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Dr Mike Ward @Schroedinger99
, 11 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
I'm going to make some bold predictions. I hope, as I hoped when I correctly predicted the Trump and Brexit victories, I'm totally wrong; and I'm still going to continue campaigning for Remain; but here goes:
The UK will leave the EU on 2019-03-30. The EU will accept some kind of kludge statement on Ireland (essentially) in exchange for us putting ourselves in a position whereby we are forced to agree to most/all of their demands further down the line.
The UK will later agree to remain in a customs union - essentially identical to the current customs union - but we shall call it something else.
The UK will also (during "transition") quietly agree to remain in the single market - along roughly Norwegian (or perhaps Swiss) lines so that we can say we're not under direct ECJ jurisdiction.
The UK will agree to continued freedom of movement for EU/EEA citizens as the price for continued SM membership but will implement some of the restrictions allowed under EU rules and declare that freedom of movement (as was) has ended.
The UK will agree fish quotas and access to our fisheries for EU vessels that is basically the same as what we have now but will be called something different.
The UK will agree some kind of associate membership of scientific and regulatory bodies that will give us less say but will otherwise keep everything more or less the same.
The hard Brexiters will scream "betrayal!"; but everyone will be bored to death with them by them.
Most Brexiters will simply bask in the fantasy that we now have greater sovereignty and control (we'll have less), gloss over the complicated details, and repeat on loop: "see we told you it would all be fine".
Remainers will be relieved that we still have freedom of movement and associated rights (in all but name) and that the damage to science collaboration and to the economy will be modest.
Everything will settle down again.

/the end
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