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Guy de Jonquières
@guydej1
, 9 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1/ Thread @JLongworthLML John Longworth of Leave Means Leave was on BBC WATO saying that most trade in the world is done on basis of "WTO rules" and that most countries trade with the EU on that basis. Every part of that statement is wrong and betrays breathtaking ignorance.
2/ The UK already trades on "WTO rules", as does every other WTO member, and always has done. It's a requirement of WTO membership. What Longworth seems to mean is "WTO terms", which is quite different: these are the basic MFN commitments made by WTO members.
3/ Not one single country trades on "WTO terms" for the simple reason that they all know that it would be massively disadvantageous and economically damaging. That is why all WTO members have preferential trade agreements with others.
4/ It is equally wrong to say that most countries trade with the EU on "WTO terms". The EU currently has preferential trade arrangements (PTAs) with ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHTY other countries that provide for lower tariffs. Here is the UK government's list: bit.ly/2KdAHXn
5/ According to the US Congressional Research Service, 70% of EU exports benefited from PTAS in 2008 and the proportion has almost certainly increased since then. That is an advantage that the UK would lose immediately if it moved to "WTO terms".
6/ Even trade with the US, with which the EU has no PTA, is governed by about 20 bilateral agreements covering vital sectors such as air transport. Moving to "WTO terms" without negotiating them would mean that many UK transatlantic flights would be grounded immediately..
7/ With barely nine months to go until B-day `(it sounds even better in French) such negotiations have yet to get seriously under way - like those on replacing more than 750 other EU treaties with third countries that immediately lapse at the same time.
8/ Does Mr Longworth really not know any of this? Or does he know it and is deliberately saying things he knows to be untrue? I am copying this to him and look forward to his answer. If he remains silent or blocks me, the answer will be pretty obvious.
No response from @JLongworthLML yet. But with a weekend coming up, `I'm sure he will find time to explain his views. Not doing so or blocking will mean he can`'t.
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Guy de Jonquières
@guydej1
This is the kind of thinking that turned foreign aid budgets into slush funds for producer interests in donor countries, until their governments agreed to untie aid, and led to the Pergau dam scandal. Has May learned nothing from history? bit.ly/2PbxhWO
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2. International Development Act 2002 and would violate commitments on untying made in the OECD DAC. There are other reasons why tying aid again would be bad. It is blatant protectionism that reduces international competition and means recipients get poor value for money. It has
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Guy de Jonquières
@guydej1
Another thread. Thanks for all who retweeted/responded to the earlier one. Now some thoughts specifically about the UK’s positioning and prospects on negotiating on trade with the EU, with the 40-odd countries with which it has trade agreements and with others such as the US.
2. First, I commend the UK Trade Forum blog by David Henig, until recently a Department for International Trade official on how woefully unprepared the government seems to be for trade negotiations uktradeforum.net/2018/05/14/wha…
3. The government’s reported failure to listen properly to business and other constituencies about what they want out of trade deals. That means it risks entering negotiations without a clear idea of the national interest or domestic allies and spells trouble down the line.
Read 14 tweets
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Guy de Jonquières
@guydej1
Thread. I have never negotiated an international agreement. However, I dedicated a decade of my life to watching at close quarters some of the world’s smartest and most effective trade negotiators in action. Here are some lessons I learned.
1. Master every aspect of your brief and ensure you understand fully what you are dealing with down to the finest technical detail.
2. Spend a long time developing your negotiating objectives and strategy. Define your offensive and defensive goals and decide where you are prepared to compromise. Never set out rigid red lines in advance.
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N°1: you assert, "Britain traded perfectly well for the large chunk of history it has spent outside the EU." This is a spurious argument. The EU didn't exist then. We are going from the best possible trade terms with the EU (SM+CU) to worst (#WTO).
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1/ This #Get2KnowWTO campaign is really a new low for the hard brexiters. This has gone from moronic flag-waving to something approaching outright disinformation. NO WTO experts think that WTO is a good option for the UK. NONE. #Brexit #WTO
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John Redwood
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