Thread by @rcallimachi

1. Today, American-backed forces in Syria declared that they had taken back the city of Raqqa from the Islamic State
nytimes.com/2017/10/17/wor…

2. The US stopped short, saying 90% of Raqqa is free. Join me on @maddow after 918 pm to discuss what this means (and what it doesn't mean)

3. At its height in 2015, ISIS controlled a territory the size of the United Kingdom in Iraq, Syria, Libya and beyond.

4. In an email, US-backed Coalition fighting ISIS told me that of the 104,000 square kms the group held in Iraq/Syria, 93,790 is liberated

5. That's one heckuva lot, but it also means ISIS still holds some 10,000 sq kms (almost 4000 sq miles) including Iraqi town of al-Qaim

6. And those holdings are only in Iraq and Syria. Don't forget group has affiliates in Libya, Yemen, Afghanistan, Philippines, West Africa

7. When people talk about the end of ISIS, I think of Mark Twain's quote: "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."

8. Here's the # I want you to ponder: When US troops pulled out of Iraq in 2011, officials estimated that ISIS' precursors had 700 fighters

9. The group that became ISIS was considered so PG-13 that the bounty on the head of its leader was dropped from $5 million to $100,000

10. But that seemingly defanged group is the one that 3 yrs later came roaring back, grabbing Mosul, Raqqa etc and declaring a caliphate

11. Wanna take a guess how many ISIS fighters are still on the battlefield after the loss of all this land? Join me on @maddow to find out

12. According to the Coalition, as of 4 days ago, ISIS still had 6,000 to 10,000 fighters just in Iraq & Syria. That's 8 to 14x 2011 number

13. And that number doesn't include the fighters elsewhere in the world including in Libya, Yemen, Afghanistan, Turkey etc

14. I asked @thomasjoscelyn how he read the fall of Raqqa. His comments:

15. I also reached out to @dbyman at Georgetown. He quoted Louis Pasteur who in 1857 said that "Chance favors the prepared mind."

16. @dbyman used this quote to describe ISIS: They may be losing their territory but they are well-prepared to take advantage of the chaos

17. Speaking of chaos, in recent days pro-ISIS channels posted a video from a jihadist group, inviting the "brothers" to join them in Congo

18. Our piece on the fall of Raqqa by @nytmargaret @EricSchmittNYT and I with comments by @azelin @dbyman & others