1) So, I promised an Iran thread after the Quite Frankly podcast with @PoliticalOrgy, and here it is. Let me start by stating: this drunken asshole on twitter believes regime change is imminent. Take it or leave it.
2) Security forces from the IRGC and Basiji militia are burning ID cards and quitting in increasing numbers.
3) A local Kurdistan (western Iran) branch of a major government owned bank, one of the top four banks in the Islamic world by sheer size as of 2009, ran out of money and was burned by protestors.
4) Before THAT, there were reports from six government banks that richer Iranians had started to withdraw their money in mass.
5) Earlier this year, despite the Iranian governments' protests, Irans banks were near collapse anyways financialtribune.com/articles/econo…
6) Every bank that falls, local security forces and military and people uninvolved in the protest lose their savings. Their money.
7) There will be no civil war. There will be an economic collapse as the regime that ran Iran's economy into the ground for DECADES is chased out of the country by angry security forces whose paychecks just bounced.
8) The banks lender of last resort, the central bank? Ran by a guy who endorsed smaller 'credit unions' that were revealed to be ponzi schemes. The central bank lacks the independence to have the lattitude on monetary policy is needs.
9) I want to thank @MuradTounsy for this graphic, because this segways into my next point nicely
10) The mullahs, the Supreme Leader, they control everything. The government is an autocratic Islamofascist dictatorship. State control of all major banks and many minor ones by proxy through security forces. State control of oil industry among so many others.
11) Look at the 'approval required' lines. Let me point a few things out.
The Guardian Council and the Expediency Council are both required to be filled with men learned in Islamic law. The Guardian Council is supposed to oversee and appoint the Supreme Leader, but he in turn appoints members if the Guardian Council.
13) The Guardian Council, in turn, approves of everyone who can even be IN the nonreligious part of the government. It is a controlled, carefully pruned democracy. A sham.
14) The Expediency Council? Its job is to 'resolve conflicts' between the Guardian Council, the President, and the Parliament. They are all appointed by the Supreme Leader. As stated before, they are Islamic Law scholars by requirement.
15) Their actions and decrees strip power from the secular government branches regularly. The head of the central bank? Guess who has say in appointing him now.
16) After the previous president, Ahmenijehad or however the fuck you spell it, replaced two heads of the central bank in turn due to their inability to align their monetary policy with his fiscal policy, the Expediency Council robbed the President and his cabinet of that choice.
17) An autocratic government with vestigial remnants of democracy, a uniparty control at the top echelons in ideology, state control over banks and major industries. What does that sound like to you? Eh, @PoliticalOrgy? Its one of my super obvious questions!
18) Socialism. Islamofascist Socialism. That's why the Obama administration wanted SO BADLY to get this Iran Deal to happen. Because it was a socialist government, and only the enlightened excellency of Obama could TRULY negotiate with a socialist state like that!
19) No other administration could CONNECT with Iran in such a way, the Obama administration thought, no one else understood this socialist nation like Obama could. And so they bent over backwards to give Iran everything it wanted!
20) Surely if given the chance Iran would show the purity of its intentions! Given the chance to reenter the world stage on its terms Iran's socialist government would be a great ally to Hillary's New United States!
Fucking moron.
Fucking moron.
21) I'll invite @Debradelai to fact check this thread if he likes, this is definitely far more his field of expertise than mine, buuuut I think I got the nuts and bolts of Iran's current demise and why the hell Obama's administration bought it another 2 years of life. /end
