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Katy Hayward @hayward_katy
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Interesting polling covering GB, NI & IRL. More evidence of layering of Leave/Remain differences upon existing polarisation within NI.
This is why zero-sum (ie land v. sea #border) #brexit narratives (& poss. outcomes) pose direct risks to peace & the Agmt lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/06/brexit…
I can't help but say, tho, that the phrasing of some of the Qs asked is unfortunate, e.g. on possible 'different status' of NI (ref. customs checks in sea ports) or a hard border risking paramilitary attacks.
This serves to *perpetuate* distortions of sensitive & nuanced matters.
+ as for the statement (for respondents to agree/disagree with) on technological solutions --
"Modern technology would allow any customs checks to be done quickly and easily, so a border would not be damaging or disruptive" --
What purpose/value does this have in an opinion poll?
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Today UK govt published its unilateral 'commitments to Northern Ireland & its integral place in the UK'.
I'd read it not just as an effort to get unionists on board #WithdrawalAgmt but a nod towards post-Brexit governance.
Here’s an ‘essentials’ guide..
1/
 assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
It comes on the 2nd anniversary of the collapse of the NI Executive.
I really hope that isn’t a coincidence.
& if it isn't, it's a pointed reminder to those who claim to be concerned abt the representation of NI that they cd put more effort into getting Stormont up & running.
2/
The DUP came out quickly to reject it, underwhelmed & unconvinced.
Others will be too, but we cdn’t expect detail or substance on commitments at this stage.
(Besides, perhaps it's a duty of politicians in NI to bring forward proposals re: enhancing representation of NI..?)
3/
Read 12 tweets
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‘A Better Deal’?
bit.ly/2PCZh5S

If you are looking for a workable alternative to the Protocol on NI/IRL in the #WithdrawalAgreement, & if you are worried about @BorderIrish & @BelfastAgmt, I'm afraid this isn't it.

Here's a thread that is as tight as possible.
1/
First, don’t be fooled by the legalise & jargon.

It cannot be a serious legal text if it assumes that parties can simply “agree not to place physical infrastructure or introduce related checks and controls on the Irish border in any circumstances” (as per para 2).

2/
It is not in the gift of these parties to make such a guarantee without proper consideration of consequences for their international trade partners + responsibilities to their own consumers.

What this proposes in terms of 'Irish border measures' doesn't cut it (more anon.).
3/
Read 20 tweets
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Here we go: Very initial impressions of the #WithdrawalAgreement's Protocol on NI/IRL #backstop, drawing heavily on UK Explainer of the same. tinyurl.com/ydfrvcdc 1/8
First, some general points I think are worth noting, mainly about how the UK is trying to frame it & what has changed in the Preamble to the #Protocol.
2/8
To the #backstop, which is now about avoiding north/south AND east/west barriers... at least at face value.
UK keen to emphasise its temporary nature & unlikely implementation.
Initial decision on whether it comes into force will have to be made by 1 July 2020 & by the UK.
3/8
Read 8 tweets

Related threads

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#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
2/ The rest of the world is left listening to Britain’s therapy session as they drone on about their ex-spouse, unable to see, admit or address their own flaws.
3/ The promise of Brexit was that it would make Britain feel big again. “Britain is special,” the Brexiteers assured British voters, who cast their ballots accordingly. But Brexit has proven that for the first time in modern history, Britain is small.
Read 22 tweets
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#Evidence
1. On June 18, 1957, after checking with Maulana Kalam Azad and Dr.Rajendra Prasad, Durga Das wrote the following line in his weekly column in The Hindustan Times, “if he (Nehru) is consciously trying to build anyone as his successor, he is building up his daughter.”
More #Evidence Mr. Tharoor-
2. Indira Gandhi went with Nehru to all political and administrative functions and got introduced to all the state leaders of the Congress party 🤔
#Evidence
3. Indira addressed election meetings, presided over Congress women’s committees, acted as hostess when Nehru entertained visitors and he took her with him when he traveled abroad😌
Read 6 tweets
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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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Olly Robbins is in Brussels today for more #Brexit talks.

Top of the agenda is the 'insoluble' Irish backstop issue - but how 'insoluble' it really? Is there a way through?

Maybe. Some thoughts after chats with both sides. 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
First, the problem, real quick.

EU needs 'backstop' that works in all eventualities, including a breakdown in future relationship talks at the end of transition.

With no border in Ireland, there "must" logically be checks between NI and GB to protect single market. /2
The problem is that puts a *customs* border in the Irish Sea, and the UK government cannot live with that, since it splits up UK.

Theresa May was very hard over on this point in her speech in Belfast. Barnier's Task Force 50 blanched last week when they saw how hard over. /3
Read 22 tweets
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Reading and tweeting HMG's White Paper.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Starting with the conclusions (always the best bit)
1 Principled and practical are TM's new adjectves for #Brexit, which sounds conciliatory and is the sort of thing the EU do want to hear.
2
a Frictionless trade at the border (specific border not stated)
b UK out CAP & Fisheries, but in on crime & terror & shared prosperity fund
c No hard Border between NI & I, but protect the Union
d End of CJEU in UK, return "accountability" to the various elected assemblies
Read 59 tweets
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1. The #Brexit question has always been one of what sort of relationship we want with the EU if not actual membership. Brexiters bleat "we just want trade" failing to note that regulatory harmonisation is central to free movement of goods.
2. The minimum condition of entry into the EU marketplace is compliance. Any third country can do that but without the ability to self-certify goods for circulation in the market they are subject to full third country controls at the borders.
3. Members of the single market avoid those customs controls by way of having the ability to self certify goods. This is why the single market is more pertinent to free movement of goods than the customs union.
Read 22 tweets

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