Profile picture
Leo Hickman @LeoHickman
, 4 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
. @DetlefvanVuuren explaining the "default strategy" in the models for 1.5C #negco2
Important point by @DetlefvanVuuren:

"IAMs focus on cost-optimisation, not on societal constraints"

For example, diet change is not something normally assessed.
. @DetlefvanVuuren explains kinds of life-style change required for 1.5C pathway whilst greatly reducing reliance on BECCS.

"Only eating beef once a fortnight"

More here in @CarbonBrief by @DrSimEvans about his new @NatureClimate paper

#negco2

carbonbrief.org/world-can-limi…
Tim Kruger from Oxford Martin School makes point from the floor: "These models are profoundly misleading and dangerous influence on policies"

Van Vuuren: "I disagree. They are a useful tool, as long as you know their limitations."
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Leo Hickman
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Related hashtags

#negco2

More from @LeoHickman see all

Profile picture
We often hear tales about the disrupting/delaying/diluting tactics of "The Saudis" at UN climate change meetings.

It was the same last week at the IPCC meeting in S Korea when the #SR15 special report was finally approved by all the world's govts.

Here's my take...

++THREAD++
Here's what AFP reported last Friday: "Oil giant Saudi Arabia is seeking to block adoption of a key UN climate change report unless a passage highlighting the inadequacy of national carbon-cutting pledges is removed or altered, multiple sources told AFP"

webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache…
And here's AFP's follow-up story, once the report was approved on Sat: "The Saudis had objected to the inclusion of a passage emphasising the need for sharp reductions in the use of fossil fuels - Saudi Arabia's main export"...

webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache…
Read 26 tweets
Profile picture
In January 2007, the BBC aired a special programme presented by Sir David Attenborough called "Climate Change - Britain Under Threat".

It included this imagined weather forecast for a "typical summer's day" in 2020...
...and a little later in the same prog, they include an imagined weather forecast for August 2050...

"Half of the days in that month are expected to be hitting 30C"
Attenborough's sign-off at the end:

"Climate change is surely the single biggest issue the human race now faces…We now have the facts…For all of us, it's truly now the time to act"
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
พี่เยี่ยจะถือถุงช้อปปิ้งให้แฟนนนนน
#หวังcเยี่ย

“เอาตัวนี้ด้วยค่ะ แล้วก็คิดเงินเลยนะคะ”
พนักงานสาวยิ้มร่าแล้วรับเสื้อตัวที่3 มา เมื่อรวมกับของที่ลูกค้าสาวท่านนี้เลือกก็มีทั้งเสื้อ กางเกง และเสื้อโค้ท รวมเกือบสิบตัวแล้ว

“เสี่ยวหวัง...”
“ไม่เป็นไร เดี๋ยวฉันจ่ายเอง”
“ไม่ใช่เรื่องนั้น” เยี่ยซิวยิ้มแหยๆ แน่ละว่าเขาไม่อาจทำเท่บอกว่าจะจ่ายเงินเองได้ ก็แอดมินกะดึกกระเป๋ากลวงอย่างเขา ขืนมาเข้าร้านหรูแบบนี้ ทำงานอีกสิบชาติก็ใช้คืนไม่หมดหรอก แต่ประเด็นที่เขาต้องการจะบอกก็คือ...
“หรือว่าเหนื่อยแล้ว? งั้นจบร้านนี้ก็กลับกัน”
ขณะที่เยี่ยซิวกำลังจะอธิบาย พนักงานสาวก็นำบัตรเครดิต สลิปและถุงใส่ชุดที่หวังเจี๋ยซีเลือกไว้ทั้งหมดมาให้ หลังจากสาวสวยเซ็นชื่อตัวเองก็รับถุงมาไว้ในมือ

“กลับกันเถอะ แบ่งถุงในมือมาสิ เดี๋ยวฉันช่วยถือ”
Read 19 tweets
Profile picture
Cú Chulainn is believed to be an incarnation of the god #Lugh, who is also his father! His mother is the mortal Deichtine, sister of Conchobar mac Nessa, the King of #Ulster who ruled from #NavanFort near #Armagh. #CúChulainn #Irishmyths #Irishlegends #FolkloreThursday
Born Sétanta, Cú Chulainn gained his name as a child, after killing Culann's fierce guard-dog in self-defence & offered to take its place until a replacement could be reared! Used a standing stone or by driving a sliotar down its throat with his hurley! #FolkloreThursday
Cathbad the druid announced one day that anyone who drew arms would have everlasting fame! So Cú Chulainn only 7 years old, asked for arms! But Cathbad grieved because he had not finished his prophecy-the warrior who took arms that day would have a short life! #FolkloreThursday
Read 30 tweets
Profile picture
C'est bon, le match est fini, et vous allez tous aller écouter des groupes de qualité diverse à la fête de la musique.
Alignement de planètes: je vais vous parler d'un truc un peu chiant qui intéressera peut-être 10 personnes ici, mais tant pis.
Alors, pour changer un peu, aujourd’hui on va parler de l’ennemi.
* Musique dramatique*
De l’ennemi en tant qu’objet de réflexion tactique militaire.
*La musique dramatique s’interrompt brusquement*
Eh oui.
Pourquoi c’est important, l’ennemi ? Parce que c’est le cœur de tout le système de pensée, et donc de planification, des militaires. C’est le point central de la conception d’une manœuvre et de l’accomplissement d’une mission.
Read 42 tweets
Profile picture
#Important:
Yesterday late afternoon #Russia/n forces took 3 positions in Qusseyr and Juseh and established checkpoints. #Hezbollah, not informed of the Russian presence, came close to these forces and asked their immediate pull out+
Following the direct intervention of President Bashar al-Assad, the Russian force pulled out this morning and avoided any clash with #Hezbollah in the area.

hezbollah maantin and kept all positions. The #Russia/n move was not coordinated.+

#Hezbollah did not...I repeat, did not pull out one single element from the area.

I spoke to people on the ground: The Russian decision was unclear and considered unwelcome by the forces on the ground. Still, many elements of this move are unclear.

Read 6 tweets
Profile picture
Important point from Rep Rodgers Q about a specific instance of FB's algorithm taking down content that wasn't in violation of ToS. No algorithm is 100% accurate--90% accuracy is quite high. Now imagine applying that algorithm to the hundreds of thousands of posts every minute.
Algorithms suffer from both false positives (Type 1 error) and false negatives (Type 2 error). My favorite visual aid for when I teach this in stats:
In FB's case, if you build an algorithm to automate the process of identifying and removing content in violation of the ToS, you have to assume it will will some that is in violation (false negative) and remove some that isn't (false positive).
Read 30 tweets
Profile picture
César S., photographe de Libération blessé le 18/11/13 par Dekhar a des crises d’angoisse notamment, il ne dort pas depuis une semaine avec ce procès. Sa lettre qui vient d'être lue finit par: "Assister à cette audience est trop dur pour moi, je vous prie de m’excuser. César S. "
César S. a été grièvement blessé au niveau du thorax, la balle, rentrée par le dos, a frôlé le cœur de la victime. Il a été auditionné après avoir été opéré, quelques jours après les faits quand son pronostic vital n'était plus engagé.
#Dekhar
"J’ai constaté que je saignais, je me suis allongé et on m’a secouru". "J'avais du sang partout", "J’avais froid"," j’ai pensé à mes proches, à ma famille", "je pensais être mort". Qques mots de César,photographe de Libé blessé par #Dekhar, quand il a été entendu après les faits
Read 285 tweets

Trending hashtags

#free #FolkloreThursday #alicesweetalice #exhaustion #Hezbollah #MOAB #G20 #CPTPP #nation #HorrorMovies #CúChulainn #EEC #repatriation #MyHealthRecord #CamGirls #theTroubles #Continental #shortages #GrowthCommission #delusion #schedules #moneyLaundering #EMA #anomaly #LastWeekTonight

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!