Thread by @Hugodixon

1. Massive defeat over customs union is stuff of Theresa May's dreams. It gets her out of tight spot over Irish border and economy - if upheld by MPs.

2. Hardline Brexiters will, of course, go bananas. But what can they do if Parliament says stay in customs union? There's no point in kicking May out.

3. PM couldn't obviously advocate customs union herself. Rees-Mogg would have her guts for garters. But being told to do it by our sovereign Parliament is totally different.

4. Customs union on its own doesn't solve Irish border. We'll also need to follow EU rules for goods. But it would be a big step on the way. So May will breathe sigh of relief.

5. Pro-Europeans shouldn't jump for joy. Of course, we mustn't have border controls in Ireland. But we mustn't be turned into a rule-taker either.

6. We currently have a big say over EU's trade policy. In future we would be what Rees-Mogg likes to call a "vassal state". Not good for our power or pride.

7. Customs union does nothing for our world-class services industry - worth 80% of our economy.

8. Only way to avoid Irish border, protect services and stay a rule-maker is to cancel Brexit. Best way to get that is via #PeoplesVote on Brexit deal.

9. Risk is that pro-Europeans celebrate over customs union, think they've avoided hardest Brexit and stop fighting. We then wouldn't get #PeoplesVote

10. But there's an optimistic scenario. Like somebody who loses their virginity and discovers the pleasures of sex, Parliament may be getting a taste for rebellion over Brexit.

11. First, MPs rebelled over meaningful vote.

Now peers over customs union.

Up to 7 chances to defeat government in Lords in coming weeks.

Then MPs back the Lords

Building up to the big one - the #PeoplesVote in autumn.

12. Pro-Europeans must keep eye on main prize - #PeoplesVote

That means pointing out that staying in customs union is only really good if we also stay in EU.

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