There is no firm deal yet. But worth reflecting on what a 5Star-Lega government would mean for EU: Italy unlikely to be a spoiler unless it is is pushed THREAD from longer piece here cer.eu/insights/what-… politico.eu/article/5stars… @CER_EU
1) Eurozone reform more difficult. Even though Lega and 5S toned down idea of immediately implementing 'flat tax' and universal basic income and unlikely to breach 3pct budget deficit rule their stance pits them against Commission + gives Germany excuse to go give up on reform.
2) Italy will be more sympathetic towards Russia. However, will not try to remove sanctions: drains political capital badly needed in economic sphere and harm relations with the US. Rome likely to maintain EU unity on sanctions while also boosting political and trade ties with RU
3) Italy also unlikely to be instinctively supportive of plans to establish a degree of conditionality in the use of structural funds and sceptical of the notion of a common European defence or procurement market.
Despite this, Rome could yet play a constructive role in the coming years. Much still depends on how the views of the 5S evolve. It has no experience of national government and has not yet had to articulate positions on many policy issues.
Migration is one key area where the EU could engage with Italy. Italian officials want Brussels to invest in signing readmission agreements with African countries, making available funds of the same order of magnitude as the €6 billion the EU has pledged to Turkey.
On Eurozone reform, European leaders could work towards a small eurozone budget to stabilise shocks – perhaps the limit of what is currently politically possible. And, Italy could change its mind on European defence if it sees that Italian companies can benefit.
The coming years will be crucial for the EU. If chance to reform eurozone governance is missed, and the EU does not do more to convince Italians that the EU benefits them, Italians will become more eurosceptic – in a few years leaving € or EU may no longer seem unthinkable.
