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1 in 4 flippers sold their homes for LESS $$$ than expected in our 4Q22 survey. Elevated rates and falling home prices are scaring buyers wary of buying on the way down, but investors are clearly looking to acquire now and refinance later. 🧵Flipper comments to follow ->
#Austin flipper: “Austin has an overinflated housing market that is compounded by elevated interest rates. This has resulted in a downward spiral in qualified buyers. The fix and flip market is pretty much gone. Prices in most areas are down about -30% or more in recent months.”
#Baltimore flipper: “We’re looking forward to a big 2023. I hate to say it, but a lot of it’s going to be on the backs of consumers with hardships, or circumstances where they have no other options. But that’s our bread and butter.”
Home builder construction costs finally cooling. Market commentary from our December survey of builders signals relief on the horizon...
#Dallas builder: “Hard costs continue to dip on average $3K-$5K per month. We are pushing back hard to lower our average labor and material costs. They must come down to reflect lower home selling prices.”
#Denver builder: “Almost all the home builders I am talking to are working on cost reductions. They range from -5% to -8% per plan.”
August home builder sentiment and sales/prices/starts survey results are in. Top themes: 1) Home price cuts along with other incentives are helping sales (for now). 2) Supply chain is healing as demand drops and builders quickly slow housing starts. Market commentary to follow…
#Austin builder: “A lot of spec inventory to work through. August was a very poor month for sales across the board. Cancellations spiked from July and buyers showed no sense of urgency.”
#Baltimore builder: “Jumbo loan rates below 5% are helping buyers move forward in that segment.”
Results from our survey of #FixAndFlip investors are in. The fix-and-flip market is clearly cracking: higher rates have shrunk the # of buyers + the # feasible deals. Buyers are also cautious about overpaying given falling prices (cutting into flipper margins).
COMMENTARY🧵->
COMMENTARY🧵->
#Atlanta flipper: “Much higher risk environment due to rising rates. Sellers still have not reset expectations from earlier this year, so acquisitions have essentially come to a halt.” (2/19)
#Baltimore flipper: “The market for fix and flip has turned. It is now a buyer's market and there are a lot of investors competing for the same property. I have put in several offers on a few properties that have good potential but have not been able to get the contract.” (3/19)
June home builder sentiment and survey results are in. Top themes: 1) A lot more new home buyers cancelling. 2) Price cuts becoming fairly common. 3) Drop in demand finally cooling construction cost pressures (builder layoffs also happening). Market commentary to follow…
#Atlanta builder: “Someone turned out the lights on our sales in June!”
#Austin builder: “Sales have fallen off a cliff. We’re selling 1/3 of what we sold in March and April. Trades are more willing to negotiate pricing since market has adjusted significantly past 60 days.”
May homebuilder survey results published last week. Top themes: 1) Builder metrics quickly deteriorating across the board. 2) Price cuts on standing ‘speculative’ inventory accelerating. 3) Buyer incentives are back. Market commentary to follow…
#Austin builder: “Some parts of town where finished homes are now taking a month to sell versus hours. Market is definitely correcting. Incentives are back and seeing some builders cutting prices on inventory.”
#Baltimore builder: “Customers now mentioning potential reduction in prices and/or increase in incentives.”
April homebuilder survey results are here. Top themes: 1) Demand is slowing, namely entry-level due to payment shock. 2) Investors are pulling back. 3) Ripple effect of rising rates starting to hit move-up market. Market commentary to follow…
#Dallas builder: “Interest lists are shrinking or buyers are truly pausing.”
#Houston builder: “Many first-time buyers simply no longer qualify with the increase in interest rates, as their debt-to-income ratio gets out of whack.”
Home builder survey results are in for full month of December. Top themes: 1) Still a ton of demand for new homes. 2) Rampant construction material & labor shortages. 3) Bit of chatter on possible margin compression several quarters ahead. Market commentary to follow…
#Atlanta builder: “Have virtually no available inventory & huge backlog of 1,000+ units going in to 2022. Still metering sales in most communities, where the demand of waiting buyers still outnumbers our supply.”
#LasVegas builder: “Busiest orders for December I can remember in a long time.”
Monthly pulse of resale housing market still rapid according to 4,500 agents we just surveyed. Top 3 themes: 1) Bit of market normalizing. 2) Skittish sellers fearing nowhere to move. 3) End of travel ban boosting international buyers. Commentary across the country to follow…
#Houston resale agent: “A lot of people are not listing because they don't know where they are going next. Seems that many people listed too high even for a sellers' market, so I am seeing more price reductions now than earlier in the year.”
#Orlando resale agent: “Our buyer pool is increasing. We see more buyers from the north connecting with us as they plan to visit the area from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year.”
Fresh October home builder survey results. Top themes: 1) Builders are finally lifting sales caps (though not all). 2) Lack of lots & land development delays will hold back growth in 2022. 3) Most builders expect prices to keep rising. Market commentary to follow…
#ColoradoSprings builder: “One cautious trend to watch is single-family rental businesses paying more for land than builders. This will suck up trade capacity & supply at a time we can't afford it.”
#Denver builder: “Traffic & sales definitely slowing down, but also following a more seasonal pattern as compared to 2020. Resale inventory is still historically low. Rents are skyrocketing again.”
Some new data & market commentary on who's buying land from our 3Q-2021 land broker survey. Build-for-rent operators snapping up 15% of raw land in #Florida & outbidding home builders on deals across many markets. Couple charts & market commentary to follow... 
Here's the chart where we asked land brokers if they've observed build-for-rent operators outbidding home builders on land deals in their market. 46% said 'yes' when we rolled it up nationally, and as high as 77% in the Southeast.
#Phoenix land broker: “A lot of speculators in the build-for-rent space that are tying properties up & going through entitlement process, then flipping the property for an increased price. Equity requirements for the build-for-rent projects are getting larger.”
Just published September home builder survey results (sales, prices, costs, communities, etc.). Big themes: 1) Supply chain, supply chain, supply chain. 2) Monthly price hikes no longer the norm. 3) Some of the hottest markets sounding toppy. Market commentary to follow…
#Austin builder: “No end in sight for labor & material issues. Told by logistics guy last week that his company believes it will take at least a year to get the supply chain back to working.”
#Austin builder: “Availability of windows has limited closings this year & availability of appliances has caused closings to slide to a later month. Availability of paint is stressing Q4 closings & causing even more bunching toward late in the year.”
Companies tied to housing revising guidance due to supply chain. Commentary from our builder survey this month indicates things getting worse before they get better. Homes sitting, waiting for materials (dead days). Big delays in windows. Delta outbreaks. In sum, a crapshoot. 🧵
#Nashville builder: “It's a crap shoot. Some municipalities will issue permits in 1 week, & others are 6-9 months behind. Supply chain is a mess. Windows are now 7 months out, cabinets are 6 months out, etc.”
#Chicago builder: “Build cycle increased due to backordered materials including bathtubs, appliances, & ceramic tile. Trades are much more limited in availability & now have some ‘dead days’ with no activity.”
Analyzing July new home trends from our just published monthly builder survey. Top 3 themes: 1) Frenzy phase for housing is over, but still solid demand. 2) Fewer builders restricting sales. 3) Hitting price ceilings in more markets. Commentary from across the country to follow.
#Austin builder: “Builders are starting to offer incentives again to drive traffic and sales.”
#Dallas builder: “We have hit price ceilings in the majority of our submarkets.”
Land is the most important yet least transparent part of homebuilding. To help, here’s commentary from land brokers across the country per our July survey. Top themes: 1) Builders going further out for deals. 2) Bigger land deals are back. 3) Development delays & lot shortages.
#SaltLakeCity land broker: “You can't get all the lots you need even when you overpay.”
#SanAntonio land broker: “Getting a vaccine approved took less time than getting land entitled.”
Analyzing June new home sales & pricing figures from our monthly builder survey. As one builder noted: “It’s not fun to be a builder anymore.” Lumber relief is nice but pick your poison on other issues. Market commentary from across the country to follow...
#Richmond builder: “It's not fun to be a builder anymore. Cost pressure is killing us. Not only will builders like myself who take 12-24 months to build a house lose margin from increases, but the affordability is becoming a major issue.”
#Atlanta builder: “Costs have driven up prices & we’re no longer preselling. We will not sell a home until frame stage, so our sales numbers are off for June while awaiting framing stage.”
Here's a housing🧵to chew on over weekend. Mid-June update from 100+home builders across country. 1) rumblings of price ceiling. 2) slightly shrinking pool of qualified buyers. 3) some home releases not selling out immediately. 4) normal summer slowing as vacations take priority.
#Austin builder: “Some interest lists are shrinking & others are not. Seeing buyers who are no longer able or willing to afford the monthly payment. Definitely seeing attrition here. Frustration that prices continued going up without an opportunity to purchase.”
#Dallas builder: “Interest lists are definitely shrinking because of pricing. Some drop off is happening due to price. But the re-sale market is still so tight it hasn’t dropped substantially. Extremely concerned about pricing going forward.”
New home sales fell in May, Y/Y & M/M. Theme of the month was sales decline by builder design. Few comments on demand slowing or skittish buyers, even w/new home prices +18% Y/Y nationally (survey record). Builder commentary from across the country per our survey to follow...
#Nashville builder: “Gapped out. Sales resume in June as new communities & phases start to open. By moving ability to contract on inventory homes later to finished drywall stage (window installation stage previously), expect sales to show continued decline. Decline by design.”
#Charlotte builder: “Paused sales from mid-May to mid-June in all communities & will selectively release homes for sale in the last 2 weeks of June & coming months. Sales look lower vs. last month but was capped due to limited lot availability & no inventory.”
Some interesting housing color from mid-April around the country home builder channel check. Bunch of market commentary to follow...will try to hit most top markets.
#SaltLakeCity home builder mid-April color: “Still have 10x buyers to available homes to buy. Went to 'highest/ best' offer system March 1st & offers over asking price are shocking. Most offers are 10+% over ask, that's after raised base prices $10K to $20K+ with each release.”
#Austin home builder mid-April color: “Super high demand. Volume controlled with release process, otherwise would be unbearable. Some price increases are $100K between releases.”
