Has someone finally convinced Trump that it would be devastating for US economy to exit NAFTA and that’s why he’s reconsidering TPP? The only thing worse for US than exiting NAFTA would be to maintain treaty and not join TPP.
If US remains in NAFTA but NOT in TPP, there would be a huge incentive for US manufacturers to relocate to Mexico or Canada as their products would be able to access, duty free, the NAFTA market and the TPP countries.
Alternatively, the US exits NAFTA and TPP and then manufacturers know that to access US market they need to manufacture in the US. But to stay in NAFTA and not in TPP makes no sense now that TPP-11 was signed.
Which makes me wonder that now that Trump realized the world would not stop trading because he says so, he’s trying to catch up and that’s why he’s reconsidering joining TPP. No other explanation for the change of mind.
Trump quit TPP at a time when he could still claim ignorance of the consequences. However, he’s been duly warned about the consequences of quitting NAFTA by all affected sectors and legislators, making the decision all the more difficult, in essence, locking him in.
So he’s stuck in the worst of all places, with NAFTA and without TPP. Time to backtrack on TPP, and start the process of joining.
