![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DSYnMhAWAAIvBsn.jpg)
1. The "ultimate payoff of world domination" is fixed at $10m per coin.
2. All-or-nothing scenario: world domination or bust. (I actually disagree with that.)
3. No interest rate or NPV accounting.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DSYtS6WWsAANFf7.jpg)
1. Naive estimates tend to be off by orders of magnitude,
2. usually biased upwards.
3. Trying to counter this upward bias often leads to an estimate of ε = 0. This is also wrong.