, 12 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
Manafort and Veselnitskaya big-picture thread:
I think people are overrating the revelation that Manafort shared polling data with Russians...
But underrating the revelation that Manafort was working on "Ukraine peace plan" (i.e., sanctions relief) and links to Veselnitskaya. 1/
2/ Here's a version of the Manafort filing highlights slip-ups. We learn that Mueller has evidence that
A) Manafort shared polling data with Kilimnik (Russian agent)
B) Manafort discussed "Ukraine peace plan" with Kilimnik
*while* he was campaign manager.
3/ Manafort sharing polling data with Kilimnik (and thus with Deripaska) in spring/summer 2016 doesn't look good, but by itself, I don't think it moves the needle much. Seems plausible that Manafort was just showing off his own usefulness by showing Trump had a chance to win.
4/ Maybe Mueller has evidence of a polling data as conspiracy to target voters with disinformation, but I'm wary of relying on 371, conspiracy to defraud (too vague). Maybe it rises to abetting hacking, but then other information is doing that heavy lifting, not this revelation.
5/ Thus, I agree with @benjaminwittes here. But I want to make a more specific point that the "Ukraine peace plan" does move the needle significantly, because it is already part of a bigger conspiracy pointing towards bribery quid pro quo conspiracy. lawfareblog.com/so-how-big-dea…
6/ Let's be clear: "Ukraine peace plan" probably means "Quid pro quo, Americans lift sanctions & give Russia Crimea in exchange for Trumpers getting cash."
There are significant signs already in public domain of such a bribery scheme, and I suspect Cohen and Flynn corroborate.
7/ For example, Cohen and Sater delivered a "Ukraine peace plan" to Flynn while he was still NSA in Feb 2017. See @mega2e @ScottShaneNYT:
8/ At the RNC convention, we also know that JD Gordon was watering down the RNC platform on Ukraine, which seems suspiciously like Russian goals from a Russian-slanted "peace plan." Implausible that Manafort was not directly involved. See @NatashaBertrand businessinsider.com/trump-russia-c…
9/ Bigger picture: A "Ukraine peace plan" is part of what journalists call a "Grand Bargain" w/ Russia over Crimea and Saudi/UAE/Israel over Syria/Iran.
Is it just a foreign policy plan? Or is there a sanctions quid pro quo for Trumpers?
See @adamentous: newyorker.com/news/news-desk…
10/ On its own, Manafort sharing polling is plausibly an isolated move for his own benefit.
But the "Ukraine peace plan" more specifically connects dots of quid/quo from the RNC convention events up through Cohen/Sater/Flynn (all of whom are cooperating)...
11/ That's where Veselnitskaya indict comes into play: Trump Tower, @PaulManafort, @DonaldJTrumpJr, @jaredkushner, a blocked # (@realDonaldTrump?) and a meeting that seems specifically about Russian money laundering (Prevezon) and sanctions.
My thread:
12/ The question in building a case: Can witnesses put these events into criminal context?
Sharing polling data? Lacks cooperating witnesses who'd give it criminal context.
But the "Ukraine peace plan" is the bombshell connecting dots with cooperating witness (Cohen/Flynn/Sater)
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Jed Shugerman
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!