THREAD: Why Trump *Really* Won
There are a lot of theories about why Trump won. Some say liberals became complacent and lazy, took a Democratic victory for granted, and didn't come out to vote. Some say conservatives were energized because of the condescending and elitist...
There are a lot of theories about why Trump won. Some say liberals became complacent and lazy, took a Democratic victory for granted, and didn't come out to vote. Some say conservatives were energized because of the condescending and elitist...
...attitudes of liberals out of touch with the needs of regular Americans. Some warn that Trump will win again if you don't put up a fight and resist in every way possible. Others warn that speaking up too much is why Trump won in the first place.
I think all of these people are wrong. There is one rule that has predicted every winner in every US presidential election at least since Kennedy-Nixon in 1960: the candidate with more charisma wins. That's it. I invite you to bring forth any exception to this rule. Kennedy and..
Nixon had the first televised presidential debate ever in 1960. TV was a relatively new medium, and the smooth-talking, charismatic Kennedy was a natural at it. Nixon wasn't. People who just heard it on the radio thought Nixon won. Those who watched it on TV thought Kennedy did.
Kennedy went on to win the election. From then until now, the candidate with more charisma has won. Every time. Now, you may be thinking of some notably UN-charismatic presidents, like George H.W. Bush, who won in 1988. In that case,Bush Senior ran against Michael Dukakis, who is
famous for having even LESS charisma. Of course, when newbie Bill Clinton—Mr. Charisma himself—came out of nowhere to run against Bush Senior in 1992, he won handily. Clinton was challenged in 1996 by the very uncharismatic, decorated WWII veteran Bob Dole, but won again...
In 2000, Bush Junior did much better against the monotonous, catchphrase-y Al Gore, who sounded like a robot. Having learned nothing, the Dems ran John Kerry (another war hero) against Bush in 2004, who was long-winded and professorial. Then, Obama—another newbie out of nowhere—
came around and trounced John McCain (yet another beloved war hero!) in 2008, winning re-election four years later against Stepford-husband-automaton Mitt Romney. Now on to Trump. Trump has an insane amount of charisma. He riles up crowds, drives ratings through the roof, and
knows how to keep the media and everyone else (including me, I admit) yapping about him constantly. As George Orwell wrote about another leader once (Google it), "If he were killing a mouse, he would know how to make it seem like a dragon." Trump has a clear story that
even his detractors can summarize in simple words: "Make America Great Again. Build the wall. Lock her up. The system is rigged." Etc. Obama had the same. "Hope. Change. Yes, we can." So did Clinton. So did Reagan (who denounced the yawn-inducing Mondale 49 states to 1 in 1984).
But he ran against Hillary, who is known for the exact opposite of charisma, and rather than a high-level story that appealed to emotion, offered a PDF of policy-heavy bullet points. In retrospect, it seems even clearer now that she wasn't going to win. In retrospect, the fact
that she actually got more votes than Trump seems more surprising than her loss. This is the lesson Democrats should learn. Charisma is the only factor that has consistently determined the winner of every presidential election. There's no exception I can think of.
Charismatic leaders can reach people through hope and inspiration (Obama, Reagan) or through fear and collective anger (Trump, Brexit). When you have infectious charisma, nothing else matters—race, age, sex, all moot..
The worst thing Dems can do is treat 2020 like a policy election, or run a policy candidate. There's no one on the Dem side I can think of who beats Trump when it comes to charisma except Bernie Sanders (even an older Bernie Sanders). Even Oprah has a higher chance of beating him
Even Oprah has a higher chance of beating him than any current Democratic contender. Unless another (Bill) Clinton or Obama emerges sometime between now and 2020, you're looking at another four years of Trump, and perhaps two or three more SCOTUS appointments.
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