Trader, Investor, Banker (Views expressed are personal. Retweets and posts shared are not endorsements.)
Dec 5, 2019 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
India MPC - Initial thoughts 1. No cut was a surprise. I had gone in with 35! 2. Looks like the RBI listened to the market which has been saying that further cuts will not help revive growth. 3. Clearly RBI is satisfied with transmission - 137 in call money and 218 in CPs! /1
India MPC - Initial thoughts
Contd.
4. Inflation per RBI seems a much greater risk than the market sees it. H2 revision from 3.5-3.7 to 4.7-5.1 is massive! 5. Growth revised down from 6.1 to 5 but there is belief that whatever the govt is doing to revive growth is /will work /2
Nov 21, 2019 • 6 tweets • 10 min read
Since it’s finally happening resharing my post on the Impeachment process. We are now at stage 2.
Impeachment 101
Fact 1 : No US Prez has ever been impeached AND removed from office.
/1
#Moodys has pulled down its growth forecast for FY19 to 5.8%. Only surprise is why it’s not even lower. In the past year growth has collapsed from 8% to 5%. /1 @threadreaderapp
Hearing the RBI Guv and the #Fed Chair talk over the past 24 hrs two interesting differences come through. Dr. Das is much more confident though reserved in committing to numbers. Jay Powell is more transparent but does not exude confidence in his words. /1
#RBI#India#ratecut
RBI Guv was quite clear that there is limited fiscal space. Wanted spending esp of PSUs to be front loaded. /2
A much better performance from Powell. But his tone and body language clearly showed that he believed that the US economy is doing well and this is just an insurance cut against the Trump Trade War and global weakness #Powell#FOMC#ratecut#Trump#Fed /1 @threadreaderapp
Powell was clear the US will not go to negative rates. He believes that asset purchases and forward guidance have worked in the past and that is the way forward as well. #Powell#FOMC#ratecut#Trump#Fed /2
