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Thiemo Fetzer @fetzert
, 8 tweets, 9 min read Read on Twitter
New @cage_warwick paper with @EleAla on "Who is NOT voting for Brexit anymore?" Using local area estimates from @chrishanretty based on data from a 20k @Survation poll we study how the level & geography of support for Leave has changed since 2016... 1/
Swing away from #Leave is widespread and happening broadly across the UK, specifically in England, Wales, Cornwall and the North. Overall estimated level of support for Leave is 6 percentage points lower across UK, but masks significant heterogeneity. 2/
We follow similar approach as in earlier work with @essobecker and @DennisNovy to decompose the geographic variation to identify which factors are capturing the variation across the UK in the swing away from #Leave to #Remain.... 3/
Swing towards #remain is happening along some key socio-economic characteristics of local areas...indicating possibly, that voters were ill-informed about the negative implications and the true trade-offs facing #BrexitBritain. 4/
For example: the degree to which an area's economy is dependent on trade with the EU was positively associated with higher levels of support for Leave in 2016. This measure is now a significant correlate capturing the swing to Remain. Similarly, receipt of EU Structural Funds 5/
Most importantly, areas with significant exposure to #Austerity since 2010 are most likely to see the most pronounced swing to remain. Exposure to austerity is the single most important correlate capturing variation in swing towards #Remain across UK. Lots of #RemainerNow 's?6/
In a map, this link is even starker -- #austerity hit areas, that swung the #EURef to #Leave in 2016 are among those that most strongly swing back to support #remain -- suggests #Labour party is getting it wrong, #Leave support in labor heartlands not due to die-heart leavers 7/
More details in the paper, but the implications are that #peoplesvote may have a strong case. Read the whole paper here @D_Blanchflower @ImranRasul3 @warwicknewsroom @BenChu_ @MarionLHour @CarolineGruyter @bueti @warwickecon /end
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