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Alberto Nardelli @AlbertoNardelli
, 8 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
A thread on the latest Brexit shit show (sorry):

1) Important to understand EU27 position: the request is for UK to guarantee that *absent other solutions* there will be no hard border in Northern Ireland *under all circumstances*
2) The demand is due to May’s redlines - the UK is leaving the single market & customs union - and this seems irreconcilable with avoiding a hard border
3) The UK has been aware of this since those redlines were set – and nobody has come up with a workable solution that doesn’t involve magical thinking, empty rhetoric, tweeting sonnets or science fiction
4) Important to understand at this point that UK and Ireland being in the single market & customs union (and out of Schengen) is instrumental to there not being a hard border today thejournal.ie/cross-border-c…
5) It's equally important to understand there aren't just "some" sectors affected by Brexit, or "agriculture, energy *etc.*" but up to 140 areas of north-south cooperation newstatesman.com/politics/stagg…
6) UK could choose to ditch its redlines or commit whole UK to continuing full regulatory alignment in the affected areas, but doing so would affect UK's scope for manoeuvre in future (eg trade deals, setting rules, standards)
7) Alternatively, if and when the UK diverges in those relevant areas, were no other feasible solutions found, or in a no deal scenario, the UK would have to guarantee that Northern Ireland continues to fully align in those areas if a hard border is to be avoided.
8) You can argue over semantics and sequencing all day, but the substance of the issue is clear.
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More from @AlbertoNardelli see all

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Brexit. Things are getting worse.

1. The withdrawal agreement is needed regardless of the shape of the future relationship. The withdrawal agreement on the table, including the backstop, will not be renegotiated. EU27 cannot be clearer on this point – and this is the key point.
2. Throughout these negotiations, so many problems have been created by N10’s inability & unwillingness to set realistic expectations, explain tradeoffs and communicate clearly. As the PM runs out of road, the confusion over the withdrawal agreement is the latest example
3. The political declaration allows for a full spectrum of future options, but it is not clear what kind of relationship the UK wants. This will require a proper debate on tradeoffs (and years of negotiation). However, whatever that option: you need the withdrawal agreement
Read 7 tweets
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About last night:

1) May went to the meeting seeking legally-binded assurances with half-baked proposals to placate hard Brexiteers & DUP

These have been rejected repeatedly for obvious reasons. Backstop is an insurance policy not “a trap.” Not EU27 problem many MPs ignore this
2) May was asked by several leaders, and, I am told, most emphatically by Chancellor Merkel: 'what is it that you want?'

The prime minister was unable to provide an answer to this question with any precision.
That is where May is at in a nutshell: Nearly two years after triggering article 50, the UK does not have an answer to the question, "what do you want?"

There are also concerns that the UK – across the political spectrum – has no idea what kind of future relationship it wants.
Read 7 tweets
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EUCO draft Brexit conclusions: I understand that paragraph 5 (EU stands ready to examine whether any further assurances can be provided..) has gone.
Par. 1, which wasn't in square brackets, is of course unchanged: "The Union stands by this agreement and intends to proceed with its ratification. It is not open for renegotiation."
Par 2 unchanged: EU reiterates wish for 'as close as possible partnership.." 'stands ready to embark on prep immediately after signature of WA to ensure negotiations can start asap after withdrawal'. Understand 27 discussed starting prep work on future deal as soon as UK ratifies
Read 12 tweets

Related threads

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Interesting bits from the Prime Minister’s #Brexit letter …bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…. The absolute primacy of ending free movement as the driver of the Referendum result- perhaps the one Leave argument she personally buys..
But ending FOM for EU citizens also removes it from UK citizens. PM does not mention that.
Second the stress on the benefits of ending vast annual payments.. But she knows that direct savings will not be huge as we take over programmes (CAP, replacement structural funds), incur costs of setting up own agencies
Read 21 tweets
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A thread on fish & #Brexit.

Here is a chart that highlights the four main fish caught by UK vessels, and landed in the UK. #Herring #Mackerel #Cod #Haddock

You need cod & haddock for fish & chips, but not herring & mackerel.

Remember this, it's important.

/1
The no.1 and no.2 fish the UK catches are mackerel and herring, but they are all for export.

The UK sends 81% of its mackerel, and 93% of its herring abroad. Mostly to Norway and the Netherlands.

/2
Remember fish & chips?

The UK only catches a tiny quantity of the cod it consumes: only 5%.

The rest comes from overseas.

/3
Read 8 tweets
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Senior sources say UK prime minister May has secured private #Brexit concessions from Brussels that will allow her to keep the whole of Britain in a customs union, avoiding a hard border in Northern Ireland thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/r…
EU concession 1: The EU will write an all-UK customs deal into the legally binding withdrawal agreement so an EU-designed “backstop” treating Northern Ireland differently from the UK mainland is not required
EU concession 2: There will be an “exit clause” to convince Eurosceptics the UK will not be under the EU's customs regime for ever
Read 8 tweets
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1/ Theresa May has made 3 fundamentally incompatible #brexit promises regarding Northern Ireland at least one of which she has to break and one of the 3 groups she will have to betray
2/ Theresa May has promised A. Continued open border in Ireland to the Irish B/ to the #Brexit hardliners that we will withdraw from the customs Union and single market and an end to open borders C/ no difference in #brexit terms between Northern Ireland and rest of the UK
3/ the only way to keep the promise of No hard border in Ireland is to stay in single market and customs Union. This will incense the tory #Brexit hardliners as it will result in losing any say on making rules we still have to obey rendering brexit pointless
Read 9 tweets
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Thread: "#Brexit & #Chequers, the sellout. Dump it, let's move on".
...
I keep hearing "Where is the plan?" and a load of misinformation on #Brexit, pushed on UK media by irrelevant & biased commentators, elevated simply because they are avid Remoaners.
They aim to distract.
1/19
We already knew from those tasked with the negotiations, there had been a definite direction of travel & #Brexit plans were well advanced, prior to #Chequers.

2/19
David Davis & his team had been constantly rebuffed by Number 10, as they tried to pursue a proper #Brexit plan, but they HAD been making progress.

3/19
Read 19 tweets
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#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets

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#NoDeal #Brexit #style #StopArt50Clock #xenophobia #Luxembourg #DExEU #brexit #DEN #HarryLeslieSmith #Irexit #Hungary #Fraud #Spain #WindrushGeneration #HostileEnvironment #Merkel #Herring #pseudoscience #PeoplesVoteMarch #timefortruth #BREXit #StopBrexit #rhetoric #NOR

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