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Jed Shugerman
@jedshug
, 12 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
Manafort and Veselnitskaya big-picture thread:
I think people are overrating the revelation that Manafort shared polling data with Russians...
But underrating the revelation that Manafort was working on "Ukraine peace plan" (i.e., sanctions relief) and links to Veselnitskaya. 1/
2/ Here's a version of the Manafort filing highlights slip-ups. We learn that Mueller has evidence that
A) Manafort shared polling data with Kilimnik (Russian agent)
B) Manafort discussed "Ukraine peace plan" with Kilimnik
*while* he was campaign manager.
documentcloud.org/documents/5677…
3/ Manafort sharing polling data with Kilimnik (and thus with Deripaska) in spring/summer 2016 doesn't look good, but by itself, I don't think it moves the needle much. Seems plausible that Manafort was just showing off his own usefulness by showing Trump had a chance to win.
4/ Maybe Mueller has evidence of a polling data as conspiracy to target voters with disinformation, but I'm wary of relying on 371, conspiracy to defraud (too vague). Maybe it rises to abetting hacking, but then other information is doing that heavy lifting, not this revelation.
5/ Thus, I agree with @benjaminwittes here. But I want to make a more specific point that the "Ukraine peace plan" does move the needle significantly, because it is already part of a bigger conspiracy pointing towards bribery quid pro quo conspiracy. lawfareblog.com/so-how-big-dea…
6/ Let's be clear: "Ukraine peace plan" probably means "Quid pro quo, Americans lift sanctions & give Russia Crimea in exchange for Trumpers getting cash."
There are significant signs already in public domain of such a bribery scheme, and I suspect Cohen and Flynn corroborate.
7/ For example, Cohen and Sater delivered a "Ukraine peace plan" to Flynn while he was still NSA in Feb 2017. See @mega2e @ScottShaneNYT:
nytimes.com/2017/02/19/us/…
8/ At the RNC convention, we also know that JD Gordon was watering down the RNC platform on Ukraine, which seems suspiciously like Russian goals from a Russian-slanted "peace plan." Implausible that Manafort was not directly involved. See @NatashaBertrand businessinsider.com/trump-russia-c…
9/ Bigger picture: A "Ukraine peace plan" is part of what journalists call a "Grand Bargain" w/ Russia over Crimea and Saudi/UAE/Israel over Syria/Iran.
Is it just a foreign policy plan? Or is there a sanctions quid pro quo for Trumpers?
See @adamentous: newyorker.com/news/news-desk…
10/ On its own, Manafort sharing polling is plausibly an isolated move for his own benefit.
But the "Ukraine peace plan" more specifically connects dots of quid/quo from the RNC convention events up through Cohen/Sater/Flynn (all of whom are cooperating)...
11/ That's where Veselnitskaya indict comes into play: Trump Tower, @PaulManafort, @DonaldJTrumpJr, @jaredkushner, a blocked # (@realDonaldTrump?) and a meeting that seems specifically about Russian money laundering (Prevezon) and sanctions.
My thread:
12/ The question in building a case: Can witnesses put these events into criminal context?
Sharing polling data? Lacks cooperating witnesses who'd give it criminal context.
But the "Ukraine peace plan" is the bombshell connecting dots with cooperating witness (Cohen/Flynn/Sater)
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More from @jedshug see all

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Jed Shugerman
@jedshug
GOP, congratulations on your amazing detective work unearthing @SteveKingIA’s secret history of white supremacy in the past 5 days. No one had a clue, but you discovered Google and relentlessly pursued justice...
As soon as he got re-elected.
Coincidence, I’m sure.
2/ Profile in Courage. 2 months after King got re-elected.
3/ Profiles in craven partisanship. @ChuckGrassley, enabling white nationalism again:
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Jed Shugerman
@jedshug
This thread by @andrewsweiss is excellent, a timeline of Trump's secret conversations with Putin before Trump spun (lied) that the Trump Tower meeting was about "Riussian adoptions."
But a much earlier detail is even more damning:
@PaulManafort's own notes from the meeting. 1/
2/ Last week, I reviewed Manafort's Trump Tower notes to show how Veselnitskaya's indictiment shed light on that meeting as a quid pro quo deal: Trump would lift sanctions in exchange for help (and bribes.)
Why "Russian adoption"?
(Thread linked here):
3/ These notes are about Russian money laundering ("illici," Cyprus and Prevezon) and sanctions on Russia (Gazprom, Browder/Glover).
So what's up with "Russian adoption"?
It was part of the bribery conspiracy from the beginning: how to sell lifting sanctions to the public.
Read 10 tweets
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Jed Shugerman
@jedshug
Can Congress or Mueller subpoena the Trump-Putin translator?
Not an easy question. It must take into account some evidence of high crimes and misdemeanors in order to override privilege. I offer a balanced approach with steps and interbranch dialogue here.
shugerblog.com/2019/01/13/can…
I think my bottom line is:
1) Any president who has crossed a probable cause threshold to lose this kind of executive privilege for foreign contacts has *also* crossed the threshold for high crimes and misdemeanors and Senate removal...
2) But if that threshold was met, and yet the Senate fails to remove, the next step is a criminal investigation & subpoena for in camera SCOTUS review.
...perhaps followed by indictment of sitting president.
@pwnallthethings @EricColumbus @AshaRangappa_ slate.com/news-and-polit…
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Joseph Britt
@Zathras3
The major news of today really wasn’t Trump’s awful speech. It’s that his campaign manager was funneling polling data to the Russians during the campaign. #Manafort nytimes.com/2019/01/08/us/…
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>> BOOM >> Mueller has evidence Manafort shared polling data about the 2016 presidential election with Russian intel asset Kilimnik. And lied about it. His lawyers bungled redactions in filing and here we are. #TrumpRussia #Conspiracy #Collusion #RussiaGate #MuellerInvestigation
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NotMyPresident
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