•Germany is in recession
• #USA#recession is coming
•Spinning top on Nasdaq
• #NDX negative divergences with classic indis
•Leading stocks are overextended
•Breadth Negative divergences
•4300 is strong resistance
•Daily, weekly and monthly bullish candlestick with high volume
•Big bullish action on Friday, with Breadth Thrust
• $SPX broke important levels on high volume
•Bullish momentum
•Dealers increased their long positions
•Positive #Gamma
•Momentum is bullish, but indices are near resistance
•A likely visit to 4220 in the next two weeks is expected
•Hard to see a solid break above 4300 this week
•Expecting good performance from the #smallcaps this week
•When everything is so bearish or so bullish, stop and think differently
Repeating our previous comments:
•We still think #SPX will try to go for 4300, but a pullback is possible in the next 2 weeks to retest the breakout zone
•Unresolved Debt ceiling
•Friday's negative day and bearish candlesticks
• Several neg. divergences
•Leading stocks reversed
• #VVIX bullish engulfing candle and #VIX1D daily higher highs higher lows points to more vol ahead
•GDP maybe ↓
$SPX
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's take
• Indices up week on high volume
•Buy the dip: Bullish action
•Volatility indicators are subdued
• $NDX, $FAANG, $SMH in good health
• $SPX, $NDX higher highs and higher lows
•Market broke out above resistance
•Breadth thrust last Wednesday #SPX
NEXT WEEK
Our take
•Debt ceiling will be solved
• #PCE will come lower
• #GDP will be OK
•Breakout zone is likely to be retested this week
•Price is firmly in positive Gamma
•We remain cautious due to still internal market weakness
•Monthly close on lighter volume
•Negative divergences from classic indicators
•Tough talk from FEDs
•Inflation is sticky, rates ↑
• #Recession is here
• #GDP ↓
•Leading indicators ↓
• #AAPL earnings ↓
•Big #Gamma at 4000
•#SPX printed back-to-back Marubozu candlesticks
•Green week with higher volume
•Green month with candlestick body above the previous one
•Return to positive #Gamma regime
•Buy the dip: Bullish price action
•Breadth improvement
• +Open on Sunday, and eventually on Monday; possible mid-session/afternoon pullback, close near flat
•Market to move ↑ or slightly ↓ ahead of FOMC
-•#Semis will improve pushing↑
• #SPX to hit 4195
• #FOMC: shake out/not kill current ↑trend
•Upward momentum is lost
•Negative divergences and sell signals from classic indicators
•Big weekly bullish enfulfing candle on $VVIX
•Weekly bearish haramis on major indices
•Inflation is sticky, higher rates coming
• #Recession is here
•Major indices printed weekly higher lows and higher highs
• $VIX continues in strong downtrend
• Leading stocks holding support
•Dealers are holding net long positions
•Positive Gamma regime
•Buy the dip: Bullish price action
•The market will stay in the current range (4100/4160) through Tuesday
•Nothing has broken yet, we remain cautiously bullish, but moving up our flip levels (↑↓)
•Earnings will help float the market, but could be mixed
•Market is in decreasing weekly volume
•High yields
•Looming #Recession
•Geopolitical and geo-economic tensions are on the rise
•Valuations are high
• #Inflation is sticky
•Higher rates for longer
•Small-caps are lagging behind
•Bullish daily, weekly and monthly candles
•Momentum is up
•Tech is leading
•Sucessful retest of breakout zones
• #NDX made new higher low and higher high
• #SPX made new higher low
The Bear's take:
•Market is up in decreasing weekly volume
•Market is overbought
•High yields
•Looming #Recession
•Geopolitical and geo-economic tensions are on the rise
• #Inflation is sticky
•Higher rates for longer
•Small-caps are lagging behind
•Bullish daily, weekly and monthly candles
•Momentum is up
•Tech is leading
•Sucessful retest of breakout zones
• #NDX made new higher low and higher high
• #SPX made new higher low
According to the teachings of Sheldon Natemberg, 30 years Market Maker, Cboe Educator and author of the options Bible "Option Volatility & Pricing: Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques"