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Tony Addison @TonysAngle
, 6 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
The Brexiteers are correct: if UK doesn't leave the customs union - enabling it to make its own trade deals - then there is no real #Brexit
(Trouble is: leaving CU will damage UK prosperity, jobs & Ireland. Is this the "will of the people"?).
And here is a succinct summary of the Government's customs union conundrum (of its own making) @SebastianEPayne ft.com/content/d07b5c… via @financialtimes #Brexit
And UK can't quickly make up for lost trade with EU-27 after #Brexit if it does leave the customs union, as this @FT graphic shows:
Most of the economies which Liam Fox @tradegovuk promotes as open to a UK trade deal after #Brexit are very small as a % of UK trade (& India favours an EU trade deal first). Exception: the US - but US trade negotiators will drive a hard bargain inc. the dreaded #ChlorineChicken
And a hard border with Ireland (after leaving the Customs Union upon #Brexit ) will be highly damaging to Ireland's prosperity & peace. Interview with an Irish farmer: bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09…
So, in sum #Brexit is deliverable - but at an immense cost to UK prosperity & jobs. And the economy is already slowing as businesses look ahead - to an uncertain future independent.co.uk/news/business/…
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More from @TonysAngle see all

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On UK trade arrangements after Brexit, we need more clarity from the Govt. on SERVICES, in which UK is leader (both financial & non-financial services). Chequers plan focuses on goods #R4Today @MishalHusainBBC 1/5
EU accounts for more than 35% of UK's services exports (> share exported to US). This vastly exceeds the shares of the smaller economies (Oz etc.) with which UK is seeking post-Brexit trade deals #R4Today 2/5
The majority of the UK's services exports are in non-financial services (approx. 70%+). That's legal services, media, architecture, tech etc which provide good & mostly well-paid jobs. These services exports are growing (c. @ONS) #R4Today 3/5
Read 5 tweets
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Services: 80% of UK economy (architecture, management consulting, legal, creative etc) & big services surplus UK runs with RoW & EU. So why does Govt want to damage economy in #Brexit plan being discussed by cabinet today (focusing on goods only?) ft.com/content/2ce78f… via @FT
And anyway services get bundled in today's global value chains for high-value high-tech goods (c. Aircraft engines & their maintenance) which is what UK government is supposed to be promoting via its (mysterious) industrial policy announced back in 2016.
If you wanted a better trade & industrial policy for UK (which is desirable to create high-paying jobs via higher productivity) you wouldn't put it together in the way that #Brexit is taking us (raising barriers to trading with UK's big EU markets).
Read 8 tweets
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Two years on from #Brexit referendum vote, UK growth has slumped. Lowest of any G7 country. Lower than Eurozone. Likely to fall further (c. Airbus). But hey, no worries, it's all #ProjectFear say the #Brexiteers (graphic @WSJ)
Still, young Brits can always pick fruit - rather than look forward to careers in high-tech industries like Airbus. Well done #Brexiteers (but hey, no worries it's all #ProjectFear isn't it?)
Consumer spending slumped after Brexit Referendum #PeoplesVoteMarch 🇬🇧🇪🇺 (Well done #Brexiteers. But hey, no worries it's all #ProjectFear isn't it?)
Read 5 tweets

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So seems point 1 is an extension/elucidation of what @DLidington told #r4today on Dec 14.

FWIW am told by Brussels sources this is now focus of UK 'ask' on reassurances/ clarifications. To set clear aspiration date for trade deal to avoid backstop /1

@DLidington Which as @DavidHenigUK quickly pointed out is, to put it mildly, ambitious. /2

@DLidington @DavidHenigUK This is not least because even if you think a 'quick and dirty' deal is doable on some aspects (you hear some discussion of this) the UK would STILL need to know what it wanted.

And as the Political Declaration makes painfully clear, it doesn't know. Or cannot agree rather. /3
Read 20 tweets
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*New #Brexit poll*

"In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?"

Right 38% (-2)
Wrong 49% (+2)
Don't know 13% (+1)

That is an 11 point lead for "wrong", the largest lead on record

YouGov Dec 5
"Do you think Britain will be economically better or worse off after we leave the European Union, or will it make no difference?"

Better off 24%
Worse off 42%
No difference 19%

Net lead 18 points for "worse off", second highest on record

YouGov Dec 5 #Brexit
Important to recognise underlying polarisation:

90% Remainers say "wrong", 80% Leavers say "right"
70% of Labour voters say "wrong", 68% of Tories say "right"
Upper/middle-class break 56-34 for "wrong", working class 42-40 for "right"
Read 3 tweets
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SO. #Brexit boils down to how - or if - the UK can ever leave the dreaded Irish backstop.

There is talk of a "review mechanism". So what might that be? How might it work?

Some thoughts after chats with both sides + experts 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
Let's start from the point of agreement.

Both sides say backstop is
a) necessary
b) temporary
c) should be superseded by future relationship

So there does need to be what one EU source calls an "unwinding" mechanism. /2
The problem (before we get to the detail of that mechanism) is that no-one can see what version of the Future Relationship can deliver on UK commitment to no return to a hard border in Ireland.

May's dual tariff or 'MaxFac' unicorns are dead. /3
Read 17 tweets
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1/ Theresa May has made 3 fundamentally incompatible #brexit promises regarding Northern Ireland at least one of which she has to break and one of the 3 groups she will have to betray
2/ Theresa May has promised A. Continued open border in Ireland to the Irish B/ to the #Brexit hardliners that we will withdraw from the customs Union and single market and an end to open borders C/ no difference in #brexit terms between Northern Ireland and rest of the UK
3/ the only way to keep the promise of No hard border in Ireland is to stay in single market and customs Union. This will incense the tory #Brexit hardliners as it will result in losing any say on making rules we still have to obey rendering brexit pointless
Read 9 tweets
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1. So the Norway option is back in the game. It's the one #Brexit approach that can work without a body blow to the economy. It's the only real way to avoid a cliff edge. Without it we will probably see an implosion of regulatory systems and this will simply stop working.
2. Typically any mention of the EEA sends the ultra Brexit loons into a tailspin. They have a crib sheet of counter arguments all of which are based on the most superficial analysis and do not stand up to scrutiny. So here is an unvarnished look at it...
3. Firstly we deal with the assertion we would be a rule take. Firstly, everybody is a rule taker - including the EU. Nobody makes all their own laws. Many based on international conventions and global standards. It is inevitable that we will adopt some EU rules.
Read 25 tweets
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Watch our evidence session today on maintaining EU trade agreements post #Brexit. We'll hear from Lord Hannay and @LORDMARKPRICE We're streaming live from 10am at goo.gl/b3yfgp #UKtrade
Lord Hannay is increasingly worried that the Secretary of State & @tradegovuk aren't giving sufficient priority to countries with which EU has FTAs. A standstill/ transition agreement will delay when these issues will arise, as the UK will stay in the Customs Union. #UKTrade
.@LORDMARKPRICE says what's needed by March 2019: 1 WTO schedules needed to be posted. 2 Anti-dumping & anti-subsidy legislation and to carry over EU FTAs (hence Trade Bill). 3 Pursue “transitional adoption” with parties to EU FTAs. 4 New FTAs post-Brexit #UKTrade
Read 13 tweets

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