Thread by @rdonoghue

Look, one of the reasons we don’t trust anecdotes as data is because people paid to speak LIE ALL THE TIME.

That really compelling story with the ending that moves you which really drives home that old white guy’s point? Fiction.

This message brought to you by every story told by an authoritarian that ends with an imaginary kid saying “I wish my parents cared enough about me to impose those rules and limits on me!”

And note, I say this as a person who loves good anecdotes - that is to say, a bullshitter. There is art and value in these stories! But that is in the *telling*, less so in the re-telling.

Using other people’s anecdotes risks fooling yourself.

The person telling the anecdote *probably* does not mean you ill (though they might). They know the story is a lie, but feel that it reflects a deeper truth, so that balances out.

I’m cool with that. That’s storytelling. But that’s why it’s not portable.

None of this is surprising with even a little thought. We know that’s how talking goes.

But it’s worth thinking a little bit about *transmission*. The person who hears and relays the anecdote has now stepped away from the underlying truth into something else.

If the anecdote is well crafted, then maybe the message sticks. But more likely it mutates (especially if it’s more compelling than true), and now *that* is the message.

This is a mere problem in conversation, but an outright health risk online.

It might be solved by people lying less, but HA HA HA HA.

Best bet is just remembering that anecdotes are trouble, even if (especially if) they are from people you trust. Their intent can be good and the package can still be bad.

Also: Good bullshitters know all this, and it’s baked into how they make good bullshit. It’s worth learning the tricks because it makes it easier to spot mediocre bullshitters who are just mimicking the form

Because there *are* people who share their personal experiences and it’s powerful and moving and needs to be taken seriously.

So there are also people who think “How can I sound like *that* when I sell my brand?”

I mention this because it’s easy to think the right answer is to not believe anyone’s stories. Yay cynicism. But that is a *worse* solution in many ways, not least of which because if you do that, the unacknowledged things you believe metastasize into “common sense truths”

You will be fooled. We are all fooled all the time.

Getting fooled is like many security issues - if you try to create an invincible system, it’s intensely fragile. The trick is to build a resilient system, one with checks that keep getting fooled from hurting you or others.

This, however, is a giant rabbit hole, and I have a cake to make. So find some liars you agree with (and if you can’t, the problem is you are bad at spotting them - I promise they exist) and use them as a learning surface.