Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #repo

Most recents (24)

1/ THIS IS WHERE WE ALWAYS THOUGHT the #stablecoin regulatory direction would go, which is why @AvantiBT chose to get a bank charter. Anything that touches the USD financial system was always going to fall w/in the Fed's purview, directly or indirectly, esp once it became big.
2/ Plus it makes sense policy-wise. Nonbank #stablecoin issuers gum up the #repo mkt by siloing T-bills & other Level 1 high-quality liquid assets (the repo mkt already finds these assets too scarce). If stablecoin issuers are banks, tho, dormant Fed reserves can be used instead.
3/ Details on the above point are here👇. The v high velocity of #stablecoins comes from their superior tech vs trad payment systems, not from leverage. Traditionally, monetary velocity came from leverage. But thanks to stablecoins it no longer needs to.💪
cato.org/cato-journal/s…
Read 8 tweets
What did saying the Fed continues to put downward pressure on long end yields via “socializing” money markets mean? Combo of standing 5bps RRP rate (was always zero) & increase of IOER to 15bps. ON repo yield EXCEEDS 3MO bills. #FED #REPO #RRP #SOFR cont… Image
…now MM funds have no incentive to buy bills in the free market due to standing 5bps floor. On the other side w/the IOER ceiling set @ 15bps T1 banks have built in perpetual 5bps arb borrowing @ 10bps in FF market & earning 15bps on IOER. #FED #IOER #EFFR Image
…I also think most would be surprised how strong the interest in RRP has become since the new rate was instituted, as well as just how many counterparties beyond T1 banks have access to the window (see current list) newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_co… #FED #REPO #RRP Image
Read 3 tweets
So #FOMC decides to keep rates unchanged at 0%-0.25%

Interest on excess reserves raised by 5bps from 0.10% to 0.15%

Inflation forecast raised by 100bps from 2.4% to 3.4%,though #Fed says long term goal is 2%

No #RateHike before 2023,says Powell;In March,he said,not before 2024
So called overnight #Repo operations where banks exchange high-end collateral for reserves,have been seeing record demand lately,as institutions look for any yield above the negative rates they are seeing in some markets

No plans to stop $120bn of monthly Bond purchases by #Fed
In separate matter,#FOMC announced,it would extend dollar-swap lines with global central banks through end of the yr

Currency program is the last #Covid-era initiative,Fed took to keep global markets flowing

Basically,Fed decides to stay with liquidity glut&easy money policy
Read 5 tweets
RBI Governor leaving Repo unchanged at 4%,ReverseRepo@ 3.35%&Marginal StandingFacility@ 4.25%,on expected lines

Interestingly,MPC voted for status quo unanimously,which is good news

GDP growth projected at 10.5% in FY22,Vs Modi Govt's projection of 11%&IMF's 11.5%
#CreditPolicy
Despite a massive Rs 12 lakh Cr of govt borrowings estimated in FY22,the good thing is,weighted average cost of funds has been 5.78%,so @narendramodi govt will be able to borrow at competitive rates

Accommodative Stance by RBI Governor,bodes well

Reserve money rose by 14.5% YoY
Enough #Liquidity there in system,in LAF window,with banks provided addnl liquidity of Rs 1.53 lakh Cr

Hence,#CRR will be hiked back to 3.5% from 27th March 2021&to 4% from 22nd May,2021

For 1HFY22,#Inflation projected at 5-5.2%,from earlier range of 4.6-5.2%

#RBICreditPolicy
Read 6 tweets
1/ GREAT ARTICLE abt how financial mkt plumbing really works, incl the real reason why Lehman failed & why the same probs still mostly exist: #rehypothecation + a shortage (!) of collateral despite frenzy of new govt debt issued. @JeffSnider_AIP @RaoulGMI realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/…
2/ But lemme connect 3 dots abt how it relates to #crypto

* There's a SHORTAGE of collateral (T-bills, etc)--the stuff big dealer banks NEED in order to fund themselves. Facebook Libra/Diem could worsen that shortage a lot, so you can see why central bankers view it as a threat.
3/ The #repo mkt periodically has disruptions caused by collateral shortages/undercapitalization of the big dealer banks. @JeffSnider_AIP looks at March 2020 in this piece but many other examples exist, eg Lehman in 2008. When repo mkt seizes up, the probs ripple across fin mkts.
Read 14 tweets
RBI credit policy on 4thDec raised GDP forecast for FY21,from minus 9.5% to minus 7.5%;GDP growth will turn +ve in Q3 at 0.1%&0.7% in Q4

Remarkable speed of the turnaround amidst worst pandemic in 102yrs has lots to do with @narendramodi govt's blistering pace of Agri #Reforms💪
CPI in Sep&Oct'20 came in at 7.3%&7.6% and that is precisely why RBI did not lower rates&rightfully so

WPI came at 1.32%&1.48% in Sep&Oct 2020

Supply disruptions&labour shortages,key reasons for high CPI

CPI will fall to 6.8% in Dec&5.8% in Jan2021

Accommodative stance by RBI
Inflation target for 1HFY22 by RBI has been kept@4.6-5.2% range

Core inflation is sticky,feeding into high inflationary expectations but resumption of normality will ease supply bottlenecks&ease #Core

#Accommodative stance leaves window open for rate cuts,albeit not immediately
Read 5 tweets
#RBIPolicy's key highlights

Mood shifting from fear&despair,to hope

Rural economy is resilient

20000Cr OMO slated for 15thOct

RBI to conduct Rs 1 lakhCr #TLTRO,to further augment liquidity

Inflation to ease from Q4
GDP to enter +ve territory from Q4

#Dovish Policy,overall👍
Ample liquidity prevented RBI from reducing #REPO,which has been retained at 4%

Also,inflationary pressures,prevented any further reduction in rates,at this stage

@narendramodi govt completed its 1st half borrowing for FY21 at only 5.82%,lowest in 16 yrs,which is great news💪
Two takeaways from what RBI Governor said&that merit more attention,are

Risk weights will be assigned to all #HomeLoans henceforth,in relation to loan to value ratio,to de-risk home loans

Market operations to be allowed for State Development Loans,#SDLs,to ease States' finances
Read 4 tweets
#July #RetailInflation has come@ 6.93% YoY

CPI for April&May,7.22% &6.27%

#Lockdown related supply disruptions led to spike

In hindsight,#RBI's decision not to lower #REPO in Aug meet,stands vindicated

June #CPI revised from 6.09%,to 6.23%&March revised up,from 5.84% to 5.91%
June&March revisions led by revisions in #FoodInflation

For example,revised food inflation in June is 8.72%,Vs earlier figure of 7.87%

#July food inflation@ 9.62% saw a sharp rise,driven by rising meat,fish&vegetable prices

#Rural inflation in July was 7.04%,Vs #Urban@6.84%
Good bit in July inflation number is #FuelInflation@ just 2.8%

#CoreInflation in July,excluding food&energy,is slated to be in 5.8-5.8% range

Core inflation in June was 5%&3.8% in March 2020--Spike in July,gives added reason not to lower #REPO which is at 20 year low,currently
Read 4 tweets
1/ MORE ANALYSIS-Goldman's new head of #digitalassets is a #repo trader based in LONDON. This is significant bc UK law basically has no limits on #rehypothecation. To be clear I'm not worried abt #bitcoin--as a system it's immune to WallSt's leverage games
2/ That doesn't mean its price won't be impacted tho--bc #rehypothecation fulfills real demand w/ artificially created supply & thereby suppresses price, all else equal. Rehypothecation works as long as there's a lender of last resort. But #bitcoin has no lender of last resort!🚧
3/ So, how many times could a #bitcoin be rehypothecated? In UK there's basically no limit bc the broker/dealer takes outright title to the customer's asset. This is why Lehman transferred so many of its assets to its UK subsidiary from its US subsidiary. kramerlevin.com/en/perspective…
Read 6 tweets
#RBIPolicy at 12pm today,is likely to keep status quo on #REPO rate, which was last lowered by 40bps in May 2020,to 4%

In 2020,REPO cut by a total of 115bps

In 2019 REPO cut by 135bps

What may weigh on #MPC's mind is #Inflation,which was 6.09% in June 2020 Vs 5.84%,in March'20
Some like #ICRA predicting 25bps REPO cut,saying #RBI may want to be ahead of the curve,despite build up of inflationary pressures

Well,10 Yr #BondYield was 5.83% y'day

Today 10 Yr@5.84%--Bond markets are clearly not expecting rate cut

#REPO at 4%,is already lowest in 20yrs
As expected, #RBIPolicy leaves #REPO& Reverse REPO unchanged

Right thing to do,as further reduction in rates at this stage, would have distorted #YieldCurve

Already,3 month #MCLR of #SBI is 6.65%& 1 yr at 7%

#MonetaryTransmission is happening,so more cuts not needed currently
Read 5 tweets
YesBank's 15000Cr #FPO opens on 15thJuly,with 200Cr for employees

#SBI holds 48%+ stake &will invest 1760Cr in FPO

15000Cr will boost #CET-1 of Yes

Brilliant execution by @narendramodi govt--in just 5 months since it exploded, turnaround of #YesBank,tells you how it is done💪
Govt to invest Rs12450Cr in National,United&Oriental Insurance, with their merger being called off for now

23 #CPSEs of govt to invest Rs1.65 lakhCr in FY21

6195.08Cr given as #RevenueDeficit grant by Union,to States

@narendramodi govt working on multiple fronts,despite #Covid
This week #HdfcBank&Bank of Maharashtra cut #MCLR by 20bps, across tenors

SBI cut MCLR by 5-10bps for 3mth tenor,to 6.65%

#SBI's 1yr MCLR is also low@7%

#Repo cut of 135bps in 2019& 115bps in 2020,to 4%,has lowered lending rates& #EMIs,helping middle class&businesses

#Economy
Read 8 tweets
Recently,there's been huge outcry over #Cessation of 7.75% #RBI #taxablebonds,that were issued in Jan2018,with 7yr maturity

Outcry is unjustified

#Repo rate is 4% now,lowest in last 20 yrs,to benefit borrowers

Its only practical to see realignment
of lending rate&savings rate!
For those in tax bracket of 30%,return is 5.4%,while for those in lowest bracket of 10%,post-tax return is 6.97%

Those in 30% bracket but with 5Cr+ invested,get post tax return of 4.4%

#Cessation means no fresh subscribers;Existing investors dont need to redeem till maturity!
Those alleging,#SeniorCitizens will get adversely affected by #Cessation of these bonds,are wrong

Senior citizens can invest in #VayaVandanaYojana,with 10 yr lock-in,at 7.4%;This scheme was to expire on 31stMarch2020,but has been renewed for another 3yrs by @narendramodi gov👍
Read 6 tweets
#RBI cut by 40bps each of these👇
#Repo rate to 4%
#ReverseRepo to 3.35%
#BankRate to 4.25%

Decision was reached after 5:1 vote,with #ChetanGhate,lone voice calling for 25 bps cut

#MPC meet was held ahead of schedule from 3rd-5th,June

#EMI #moratoroum extended by 3 more months
Moratorium extension till 31st August 2020,is both timely &reflective of @narendramodi govt's alacrity--Big relief to #MiddleClass

Measure to convert #moratorium interest payment into #TermLoan payable in FY21,is helpful

This will reduce #NPAs &stress on banks' balance sheets
#RBI's cut in #Repo will reduce cost of funds&extension of #moratorium will be supportive of financial stability;#Rates across #YieldCurve will move lower from current levels

Fall in #ReverseRepo rate will disincentivise banks from #hoarding #liquidity&coax them to lend

#Covid
Read 10 tweets
#AatmaNirbharBharatAbhiyan
Based on 👇

Land,Labour,Liquidity&Laws that are not isolationist but inclusive

Ease of Doing Business

DBT,JanDhan,Aadhar, Micro Insurance,Ujjwala Yojana, Ayushman Bharat, PM Awaas Yojana,PM FasalBima Yojana,Krishi Sinchai,Swachh Bharat--Key Landmarks
GST,IBC&PSU Bank Recapitalisation in last 6 yrs,have been big reforms

52606Cr given via #DBT to 41Cr #JanDhan holders

Free wheat&rice to 69Cr ration card holders

18000Cr tax refunds given

Free cylinders to 8Cr #Ujjwala holders

#20lakhcrores #COVIDー19
#atmanirbharbharat
Project DevelopmentCells,working for Promotion of Champion Sectors,in States

#MakeInIndia&Upgradation of Industrial Infra,a success&more will be done to #Decongest economy

3376 SEZs&IndustrialParks with 5 lakhhectares,to be ranked& mapped,in terms of readiness for competition
Read 20 tweets
RBI has announced Rs 50000 Cr #SpecialLiquidityFacility for #mutualfunds,to ease redemption pressures

#RBI will conduct #Repo operations of 90 days tenor at fixed repo rate

This Special Facility is on-tap,open-ended&will particularly help #DebtSchemes of MFs,witnessing outflows
#SpecialLiquidityFacility for #mutualfunds is available from today,April 27,2020 till May 11, 2020,or up to utilization of allocated amount of Rs 50000Cr whichever is earlier

@narendramodi govt's calibrated approach to calm down frayed nerves,is timely&noteworthy

#coronavirus
Funds availed under this facility shall be used by banks solely for meeting #liquidity requirements of #mutualfunds by 👇

Extending loans

Outright purchase of #Repos

Or against collateral of corporate bonds,commercial papers, debentures&certificate of deposits,held by #MFs👍
Read 6 tweets
Finally, after so much wait, @RBI Governer comes out to provide much needed relief to economy - key announcements thread:

#RBI #economy #rbigovernor
1. Yes, even after all the projections of economic growth slip, India might still stay at the top of global economic growth chart (As per IMF).

#IMF #GDP
2. NBFCs, this time RBI has looked out for you.

TLTRO 2.0 - targeted long term repo operations of INR 50k crore ease the liqudiity issues, specifically for NBFCs.

#NBFC
Read 9 tweets
The @federalreserve has announced its decision to reinstate funding facilities for #CommercialPaper (CP) this morning, which we expected it was likely to have to do.
That’s because the #financial plumbing system has been challenged. A case in point: #volatility in overnight funding #markets was on display yesterday, with the intraday trading range for #Treasury general collateral a remarkable 300 basis points (-0.25% to 2.75%).
The overarching theme in the #funding space is a simple lack of balance sheet capacity - primary #dealers are being stretched, and while general collateral has been #trading in a more orderly manner this morning we’re still trading at a wide spread to #IOER.
Read 4 tweets
Bugünkü bazuka kararlardan sonra FED'in aylık #repo programı güncellendi. 4 hafta içinde FED bilançosuna girebilecek repoları alt alta bir toplayayım dedim. Bu kadar teminat getirilmesi imkansız ama $4.3 trilyon olan mevcut bilanço teorik olarak $10 trilyona vurabilir 😱 Image
Paraya ihtiyacı olan arkadaşlarla, FED'e başvurabilen ve repo yapılabilir teminatı olan dostlar birbiriyle tam örtüşmüyor. Sistemdeki bu yapısal tıkanıklığı FED gündelik işlemleriyle çözemiyor. Yani pratikte bilanço $6 trilyonu geçse (likidite bağlamında) yine iyidir...
Ortam o kadar karışık ki, normalde sansasyon olacak nadide giriş cümlesi bile zayıf kaldı: "Tahvil alım programımıza FRN'leri, uzun tahvilleri ve enflasyon endekslileri ekledik. MBS'ler de aynen."

Bu ne demek?
QE4 resmen başladı. Dow'a, Tesla'ya, spekülasyona hayırlı olsun 😌
Read 5 tweets
For the second time this week, we’ve seen a greater than 7% #market decline in SPX; the @CBOE’s index of equity market volatility resides in the 60s, far above historical averages.
Further, meaningful fiscal #policy support may come down the road, but as of right now #political gridlock in Washington continues to be the order of the day.
For these reasons, we think that the @federalreserve is very likely to step up to the plate again with further policy easing, and sooner rather than later, in our estimation.
Read 7 tweets
"The Great Wall Street Housing Grab

Hundreds of thousands of single-family homes are now in the hands of giant companies — squeezing renters for revenue and putting the American dream even further out of reach."

#FedHistory #MissionAccomplished

archive.fo/wTRBR
Say hello to your new German landlord, America!
Or maybe you'd prefer someone from China? It's not like you can afford to compete with these buyers.
Read 23 tweets
1/ "The global credit machine is grinding to a halt." That's why fin mkts are seizing--China was the marginal source of credit creation globally for yrs, & fin mkts depend on credit creation to keep prices high. Price discovery has been distorted for yrs. creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2020/02/weekly…
2/ As usual, my Saturday☕️ includes reading Doug Noland's #CreditBubbleBulletin--he has carefully chronicled colossal credit bubble for years. Historians will view his contrarian work as invaluable to understanding why things happened as they did, & not as mainstream predicted...
3/ A few nuggets I've concluded from experience+yrs of reading Doug & others who truly understand what's going on:
* Big banks aren't well-capitalized enuf to handle this; shld be raising equity capital FAST. This was clear last Fall during #repo scare--long b4 #coronavirus hit
Read 8 tweets
It seems like a good time to remind everyone, why we are heading into an economic crisis.

A thread on the fragility of the global #economy.

There, naturally, is no other place to start than this.👇 1/
@CNBCJulianna @KellyCNBC @SaraEisen @GeoffCutmore
Yet, everything begins from the GFC.

Like we noted in a blog published on the 10th anniversary of the failure of Lehman Brothers, very little has actually been fixed in the global financial system.👇 2/
gnseconomics.com/2018/09/14/10-…
While the US banks are now bigger than before 2008 crisis, the biggest problems lay in Europe.

The European banks remained under-capitalized and filled with toxic assets, and the policies of the #ECB made everything worse. 👇 3/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/10/…
Read 14 tweets
1/ GREAT NUGGETS of wisdom from Doug Noland's post...gets me thinking on Saturdays☕️. FIRST, is #coronavirus just usual media fearmongering or a tragedy that could prick the huge credit bubble? Just
as banks can stay liquid LONG after they're insolvent... creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2020/01/weekly…
2/ ...entire economies can stay afloat long after their balance sheets are used up too, as long as credit keeps flowing. Credit capacity for most of the developed world is mostly used up (it's why interest rates are negative in many places), but they're still afloat. Why?
3/ ...Because no event has yet triggered a reckoning that reveals the insolvency. (Again, banks can stay in biz for a long time after they're insolvent.) Markets clearly worry that #coronavirus might be such a trigger--Doug details the huge mkt moves this week in reaction to it.
Read 18 tweets

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