 27
1. IMO #Tяump has headed an adjunct mob family established by his father. #45's contribution was to align his crime family with the Russian mob in the late 1970s. In some respects he and Roy Cohn may have provided a peace bridge between these two ethnic crime syndicates,
2. a bridge evidenced by affiliations with La Cosa Nostra-connected people like Manafort & DeSantis. Other #45 insiders with evident family mob connections include Cipollone and McGahan. What may be happening in a NYC grand jury is putting final
3. touches on the mother-of-all-indictments that will tie the Tяump family to both the Italian and Russian mobs. The crimes include drug and human trafficking, union corruption, insurance and bank fraud plus money laundering, predicates in both federal and NY state RICO acts.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 24
1. The only way to stop the #Iranians from threatening our force in #Syria is to slam the door at #Baghuz. But that's the border and taking a border crossing is a big deal. We are with the #SDF on the other side of the Euphrates but the SDF has to deal with the
2. Russians because Tяump betrayed them by surrendering to #Erdogan. @POTUS kept status quo with Turkey - still murdering #SDF. #Israel approaches political disintegration so #Putin & #Iran think it's good time use #Kremlin's caucus of @HouseGOP to help them take all of #Syria.
3. #ISIS is still very active on the west side of the #Euphrates next to the Iranians. We should get them all out but past and present policies have a price and ours is that we have to do this with US and/or other partner forces because of @SecBlinken's misguided #Turkey policy.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 24
1. Docket watching. Stored Comms Act appeal docket posts May oral argument. Stay was dissolved so it's likely soon moot. This was on a rocket for the first week then Govt supplemented record, then paused ten days and they flushed it. Could Govt have appealed to SCOTUS & won?
2. What was in that supplemental record? Could we have the orange menace working with the Kremlin to create violence and they picked it up in a FISA intercept? 10 days at SCOTUS is a blink of an eye. If I'm right, it had to be something terrible supplementing the record.
3. I also think the nuclear threats from Moscow are likely being coordinated with the GQP in Congress and their dear leader. Perhaps even the most staunch right-wing SCOTUS justices don't want to be nuked.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 23
1. What if Alvin Bragg charges #45 for rapes he and Epstein committed related to minors? The crimes were alleged in the 1990s when the statute of limitations for sexual assault on a minor was five years. Now NY state has no statute of limitations.
2. The case that held that retroactive changes in the statute of limitations violated the Constitution's ex post facto clause was Stogner v. California, decided in 2003 by a sharply decided SCOTUS. Only one justice who heard that case is still on the court.
3. And because we now have a court that has ended stare decisis, Bragg would be ethically justified in testing the waters by charging him under the new statute of limitations. Put the record of the orange menace's multiple rapes of teens in the record for
Read 4 tweets
Mar 23
1. I try to harmonize facts to make sense of what seems odd. Corcoran had to protect the privilege. It's not his call. Typically the lawyer is taken to the district judge and if the crime-fraud exception applies the attorney is ordered to testify. But if they appeal then it goes
2. to the court of appeals. What we just witnessed is an appeal that got flushed in record time that appears to have not even addressed the merits of the crime-fraud exception claim. But this case is apparently only focused on physical documentary evidence. I looked at court of
3. appeals dockets and there are several in recent months that are related to grand juries. I think it's possible that the courts have already ruled once on the application of the crime-fraud exception to the facts of this case and Corcoran still would not turn over the documents
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(