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Stuart Budd #PeoplesVote 🇬🇧🇪🇺❄️ @StuartBudd1
, 8 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
1/
 UK Brexit update:
Status: 🤡

The UK government cabinet members are currently in a row over which, non working and rejected version of the / a Customs Union to use or even if they need one.

No one is listening to the CBI

cbi.org.uk/news/evidence-…
2/
 The Labour Party
Status: 😎

Have ignored the TUC on the Customs Union but listened to the EU.
They think that a Customs union is required, because the EU told them one was.

tuc.org.uk/news/britain-s…
3/
 Back Bench Tories & Labour
Status: 😎

A few back bench Tories know that a / the Customs Union is required because the EU told them and they have also listened to the CBI.
4/
 Back Bench Tories & Labour
Status: 😎

A few back bench Tories know that the Single Market is also required. 🤯
Most of the Labour MP's also know this because they have listed to the EU and the TUC.

tuc.org.uk/news/mps%E2%80…
5/
 Back Bench Tories & Labour
Status: 😎

A few back bench Tories & most of the Labour MP's have also done their homework on the Customs Union and Single Market and know that "The" Customs union is probably best. 🤯

qpol.qub.ac.uk/brexit-border-…
6/
 Labour party & most Tory MP's
Status: 🤡

The Labour party and the majority of the Tory MP's are not interested in what the TUC, EU, or CBI say about the Single Market and would prefer to play with their 🦄🦄🦄 's

Nobody is listening to business.

ft.com/content/e00fbc…
7/
 HM Government, The Labour Party, The Conservatives
Status: 🤜 🤛

There will be a fight in:
HM cabinet over: Customs Union
the Conservative party over: Single Market & Customs Union
The Labour party over: Single Market

The Greens, SNP and LibDems are cool 😎
8/
 The DUP
Status: 💰💰💰💰💰

The DUP are in the money. 😀

Meanwhile:
The Conservatives:
Status: 🤠

The Tories need to break one of their promises (the top one) by letting down their members, new members ☠️ UKIP ☠️ and break a manifesto pledge. 🤯

UK Status: 🤡
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More from @StuartBudd1 see all

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1/
 The Withdrawl Agreement

Loss of UK sovereignty
Bound by the backstop
No trade deals
Subjected to laws with no say, bound by the ECJ.

Humiliation for Britain:
politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/11/…

Top 40 horrors lurking in the small print of the Brexit deal
blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/the-to…
2/
 Article 4
The UK is bound by the ECJ after the transition period

Withdrawl Agreement reference:
ec.europa.eu/commission/fil…
3/
 Article 7
The UK will be subject to EU laws under the ECJ during and after the transition period ends.
The "transition period" could last forever.
Read 21 tweets
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1/
 I’m an Expert on Negotiations, and I Have Some Advice for Theresa May
Maybe there’s still hope.....

Ref:
nytimes.com/2018/12/20/opi…
2/
 "It’s not often that you can foretell success or failure clearly at the beginning of a negotiation process. But with Brexit, I could"

"Almost none of what was promised is actually possible"
3/
 On Monday, she reaffirmed that she won’t support a second referendum, a counterproductive move that limits her options and her leverage. But with a vote in Parliament scheduled for the third week of January, she needs to do something to break through the impasse...
Read 3 tweets
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The #Brexit choice......

The UK will align all standards to it's trading market.
EU or US

Satellite of US & take their food standards with no say.
Satellite of EU & take their food standards with no say.

Part of the EU & make the standards on food with full say.

#PeoplesVote
If being a Satellite of the EU and taking standards, including food with no say, can the UK influence legislation?
Yes, a little.
It can ask an MEP from a country represented in the EU to put it's case.
Is the UK any good at it's own food standards?
No.

BSE
Salmonella
Foot and Mouth
Bird Flu
Swine Flu

"we are going, once more, to have the freedom to make our own decisions on …how we label our food…”
Theresa May, 2 October 2016

quora.com/How-serious-is…
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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1. Today in #Brexit tedium: You all saw the Barnier tweet reiterating that a Canada+++ is available and has been from the beginning. The ultra brexiters have taken that to mean an FTA plus whatever fiction they want tacked on to it.
2. They are dishonestly claiming this as a vindication of their position, conveniently ignoring that the EU will not agree to begin talks on any such agreement unless the UK signs up to an NI backstop. The EU is entirely consistent on this.
3. The ultas claim that a Canada+++ deal where they get to define what the plusses mean means that we don't need a backstop, Two problems here. The EU won;t agree to it and secondly, the details of their proposal has the same basic flaw as Chequers which the EU already declined.
Read 20 tweets
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Olly Robbins is in Brussels today for more #Brexit talks.

Top of the agenda is the 'insoluble' Irish backstop issue - but how 'insoluble' it really? Is there a way through?

Maybe. Some thoughts after chats with both sides. 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
First, the problem, real quick.

EU needs 'backstop' that works in all eventualities, including a breakdown in future relationship talks at the end of transition.

With no border in Ireland, there "must" logically be checks between NI and GB to protect single market. /2
The problem is that puts a *customs* border in the Irish Sea, and the UK government cannot live with that, since it splits up UK.

Theresa May was very hard over on this point in her speech in Belfast. Barnier's Task Force 50 blanched last week when they saw how hard over. /3
Read 22 tweets
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The Chequers plan is dying. May faces rebellion on both sides. She can survive, but not proceed. So what happens next? Some thoughts after chats with both sides.

(Shorter: it's still all about the Irish backstop)

1/Thread
As talks get under way in Brussels today, the EU can:

a) attack - eviscerate Chequers for cherry picking

b) parry - play for time, probe UK real red lines

c) focus on what is deliverable to conclude Withdrawal Agreement in Autumn /2

More here: telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
It is the last of these where smart money lies. Chequers is dying anyway and is a 'future relationship issue'.

The focus is delivering a divorce treaty by 29.03.19 and for this most of work is done.

Except the backstop.... /3
Read 18 tweets
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"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets
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The Nigel Dodds interview on #Brexit and the Customs Union issue is worth reading in full...it takes us to heart of problem for May/UK. A quick thread. /1

conservativehome.com/highlights/201…
First point: Dodds is adamant there must be an 'all-UK solution' - so he threatens to bring down Govt if Northern Ireland gets left *on its own* in the Customs Union, while UK is free to diverge. BUT he doesn't totally rule all of UK staying in customs union. /2
Dodds's forceful articulation of DUP red line appears to close off one of the obvious areas of 'give' in the Customs Union conundrum - increased checks on goods between UK mainland and Northern Ireland. Unless someone calls DUP bluff. /3
Read 11 tweets

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