1/Many of us recently noted that New York City, the most diverse city in America, is also one of the safest.
2/People I know on the Right almost all responded by saying: "Of course New York is safer, it's gotten more white."
3/Now, Heather MacDonald has an article in National Review making essentially this same claim. nationalreview.com/article/454997… 
4/So is this right? Is the replacement of black residents by white residents the reason for New York's epic crime drop?
Here is the data for % white, % black, and murder rates in NYC by decade, from 1960 through 2010.
Here is the data for % white, % black, and murder rates in NYC by decade, from 1960 through 2010.
5/First thing to notice: The white population % of NYC fell in each of these decades.
Second thing to notice: The black population % fell only slightly since its peak in 1990 (from 28.71% to 25.55%).
Second thing to notice: The black population % fell only slightly since its peak in 1990 (from 28.71% to 25.55%).
6/Now look at murder rates.
In 1980, when the murder rate was FOUR TIMES as high as in 2010, the white population % was slightly higher, and the black population % was slightly lower, than in 2010.
In 1980, when the murder rate was FOUR TIMES as high as in 2010, the white population % was slightly higher, and the black population % was slightly lower, than in 2010.
7/Since murder peaked around 1990, the black population % has fallen by around 3 percentage points, while the white population % has fallen by over 8 percentage points.
8/Inescapable conclusion: NYC's epic crime drop was NOT due to the population of the city shifting from black to white.
Don't let racial stereotypes eat your brain, folks! Always look at the data. (end)
Don't let racial stereotypes eat your brain, folks! Always look at the data. (end)
