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*cracks knuckles.*
Ok, let’s go through the fallacy of the GOP roll call support for Trump. 1/
Ok, let’s go through the fallacy of the GOP roll call support for Trump. 1/
First, roll calls are a subset of the agenda. Which subset makes it to the floor is critical. 2/
So far, almost nothing Trump wants to do has made it to the floor! 3/
And some things that have (Russia sanctions) were *specifically* aimed against the President. 4/
Trying to understand POTUS influence requires a denominator that consists of the POTUS policy agenda. Hasn’t been on floor yet. 5/
Second point, if POTUS supports what does come to the floor, that’s perfectly consistent with *him* endorsing their agenda. 6/
And honestly, that’s what I see going on here. There’s a Trump agenda and a congressional GOP agenda. Which one looks like the floor? 7/
Third, by the time things get to the floor, there is going to be strong party support. Otherwise it doesn’t get there! 8/
McCain-like health care failures are rare, because modern parties work out their differences before the floor. Or they don’t go! 9/
Now, maybe POTUS has strong influence there. But I doubt it. What evidence is there POTUS is even helping on the coordination front? 10/
Now, you might want to talk about nomination. How should we measure GOP influence on this? Start with the donominator. 11/
That is, start with the list of people Trump would appoint if Senate confirmation wasn’t required. 12/
In my mind, that list is *radically* diff that what we got. You may not like Jeff Sessions, but I doubt DJT noms him w/o conf process. 13/
The visible space of voting against noms on floor, again, gives very little info about influence. Check old post:
So how do Corker and Flake fit into this today? In a variety of ways. 15/
First, they are publicly signaling that the president is incompetent, which affects both his approval numbers and his reputation in DC. 16/
Both are important sources of POTUS power, i.e. his ability to get people to go along or not stand in way. 17/
Second, these are major agenda distractors. Whatever plans there were—health care, taxes, infrastru, Wall, this fall: slipping away. 18/
It’s amazing that the “They always vote with him crowd” doesn’t seem to recognize the legislative presidency is a total fail right now. 19/
So, in sum: roll call POTUS/GOP correlation doesn’t show causality, agenda setting, selection bias, or pre-floor action. 20/
Imagine a world where POTUS was monarch: what laws would you have? How does it compare to this world? /FIN
GOP Members may strategically say they support the Trump agenda, but I don’t see a lot of evidence. They support their agenda. 22/
Trump is not involved much in policy details, anyway. He tends to just supports what they put on the floor. That’s not influence. 23/
