Rajeev Pawar Profile picture
Trader, Investor, Banker (Views expressed are personal. Retweets and posts shared are not endorsements.)
5 Dec 19
India MPC - Initial thoughts
1. No cut was a surprise. I had gone in with 35!
2. Looks like the RBI listened to the market which has been saying that further cuts will not help revive growth.
3. Clearly RBI is satisfied with transmission - 137 in call money and 218 in CPs! /1
India MPC - Initial thoughts
Contd.

4. Inflation per RBI seems a much greater risk than the market sees it. H2 revision from 3.5-3.7 to 4.7-5.1 is massive!
5. Growth revised down from 6.1 to 5 but there is belief that whatever the govt is doing to revive growth is /will work /2
India MPC - Initial thoughts
contd

Bonds have expectedly sold off more than 10 bps. Expect 10 yr to settle around 6.50%. Rupee seems unchanged at 71.57 and Nifty is holding above 12k.
/3
Read 4 tweets
21 Nov 19
Since it’s finally happening resharing my post on the Impeachment process. We are now at stage 2.

Impeachment 101

Fact 1 : No US Prez has ever been impeached AND removed from office.
/1


#democrats #republicans #impeachment #president #US #Trump #Senate #Congress
Impeachment 101

Fact 2 : Only 2 Prezs - Andrew Johnson and Clinton were impeached. Neither was removed from office.
Fact 3 : #Nixon was not impeached, he resigned.
/2


#democrats #republicans #impeachment #president #US #Trump #Senate #Congress
Impeachment 101

Process
1. Speaker announces start of formal impeachment proceedings
2. House of Reps has to pass this with a clear majority.
3. It then goes to the Senate. The CJ presides.

/3

#democrats #republicans #impeachment #president #US #Trump #Senate #Congress
Read 6 tweets
14 Nov 19
#Moodys has pulled down its growth forecast for FY19 to 5.8%. Only surprise is why it’s not even lower. In the past year growth has collapsed from 8% to 5%. /1
@threadreaderapp

#India #CPI #GDP #RBI #bonds #inflation #ratecut #NBFC #jobs #credit #NPA #NCLT #growth
On the other hand #CPI is now at 4.6%. The laxmanrekha of 4% has been breached. A mix of drought, floods and unseasonal rain is driving food prices up. Core #inflation continues to fall to 3.7% reflecting the slowdown. /2
#India #GDP #RBI #bonds #ratecut #NBFC #jobs #credit #NPA
The wisemen and women of the economy have only one mantra - Cut, Pray, Hope. When in doubt cut rates.135 bps done but transmission is limited. We are told don’t look at nominal, real rates are still high. A single large cut is required. /3
#India #CPI #GDP #RBI #bonds #inflation
Read 16 tweets
19 Sep 19
Hearing the RBI Guv and the #Fed Chair talk over the past 24 hrs two interesting differences come through. Dr. Das is much more confident though reserved in committing to numbers. Jay Powell is more transparent but does not exude confidence in his words. /1

#RBI #India #ratecut
RBI Guv was quite clear that there is limited fiscal space. Wanted spending esp of PSUs to be front loaded. /2

#RBI #India #ratecut
On bond yields he felt the recent spike in yields was largely specific, external event driven. /3

#RBI #India #ratecut
Read 10 tweets
18 Sep 19
A much better performance from Powell. But his tone and body language clearly showed that he believed that the US economy is doing well and this is just an insurance cut against the Trump Trade War and global weakness
#Powell #FOMC #ratecut #Trump #Fed /1 @threadreaderapp
Powell was clear the US will not go to negative rates. He believes that asset purchases and forward guidance have worked in the past and that is the way forward as well.
#Powell #FOMC #ratecut #Trump #Fed /2
On yield curve inversion Powell does not see it as a recession indicator but rather a contraction in term premia driven by global low interest rates.
#Powell #FOMC #ratecut #Trump #Fed /3
Read 11 tweets