Another thread. Thanks for all who retweeted/responded to the earlier one. Now some thoughts specifically about the UK’s positioning and prospects on negotiating on trade with the EU, with the 40-odd countries with which it has trade agreements and with others such as the US.
2. First, I commend the UK Trade Forum blog by David Henig, until recently a Department for International Trade official on how woefully unprepared the government seems to be for trade negotiations uktradeforum.net/2018/05/14/wha…
3. The government’s reported failure to listen properly to business and other constituencies about what they want out of trade deals. That means it risks entering negotiations without a clear idea of the national interest or domestic allies and spells trouble down the line.
4. (Full disclosure: David and I are co-founders of UKTF, which groups most or many of the UK’s trade policy experts. Our only agenda is to present the facts and reasoned arguments honestly, accurately and impartially).
5. Failure to consult key interest groups properly means that the EU27 and the Commission probably have a much clearer idea than Britain’s own government of its strengths and weaknesses. After all, the Commission has handled UK trade policy for 45 years so knows a lot.
6. The Commission, the US, Australia, NZ - indeed almost everyone else - have crack teams of battle-hardened negotiators with collective centuries of experience. Britain, by contrast, has not negotiated a trade deal for almost half a century and has very few experienced
7. of its own. Bizarrely, it also has two departments charged with negotiating on supposedly different types of trade deals that are in fact closely intertwined. Not obviously a formula for coherent policy making.
8. Contrary to what Brexiteers say, the world is not full of countries falling over themselves to open their markets to UK goods and services. That they say such things shows how little they know or understand about trade negotiations. These are a dog-eat-dog battle.
9. Trade negotiators aren’t paid to be nice to other countries. They’re paid to fight to get the best possible deal for their own and for their producers. So they will press the UK hard to open its market to their exports while resisting its demands that they open theirs.
10. English as a shared language and some common cultural traits may help the UK to communicate with the US and Commonwealth countries. But it cuts no ice with them when it comes to promoting their own economic interests and he ce of clinching deals.
11. There is still time for the UK government to get on top of all this. However, if the UK forges a customs union deal with the EU, that won’t be needed, as it would eliminate or severely limit scope for an independent trade policy. But in reality, how big a loss would that be?
12. Two other challenges for the UK. First, in trade negotiations, size matters - a lot. Big economies wield more clout than smaller ones, because access to their markets is more valuable. UK is at best mid-sized in trade terms, with a falling growth rate.
13. Second, the Brexiters have made freedom to do trade deals the banner of their cause, so they have to do some - even if they’re poor ones - for political reasonsjust to show they can. Not doing any would suggest failire. But that makes the UK a demandeur. Other governments
14. know that and will take advantage of it. That is not a comfortable position for the UK to be in.
