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Jed Shugerman @jedshug
, 17 tweets, 8 min read Read on Twitter
My take in @Slate: “What does Pence know, and when did he know it?” He’s calling for an end of the Mueller investigation out of fear. slate.com/news-and-polit…
“The Cohen news only heightens the risk to @mike_pence. Mueller has Cohen’s records, and may also have Vekselberg’s records. Vekselberg’s payments began soon after Flynn/Kushner contacted Russians. @realDonaldTrump, meanwhile, sabotaged sanctions—the quo in for Russian quid. 2/
3/ “Even if Pence didn’t know of a bribery scheme, he reportedly participated in the cover-up and the obstruction of the investigation. It makes sense for @VP @mike_pence to call for an end to the investigation: he’s an uncomfortable witness and potentially one of its targets.”
Timeline: 11/18/2016: Rep. Cummings, ranking Dem on House Oversight Comm, sends letter to @VP about @GenFlynn links to Russia and Turkey.
12/1/2016: Flynn/Kushner meet Ambassador Kislyak at Trump Tower. Kushner proposed secret line to Kremlin through the Russian Embassy... 4/
12/9/16: In line w/ #SteeleDossier, Russia sells 19% of Rosneft to Qatar & Glencore. A Qatar-backed firm later gave Kushner company a $184 million loan).
12/13/16: Kushner meets Gorkov, chair of VEB, Putin’s slush fund. Gorkov then meets Putin ASAP. slate.com/news-and-polit…
12/28: Obama orders sanctions. Kislyak contacts Flynn
12/29: Flynn’s plea agreement states he called a “senior official of Transition Team” (reportedly Kushner) who was w/other “senior members” of team at Mar-a-Lago, agree they don’t want Russia to escalate. Flynn calls Kislyak.
While @GenFlynn spoke w/Kushner, @mike_pence was in Indiana. But did anyone else on Transition team know? Did Pence or @realDonaldTrump find out? Flynn, under plea deal, may reveal who else knew.
12/30/16: Trump tweets Putin is “very smart” for not reacting to Obama’s sanctions.
Jan 2017: Oligarch Vekselberg begins sending payments to Cohen.
1/4: @GenFlynn tells McGahn, head transition counsel, that he’s under FBI investigation. Flynn is still appointed NSA. Did transition's top lawyer really not tell the head of the transition, @mike_pence? Implausible.
Jan.15: @mike_pence states on Face the Nation: Flynn and Kislyak “did not discuss anything having to do with the United States’ decision to expel diplomats or impose censure against Russia.” Pence says he was told this by Flynn. This claim seems naive, absurd, or both.
Jan.24: In FBI interview, Flynn denies talking about sanctions with Russians.
Jan.26: Acting AG Yates tells McGahn, WH counsel, that Pence was not correct about Flynn’s Russian contacts. Did McGahn really not tell Pence? B/c maybe Pence already knew? Either way, it's troubling.
Feb.9: According to @VP press sec, this is when Pence learned about Yates’ warning. @washingtonpost also reports @GenFlynn had discussed sanctions with Kislyak. But Flynn continues in office w/ security clearance. Even if you believe their official account, this is nuts...
Don't forget this story: At Inauguration, Flynn was texting associates that their corrupt self-dealing nuclear construction plan was "good to go." Flynn said he "was making sure Obama-era sanctions, which blocked the nuclear project, would be 'ripped up.'" politico.com/story/2017/12/…
To believe @mike_pence's version of these events, you still have to believe in a staggering level of incompetence and blindness to ignore so many obvious warnings about Flynn, and an implausible lack of communication. It's possible, but not as likely as a more corrupt scenario...
More likely scenario: Everyone, including @mike_pence, knew what Flynn was doing. That's why they had to hire Flynn despite warnings, and that's why they couldn't fire him when he got caught. Flynn carelessly texted his plans. Why did he feel so comfortable to be so careless?
On the one hand, my father taught me some wisdom: "Never attribute something to malice when it can be explained by incompetence." Maybe that's true here about McGahn and Pence on Flynn/Kushner. Maybe Pence has perfected his art of incompetence and ignorance. However..
Occam's Razor also teaches wisdom: "The simplest answer is probably right." And @joshtpm @TPM has a smart twist in the Trump era: "The most stupid or corrupt answer is probably right." So when reviewing this timeline, what makes sense? Total naive ignorance about @GenFlynn?
Or was there an established conspiracy between Flynn and others higher in the campaign (Kushner? Manafort? Trump?), and at some point, McGahn and Pence found out (or worse)? And they couldn't fire a co-conspirator, who might then turn on them?
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