1/ The Parable of the Snowflake and the Avalanche
2/ A long time ago in a kingdom, far far away….
3/ There are two villages, each sits in a different valley, each at the base of a great mountain.
4/ One village is called Resilienton.
5/ The villagers in Resilienton have a tradition that every few weeks during the winter, they send a group to the top of the great mountain and set off dynamite.
6/ This dynamite causes the snow that has been building up on the mountain to start to slide down in a small avalanche.
7/ Because they do it pretty frequently, the snow rarely reaches the village and little harm is done.
8/ Though sometimes it does do real damage to fields and outlying structures and the villagers have to repair it.
9/ The villagers of Resilienton believe this is worth it because they know that a small avalanche will not kill them or destroy their village and can help present big avalanches.
10/ The other village is called Fragileham.
11/ The villagers of Fragileham think the villagers of Resilienton are volatile and unsafe. Why would they go set off the dynamite and risk destroying their village. It seems so risky!
12/ The villagers of Fragileham let the snow build up. It looks safe and calm sitting on the top of the mountain. Why bother it?
13/ Most years, this is fine. The snow piles up a bit in the winter and then melts in the summer.
14/ However, one year the kingdom gets a much large than normal amount of snow.
15/ The villagers of Resilienton continue dynamiting the mountain periodically and this time it does do a bit of damage to one side of the village.
16/ "Barbarians!” shout the villagers of Fragileham. "Why would you do this to yourselves? Abandon this tradition!”
17/ Late in that winter, a light snow rolls through the kingdom.
18/ Atop the mountain near Fragileton, a single snowflake strikes and causes two other snowflakes to start to roll down the mountain.
19/ Each of those two snowflakes strikes two more and so on until a full-on avalanche starts rolling down the hill.
20/ Many villagers are tragically buried in the snow and die before they can be removed.
21/ The villagers that survive the catastrophe get together. They demand answers!
22/ How could this have happened they ask? What did we do to deserve this. It was that damn snowflake! But which snowflake?
23/ They form an investigative committee to determine which snowflake caused the avalanche that destroyed the village.
24/ The village newspaper runs headlines: "We will not rest until the snowflake guilty of triggering the Great Avalanche has been found and punished!"
25/ The committee looks over detailed recordings of the last snowfall and determine which snowflake caused the avalanche.
26/ Each snowflake in an avalanche pleads not guilty. - “It wasn’t me! I just pushed two other snowflakes, not the whole mountain!"
27/ That snowflake and all like it become strictly regulated - they will be monitored and corralled so they can never again destroy the village!
28/ The villagers of Fragileham take out huge loans to rebuild the village and equip it with the most advanced Snowflake Monitoring Equipment (TM) and a Giant Snowflake Retaining Wall (TM).
29/ "Now," they think, "we can rest easy!"
30/ The snow behind the wall starts to build up again. When the fatal snowflake strikes the next time, there will be no villagers left to rebuild.
31/ The End.
32/ I read less and less news because almost all media coverage is the equivalent of trying to determine who the guilty snowflake is or how to build a Giant Snowflake Retaining Wall (TM).
33/ They ignore underlying system dynamics because system dynamics neither sell newspapers nor win votes.
34/ Snowflake trials are satisfying to our tribal instincts, but rarely productive.
35/ This was my first attempt at a parable. Thoughts, feedback and criticism welcome.
