Thread by @dr_kaduru

If you are going to Candidate for House of Representatives in most States, and do not want to be a part of the existing political infrastructure, you are in for a rough ride come 2019.

Yet you can do it!

You see, the existing political infrastructure has 3 things going for them:
- Funds
- Grassroots structures, largely built on "stomach infrastructure"
- Access to security infrastructure

Looking at funds.

To pull off a successful House of Representatives campaign, with or without a “sellable” message other than “I am young and we need to take charge,"

a. You need N150M
b. You need a Fundraising Master stroke that includes a GoFundMe account starting yesterday.

This is especially important because with a financial war chest, you can bypass traditional party infrastructure.

Listen, most parties will not have a House of Rep candidate in your constituency.

This means that, with your money, you can take over the structure of any of the much “weaker” parties, and build up the structure.

Now, in your search for N150 million Naira as a young person:

1. Your savings are not going to help;
2. You most likely do not have Uncle Aliko;
3. You need 10,000 people to give you N15,000 contributions.

Breathe.

Know that this is your reality.

So, you need to sit down, and find a team of friends, volunteers and well wishers, who will go out there and literally beg for money for you.

Your 5,000 twitter follows will not help you enough in this case.

Beyond funding, there is the core issue of local structures.

Seasoned politicians have built supposedly loyal grassroots followers, based on stomach infrastructure.

Yet, this is one area where you have a colossal advantage, when you have built up your financial war chest.

You see, as deputy campaign chair for a House of Reps. campaign against the 2015 elections, we unofficially spent monies in the range of N200M, but these were guzzled by the so-called structure of loyalists at the grassroots.

Party Stakeholders cost nearly N100M working to secure tickets for the primaries.

You will buy Don Perignon, Hennessey and Red Label for nearly 50 courtesy visits to Party stakeholders.

You will leave gifts.

So in bypassing the “regular” party infrastructure and going for a near dead party, you already save N100M on the seasoned politician.

(ps. there are benefits to going through the regular party structure which you will lose, make no mistake).

Yet, in bypassing the loyalists, who are seasoned at “chopping” your money, you are left with a few human resource challenges:
- Who will lead me to opinion moulders?
- Who will canvass votes for me?
- Who will be my booth, collation centre and LGA agents on election day?

So, as a key part of your structure, you then have a need to be endorsed by strong Men, from each of your wards, who believe in you and your message, and are not tied to existing parties or candidates.

Good luck with that.

Yet, if by some miracle, you have 24 key men and opinion moulders in your Constituency, who will speak up for you and commit to overnighting your booths, you have a shot.

Believe me, securing these guys will be harder than securing the N150M.

Yet, spending 30% of your N150M to chase 24 Ward Strong men is well worth it.

These Ward strong men, are going to be 30% of your victory.

After the Ward Strong Men, come the need to focus your attention on the Booths and the people.

You see, INEC registers people by the booths that they will vote, and so around each booth, you have a cohort of about 500 people registered to vote.

The Booth then present you two challenges:
- Who will man my Booths on election day - agents and surveillance staff?
- Who will secure me town hall, community and interpersonal communication meetings with people and canvass votes for me around each booth?

Now 40% of victory depends on this segment of the election.

As a young person, your best bet is probably to avoid rallies. Those are fanfare, make noise and sway very few actual voters.

Small meetings will pay you - Town hall, community and interpersonal communication meetings.

In running for House of Rep, your constituency has a maximum 100,000 registered votes.

If you assume that the registers are “padded" by 30%, which is what we have seen in 3 different States now, that leaves you about 70,000 voters, with anticipated 40% voter turn out.

Like I said before, 40% of your victory depends on the work you do here, and so you need to spend 40% of your money here - meeting people, wooing people, knowing people.

Your job is especially to convince people who do not normally vote, that you are worth their time.

The 40% voter turn out is split between the big guys anyway, and only crumbs will fall to you.

Yet, if you can increase voter turn out to 60%, with your people making up 20%, you are on your way to victory.

So you need to focus on fighting voter apathy, building a social contract with your 20% & engaging them one on one.

20% of 70,000 is 14,000 people. You need to engage & convince 14,000 people to come out and vote for you. You need to have a plan to remind them the night before.

So far, you have spent N45M on 24 strong men who will supervise your Ward collation centres and follow you to the LGA collation centres.

You have sent N60M meeting voters, wooing them, printing materials to help you, sending SMS blasts, preparing for last minute canvassing.

You have spent N105M, on a weak party structure, towards attracting real voters to yourself, and securing support from a “few” good men who can not be bribed and who believe in your cause.

If you have got this far, you have done very, very well.

Your fundraising is set.

Your grassroots structuring is on track and victory is well within reach.

Yet, you are now about to face the most tricky phase on the election - challenging existing security apparatuses and the system.

So far, you have played the System. You have raised funds without a Godfather. You have built community support through your charisma and resources.

But now, you have to face the system.

Dear Young People,

The System is designed for the Political class, and not for everyone.

You will know this when you apply to the Police and Civil Defence for a Special Protective Unit. You will know this when you go for your DSS screening or if you apply for a detail.

You will know this when you go to INEC to handle paper work.

You will know this when you are invited by security apparatuses for cross-party dialogues on peace and security during elections.

The system will be against you & will be preparing to pull the carpet from under you.

And so your last N45M comes in.

You need to:
- Invest in surveillance staff, with pocket pen cameras to man every booth and record events;
- Invest in gifts for everyone;
- Invest in personal security for yourself through all means necessary;
- Buy cojones for the rough stuff!

30% of your election success depends on this phase of the election. Yet, it is the most tricky part.

You have to handle it smartly and wisely.

You have to make sure that your operations room and response team are as mad as you are!

I have made this thread, because it is important to share certain experiences with other young people, who are mad enough to fight the system and try to get elected, so they can fix the system.

You need to find money, build local support and prepare for the security component of protecting your votes.

Above all, you need to think long and hard, about whether you have what it takes, to do what needs to be done.

It is not going to be a polite conversation on twitter!

We spent nearly N200M trying to go through regular party structures, with the attendant benefits of wider party financial resources and structures and still did not Win (on election day and in the courts).

Our biggest flaw? We thought it would be a polite conversation!

If you came this far, then you have a genuine interest in politics and in candidatures. Good stuff.

Will you put a Candidature together though?

I hope that people like @nnabros will share their experiences as well, on the good, the bad and the ugly, so that other Young people learn.

Happy Sunday :)