Thread by @fenrir_71

(Thread)
There's been a lot of malaise and defeatism amongst good folks out there, and the soldier in me refuses to accept that.

Morale is KEY to winning.

I've been helping that out, here and there on threads, but people keep asking me how I can be so positive.
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Let me say first, emotionally this has NOT been easy for me, nor any of you out there. The pain of this administration is real for SO many, and each has their own reason. After the election I hid from people for days.

But then I got motivated again.
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For my kids, for your kids, for our great experiment of self governance. I refused to believe that despotism will take our great nation.

I STILL refuse, as I know all good people do.

So I've done what I do best: talk.

Here and in the world, to EVERYONE.
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I'm sure the woman at the grocery store wanted me to shut up, but I bet she'll go vote.

But there's one thing I do pretty damn well too, and that's think.

And lemme tell ya, I've been doing quite a bit of thinking about the causes of this calamity.
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So here's where I help you all feel better (I hope). It's gonna take a while to get there, but it'll be worth it. Also, please keep in mind I am no professional with these things, just a regular person who gives a shit and prolly thinks WAY too much.
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Also, my numbers are internet research driven so they could be cleaner I'm sure.

First, we'll start with a chart someone posted here a while ago that got me to thinking in the first place:
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In 2008 voter participation was 58.2% and Obama/Biden won with 52.9% of the vote. In 2012 participation was 54.9% with the victors claiming 51.1% of those votes. Voter participation below is 58% as you can see, with the final 3rd party tallies at 3.1%.
Those numbers are TIGHT
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I not getting into margin of victory for 2016 because the popular vote winner didn't win, so it's irrelevant.

What's important to me here, is that roughly 42% of us stayed home.

Why?

Complacency. Polls told us Trump had a 3% chance of winning,
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and I'm just gonna come out and say it that a LOT of people just don't like Hillary Clinton. Good people too, so don't get your hackles up folks, okay?

Truth can be quite painful as we all know.

So these people, in select areas, just stayed home and in classic American
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style, let others carry the burden of distasteful deeds.

If you don't think that's true, remember that roughly 1% of us serve our country in the military.

So let's assume that 3-4% of those non voters turn up this time. To me that's low. People are PISSED and pissed people
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pay attention; anger does that.

I was born in the early 70s, not very old really, but I've never seen so many people pay attention to U.S. politics in my life. I've been talking about it to anyone who'd listen for years and nobody ever wanted to hear it.

They sure do now.
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So if we assume a small percentage of voters will show up that didn't we're good right?

Not so fast. This is a mid term we're talking here, not a general. Those votes have to SPREAD b/c of gerrymandering. The numbers I've seen to retake the house sit at about 7% +dem for
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for the dems to take it back from repubs. We're hovering around there right now, which is tense. But if there's anything I've learned about polls it's their snapshot nature and that the details matter.

Now Trump's overall numbers you all know I'm sure, but what interests me
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is the "inner numbers." Where does that support come from? Who does/doesn't support him?

Trump's numbers are crashing w/women and millenials. Plummeting I think.

Anyone else I've left out, well almost everybody, is irrelevant to my thought process here, sorry if it's you,
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but it's me too, so don't feel left out.

It pays to remember also, that Trump won because of a confluence of events and activities that realistically cannot repeat themselves. There are those attempting repeats, but we're wise to that now, paying attention.
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So what we have here is a uniquely motivated electorate with numbers moving inexorably in the dems' favor.

Women don't like Trump, and you can bet they'll show up in huge numbers this year. We're going to owe them thanks.

Millenials don't like Trump and there's a year's
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worth of them ready to vote for the first time, in protest of Trump. You'll have to stop hating on them after this November, sorry.

These aren't regional groups either, this applies everywhere.

Now sometimes people say to me that this is urgent, this is NOW.

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I disagree.

Norms are being tested and broken sure, but that can lead to new and better norms, which they will.

The sense of urgency is being put upon us by the MSM, simply put. They need that to keep your eyeballs. It's not consciously manipulative, it's just business.
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Remember this about them: if it bleeds it leads. That's all you need to know.

Democracy moves slow, even though these days feel so FAST. With the best of conditions our Congress moves pretty slow, and currently the repubs can't even get along with
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themselves.

This is an election year so not much else will get done but campaigning. Trump is pushing them to hard votes too, so that will help us as well.

I feel this summer will move FAST, giving us the edge to victory. Folks are ready to vote, in big numbers.
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I'm sure this meandered, and I apologize if it's hard to follow, but the end result is that there ARE far more of us and we ARE motivated.

Ted Cruz was right: we'd crawl over broken glass to vote this year.

I know I would, and I bet you would too.

Don't let the malaise
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take you, stay positive, keep up our resistance and most importantly VOTE. Bring a friend, drive your neighbor, whatever, just get out and do what you can to help.

We're gonna win, never ever forget that because you NEED that, as all soldiers know.
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I'm going to leave with my favorite motivational post, because I believe with all my heart it's true. Storm those gates this November everybody, stay vigilant and be patient. Change comes slow.

And remember this:

WE. ARE. LEGION.

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Thread up above all.

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